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Jan
21
2013

ACC Bubble Analysis for January 21, 2013

Another edition of our bubble analysis. With only 7 weeks remaining until selection Sunday, as many as 8 ACC teams still have a shot at what I think will end up being 5-6 ACC bids.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater than 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams where I think they’d placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

Locks

(1) Duke (16-1) (3-1) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – * (8) Minnesota, * (10) Louisville, * (29) VCU, * (27) Ohio St, * (48) Temple, (52) Kentucky, (88) Santa Clara

Bad Losses -None

Notes – Duke will face one of their toughest games of the ACC season when they head to conference leading Miami. Ryan Kelly is out for Duke and Reggie Johnson is out for Miami, so neither fanbase can complain when it’s over.

(13) North Carolina State (15-3) (4-1) Projected Seed 4

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – * (28) Connecticut, (60) Massachusetts, (74) Stanford, * (1) Duke

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The Wolfpack are showing a disturbing tendency to play down to their competition. ESPN Gameday heads there Saturday for NC State’s battle with North Carolina. Anyone else noticing ESPN is showing a ton of ACC basketball?

(4) Miami (13-3) (4-0) Projected Seed 4

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (56) UNC Charlotte, * (16) Michigan St., (60) Massachusetts, * (43) LaSalle, * (34) North Carolina, (91) Detroit, (65) Maryland

Bas Losses –  (115) Florida Gulf Coast

Notes – Those of us that follow the ACC, don’t need convincing that Miami is a very good basketball team. The rest of the country will know if Miami beats Duke at home on Wednesday which they are perfectly capable of doing.

(34) North Carolina (12-5) (2-2) Projected Seed 9

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins –  * (18) UNLV, (75) Florida State, (65) Maryland

Bad Losses – * (156) Texas, (140) Virginia

Notes –  This week the Heels are solidly in the Big Dance. They have to keep the momentum going, because one bad loss will put them back on the bubble.

Bubble But In

(65) Maryland (14-4) (2-3) Projected Seed 11

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (13) NC State, (94) Northwestern, (98) Stony Brook

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Beating NC State was an absolute must this past week, and the Terps got the win. It would be good if the Terps added a little more to a thin resume.

Bubble But Out

(75) Florida State (10-7) (2-2)

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (79) St. Josephs, * (42) BYU, (56) Charlotte, (65) Maryland

Bad Losses – * (201) South Alabama, * (161) Mercer, * (198) Auburn, (140) Virginia

Notes – 4 Top 100 wins to go along with 4 RPI losses over 100. Who are you Seminoles?

(111) Virginia Tech (11-6) (2-2) 

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins –  * (38) Oklahoma St,  (64) Iowa

Bad Losses – *(254) Georgia Southern, (119) Boston College

Notes – Virginia Tech is slowly working themselves back onto the NCAA bubble. Should they beat Virginia at home and Clemson on the road this week, they will be squarely in the bubble discussion.

(140) Virginia (12-5) (2-2)

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (99) Tennessee, (51) Wisconsin, * (34) North Carolina, (75) Florida State

Bad Losses – * (179) Delware, * (321) Old Dominion, (133) Clemson, (131) Wake Forest, (114) George Mason

Notes – As I’ve been saying all year, the depth of the ACC is apparent. Virginia is the ACC’s lowest rated RPI team, but won at Big 10 2nd place team Wisconsin. The Cavs computer numbers stink, but their quality wins are solid.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(119) Boston College (9-8) (1-3)

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – NONE

Bad Losses –  (131) Wake Forest, (106) Bryant, (143) Charleston

Notes – BC gave Miami everything they could handle, but the Eagles don’t have a single quality win. That’s a big problem in this list.

(122) Georgia Tech (10-6) (0-4)

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (62) St. Marys.

Bad Losses – (111) Virginia Tech

Notes – Brian Gregory’s team is better, but someone tell me where the wins are going to come from.

(131) Wake Forest (9-8) (2-3)

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (67) Xavier

Bad Losses –  (112) Iona, (111) Virginia Tech, (133) Clemson

Notes – Wake Forest could see the corner before last week, but they couldn’t turn it losing at Clemson and Virginia Tech.

(133) Clemson (10-7) (2-3)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – (71) UTEP

Bad Losses – (122) Purdue, * (283) Coastal Carolina

Notes – Devin Booker is trying to work himself on to the All-ACC team. The Tigers gave the Wolfpack a real scare in Raleigh.

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