ACC Bubble Analysis for February 4, 2013

It’s February so if your’re going to make a move towards the NCAA tournament you better start now…

In my ranking system, any RPIw top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater than 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams where I think they’d placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

Locks

(1) Duke (19-2) (6-2) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (8) Minnesota, * (9) Louisville, * (39) VCU, * (17) Ohio St, (55) Temple, * (46) Kentucky, (89) Santa Clara, (71) Maryland, (61) Florida State, (95) Florida Gulf Coast

Bad Losses -None

Notes – It looks like Duke is starting to figure out how to play without Ryan Kelly. Duke can earn a NCAA number 1 seed and still may not be the ACC’s best team which right now is Miami.

(2) Miami (17-3) (8-0) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – (54) UNC Charlotte, * (13) Michigan St., * (47) Massachusetts, * (29) LaSalle, * (34) North Carolina, (72) Detroit, (71) Maryland, * (1) Duke, (69) Florida State, * (20) NC State

Bas Losses –  None

Notes – Who says ACC basketball is down when you have the nation’s top two RPI teams. I had to put Miami as 2 seed, because Duke’s resume is just a hair stronger. Duke has the 2 top 10 non-conference RPI wins and 1 more top 25 win 3-2.  I know the Canes have the head to head win so it’s really close. Miami is probably the strongest 2 seed out there.

(20) North Carolina State (16-6) (5-4) Projected Seed 6

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (23) Connecticut, * (47) Massachusetts, (67) Stanford, * (1) Duke, * (34) North Carolina, (90) Western Michigan

Bad Losses – (131) Wake Forest, (107) Virginia

Notes – NC State is in no danger of missing the NCAA tournament, but they keep losing close games and have now lost 4 of their last 6. This week’s game at Duke will do the Wolfpack no favors, but if they pull off a win, it would certainly be a statement.

(34) North Carolina (15-6) (5-3) Projected Seed 9

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins –  * (19) UNLV, (61) Florida State, (71) Maryland

Bad Losses – (142) Texas, (107) Virginia

Notes –  Why do I think the NCAA committee is eyeing an 8-9 game between North Carolina and Kentucky? The Heels head to Miami Saturday to see if they can be the team to slow the Hurricanes freight train.

Bubble But In

(71) Maryland (16-6) (4-5) Projected Seed 12

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (20) NC State, (86) Northwestern, (81) Stony Brook

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The Terps are doing just enough to stay in the NCAA picture, but can’t afford any slip ups. A loss this week at Virginia Tech, where the Hokies can be tough would be just that. There’s also a bubble defining game with Virginia in College Park.

Bubble But Out

(107) Virginia (15-6) (5-3)

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (84) Tennessee, * (41) Wisconsin, * (34) North Carolina, (61) Florida State, * (20) NC State

Bad Losses – * (171) Delaware, * (327) Old Dominion, (139) Clemson, (131) Wake Forest, (129) George Mason, (121) Georgia Tech

Notes – The Cavaliers promptly followed the big NC State win, with discouraging loss at Georgia Tech. This past week  I read where the Old Dominion home loss cost UVA 30 RPI spots. I just can’t put them in the Big Dance until they break into the RPI top 80.

(69) Florida State (12-9) (4-4)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – (78) St. Josephs, * (37) BYU, (54) Charlotte, (71) Maryland, (71) Maryland

Bad Losses – * (163) South Alabama, * (168) Mercer, * (215) Auburn, (107) Virginia

Notes – Florida State has what Virginia wants, decent computer numbers. Florida State if they can get on a bit of a roll can still sneak into the Big Dance. Two winnable but dangerous road games are this week at Georgia Tech and at Wake Forest. Win both and FSU might be right on top of the bubble.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(121) Georgia Tech (12-8) (2-6)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – (58) St. Marys.

Bad Losses – (147) Virginia Tech, (139) Clemson

Notes – This is what you’re going see in the ACC this year. The bottom of the conference is good enough to wreak havoc on anyone not named Duke or Miami. Wake Forest already knocked off NC State, and now Georgia Tech gut punched Virginia’s NCAA chances beating them this past week. They can do the same to Florida State this Tuesday.

(131) Wake Forest (10-11) (3-6)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – (77) Xavier, * (20) NC State

Bad Losses –   (102) Seton Hall, (147) Virginia Tech, (139) Clemson, (121) Georgia Tech

Notes – Wake Forest has lost 2 of their last 3 games by 20 points or more, and have only won 1 game since January 12th. That’s the Jeff Bdzelik we know and love.

(139) Clemson (12-9) (4-5)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – (74) UTEP

Bad Losses – (135) Purdue, * (270) Coastal Carolina, (150) Boston College

Notes – The Tigers are pretty good at home and pretty bad on the road. If you can’t win on the road you aren’t going to the NCAAs.

(147) Virginia Tech (11-10) (2-6) 

Last 10 – (2-8)

Good Wins –  * (31) Oklahoma St,  (88) Iowa

Bad Losses – *(261) Georgia Southern, (150) Boston College, (107) Virginia, (139) Clemson

Notes – If the Hokies are to salvage something out of this season, it better start this week with home games against Maryland and Georgia Tech.

(150) Boston College (10-11) (2-6)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – NONE

Bad Losses –  (131) Wake Forest, (137) Bryant, * (156) Charleston, (120) Dayton, (107) Virginia

Notes – The Eagles snapped a 5 game ACC losing streak with a win over Clemson. Good luck this week with a game Miami then the opportunity to host Duke.

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