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Dec
17
2012

ACC Bubble Analysis for December 17, 2012

Not a lot of movement this week with the lack of games, but the Duke Blue Devils do move to top of both the AP and Coaches polls after Indiana’s loss.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams where I think they’d placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

Locks

(1) Duke (9-0) (0-0) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (9-0)

Good Wins – * (11) Minnesota, * (12) Louisville, * (29) VCU, * (33) Ohio St, * (37) Temple,  (43) Florida Gulf Coast, (66) Kentucky

Bad Losses -None

Notes – Number 1 team in the country? No question about it right now.

(13) North Carolina State (7-2) (0-0) Projected Seed 5

Last 10 – (7-2)

Good Wins – * (15) Connecticut, (47) Massachusetts

Bad Losses – None

Notes – NC State could use some more credible non-conference wins. Stanford should be decent test this week.

(17) Miami (6-1) (0-0) Projected Seed 5

Last 10 – (6-1)

Good Wins – (45) UNC Charlotte, (51) Michigan St., (47) Massachusetts

Bas Losses –  None

Notes – UNC Charlotte went to Miami 9-0. They left with a 31 point loss. That’s all you need to know about how the Canes are currently playing.

(42) North Carolina (8-2) (0-0) Projected Seed 9

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (95) Long Beach St.

Bad Losses – None

Notes – A win at very average Texas would prove to me this team is improving. Lose and despite their top 25 ranking, they are going to the bubble on this list.

Bubble But In

(55) Maryland (9-1) (0-0) Projected Seed 10

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – (64) Northwestern,  (76) George Mason

Bad Losses – None

Notes – I’m still not sure how good this Maryland team really is, but they keep taking care of business in the meantime against weak opponents.

Bubble But Out

 

(82) Georgia Tech (7-2) 

Last 10 – (7-2)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses – None

Notes – No good wins, but no bad losses. Georgia Tech is better, much better, but that’s an NIT resume right now.

(126) Virginia (8-2) (0-0)

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (62) Tennessee

Bad Losses – (153) Delware

Notes –  Joe Harris is the best player you’ve never heard of. That RPI has got to move into the top 100 before I can give Virginia more consideration.

(170) Virginia Tech (8-2) (0-0) 

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (40) Oklahoma St,  (53) Iowa

Bad Losses – (177) Georgia Southern

Notes – That was a crippling loss at home to Georgia Southern this past weekend. It’s gives Hokies the 2nd worst RPI in the ACC despite the 2 solid non-conference wins.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(140) Clemson (6-3) (0-0)

Last 10 – (6-3)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses – * (178) Purdue

Notes – Quality non-conference wins can help, poor computer numbers. The Tigers don’t have any.

(162) Florida State (6-4) (0-0)

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (77) St. Josephs, (57) BYU

Bad Losses – * (244) South Alabama, * (205) Mercer

Notes – The Seminoles need to go a winning streak bad.

(169) Wake Forest (4-5) (0-0)

Last 10 – (4-5)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses – (113) Richmond, * (163) Iona

Notes –Wake Forest didn’t play this week and their RPI improved. That’s progress!

(186) Boston College (5-5) (0-0)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses – (171) Bryant, * (155) Harvard

Notes – Boston College had squeaker win over New Hampshire this past week. I guess that’s good.

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8 pings

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