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Jan
07
2013

ACC Bubble Analysis for January 7, 2013

You taking in the National Title game tonight? Looking pretty boring.

Here’s a little Bubble analysis because you need to be up on this stuff as college football just came to an end for 2012… Here goes.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams where I think they’d placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

Locks

(1) Duke (14-0) (1-0) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (10-0)

Good Wins – * (7) Minnesota, * (9) Louisville, * (31) VCU, * (42) Ohio St, * (28) Temple,  (93) Florida Gulf Coast, (62) Kentucky, (67) Santa Clara, (98) Davidson

Bad Losses -None

Notes – Jan 12 at NC State is one of the ACC’s biggest games of the year.

(16) North Carolina State (12-2) (1-0) Projected Seed 4

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – * (27) Connecticut, * (47) Massachusetts, (80) Stanford, (60) Western Michigan

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The Wolfpack got a scare at Boston College, and having been flying a little bit under the radar. If they can beat Duke they can get back into top 3 seed picture.

(8) Miami (10-3) (1-0) Projected Seed 6

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (84) UNC Charlotte, * (22) Michigan St., * (47) Massachusetts, (51) LaSalle

Bas Losses –  None

Notes – That was a really solid looking win at Georgia Tech. LaSalle was a strong win too.

(43) North Carolina (10-4) (0-1) Projected Seed 10

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (78) McNeese St., (23) UNLV

Bad Losses – (127) Texas, (134) Virginia

Notes –  The loss at Virginia was a setback.  This may be the best the Tar Heels are this year.

(67) Maryland (13-1) (1-0) Projected Seed 10

Last 10 – (10-0)

Good Wins – (80) George Mason, (91) Stony Brook

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Florida State and Miami this week provide the Terps some of their better tests of the season.

Bubble But In

NONE

Bubble But Out

(71) Florida State (9-5) (1-0)

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (61) St. Josephs, * (30) BYU, (84) Charlotte

Bad Losses – * (211) South Alabama, * (172) Mercer, * (226) Auburn

Notes – If Florida State had beat Auburn this past week to stand at 10-4, I probably would have snuck them into the tournament.

(134) Virginia (11-3) (1-0)

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – (74) Tennessee, (90) Wisconsin, (43) North Carolina

Bad Losses – * (155) Delware, * (309) Old Dominion

Notes – Huge win over North Carolina this past weekend. There are some quality wins there. Virginia can get to the Big Dance if they can find a to 21 or 22 wins.

(126) Georgia Tech (10-3) (0-1)

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (87) St. Marys.

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Georgia Tech blew a big opportunity by losing to Miami (badly) at home. They are just about off the bubble.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(137) Virginia Tech (9-5) (0-1) 

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins –  (35) Oklahoma St,  (76) Iowa

Bad Losses – *(253) Georgia Southern, (105) West Virginia

Notes – More and more I have no idea how this team was able to beat Oklahoma St.

(142) Boston College (8-6) (0-1)

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – NONE

Bad Losses –  (146) Bryant

Notes – Boston College nearly pulled off a monster upset over NC State. Keep an eye on the Eagles they are playing well lately.

(157) Wake Forest (7-6) (0-1)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses –  (120) Iona, (119) Richmond

Notes – Beating Xavier this past week is a sign this Deac might be gradually improving.

(204) Clemson (8-5) (0-1)

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (85) UTEP

Bad Losses – (149) Purdue, * (257) Coastal Carolina

Notes – Clemson just couldn’t lose to Florida State at home. I don’t give the Tigers have any chance to make a serious post-season run. There just isn’t any talent there.

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