I’m sure the coaches at Wake Forest and SMU are thinking one game at a time, and preaching that to their teams and players. Well, it’s almost November, and the rest of us can start thinking about the playoffs.
For most of the year, Miami was the only team in the ACC that was really in position to think about the playoffs, but not now.
Wake Forest is #14 in the AP poll and #15 in the Coaches poll. SMU is #19 in the AP Poll, and #16 in the Coaches poll. That’s close enough to start looking at what Wake Forest and SMU need to do for the rest of the year to make the playoffs without winning the ACC.
For Wake Forest, the path is straightforward, and the schedule quite manageable. It’s win out… Wake Forest has reeling Virginia next, then Merrimack before the monster matchup with SMU. Then the Deacs have a layup with Georgia Tech, and a tricky game with Duke.
So the schedule gives no margin of error, but an 11-1 record with their only loss to a #1 and certain to remain top 5 Miami probably has them around 6-8 in the country before an ACC Title appearance where the committee may be pretty hesitant to drop Wake Forest all the way off the playoff radar. Wake Forest won’t have much in the way of ranked wins, but they’ll have 6 P4 road wins, including at Big 10’s Purdue, Louisville, and SMU.
SMU’s only loss is at Louisville, where Wake Forest won. They will have an even stronger case at 11-1, because they will finish with ranked wins over Wake Forest, Notre Dame, and a good win over Virginia Tech. Road games at Syracuse and Stanford are also on schedule. They are further back, but I think they would be in that 6-8 ranking range as well with a 11-1 finish. Could SMU lose to Notre Dame and make the field at 10-3?
Maybe, but I don’t like their chances. I think they would just be on the outside looking in without a lot of help around the country.
The point is, Wake Forest and SMU don’t have to win the ACC, and they stand a very good chance to make the playoffs.
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