As the Protect College Sports Act works through the negotiation process with the Big 10 and SEC, and it tries to move through Congress, some interesting language is beginning to appear.
From @RossDellenger ‘s yahoo article on the latest on the Protect College Sports Act.
The original language of the provision froze power conference membership at its current state, rendering it impossible for those from the Football Bowl Subdivision’s mid-major six conferences (American, Sun Belt, Pac-12, Conference USA, MAC and Mountain West) to move upward. An impending change to the provision will give those programs the ability for promotion,
In addition to that, the revision may provide flexibility for power conference programs to move to other power leagues, such as those in the ACC and Big 12 shifting to the SEC and Big Ten. But those moves may only be made within a certain framework of parameters yet to be formalized.
First, this will not accelerate realignment. It would be nonsensical for the Big 10 and SEC to negotiate realignment parameters only to blow through them prior to any passing of the bill – whose passing may or may not happen. Remember the Big 10 and SEC, and don’t forget this, the P2 doesn’t “have” to expand in the way that was the case several years ago. Their contracts and influence are at the top, and they only compete financially with each other.
Is the question the parameters? What could those parameters be?
My speculation is that is could be one of two things. Either there will be a cap on how many teams conferences can expand to in order to somewhat control the monopolization of college sports. I would expect that number to be 20 or max 22. Beyond that serves no purpose as a guideline. 24 is just too big.
It could also be, and this is my expectation, that only a certain number of teams can be poached from a league in a given time period. This would keep conferences from being poached out of relative existence like the Pac-12. I think most of those involved with college athletics realize this was bad for the sport and relegated student athletes at Oregon State and Washington State through no fault of their own. The West Coast no longer has a conference at the P4 level. Teams are spread across the country without any logical sense. I don’t this wants to be seen again, and certainly not at the abrupt speed of the Pac-12’s demise.
Do I think the Big 10 and SEC could break away? There’s a non-zero, but unlikely chance this happens. If there’s one thing the NCAA does well, is host post-season events. I’ve seen ACC and Big 12 teams make it to the national title games of several major sports, proving that while the P2 are the top athletic league, they aren’t far enough ahead to pull away on their own. Also, they would be dealing with a ton of backlash. The P2 will work to move the goalposts in their favor, but they won’t break away.
The odds of the SEC breaking away on their own, as they have alluded to, is the biggest athletic bluff going.
There is plenty left to unsettle.
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