We’ve reached the point in the season where game results have to be scrutinized each day for how it affects the NCAA Tournament.
It was not a good Saturday for NCAA bubble teams.
Stanford (18-11, 7-9) NET 75 – Stock Slightly Up
If Selection Sunday were tomorrow, Stanford would not be in the NCAA field or even on the bubble, but they can see the bubble off in the distance. Stanford beat SMU Saturday, giving them back-to-back wins. They have to sweep games at Notre Dame and at NC State. Do that, and they probably won’t have to win the ACC Tournament. It’s a real stretch, but there is a non-zero chance it could happen.
California (19-9, 8-8) NET 58 – Stock Way Down
No team took a more devastating loss Saturday than California. Squarely on the bubble had a home game with one of the ACC bottom feeders in Pittsburgh, Cal promptly laid the single biggest egg in the ACC this year, losing by 16 at home to Pitt. The drops Cal to the edge of the bubble and on the wrong side. If they lose either road game against Georgia Tech or at Wake Forest, Cal will have to win the ACC tournament. It was an absolute nightmare result for the Bears today.
Clemson (21-8, 11-5) NET 36 – Stock Up and In
Clemson’s 4 game losing streak had landed them on the bubble. They were in the field, but another loss to Louisville with a road game at UNC looming, and it could have gotten real dicey for Clemson. Clemson knocked off Louisville, and barring a loss to UNC and a home loss to a wretched Georgia Tech team, the Tigers are safely in and clear of the bubble.
SMU (19-10, 8-8) NET 31 – Stock Down
If Cal had a nightmare scenario Saturday, SMU wasn’t all that far behind. The Mustangs had more margin for error, but SMU went 0-2 in the Cal/Stanford West Coast swing. SMU now has a home game with Miami and a road game at FSU. That’s a difficult closing two games, and if SMU enters the ACC tournament on a 4-game losing streak, they’ll need a big ACC Tournament run.
NC State (19-10, 10-6) Net 28 – Stock Down
NC State’s ugly loss to Notre Dame really puts a crack in the Wolfpack’s resume. That is 4 losses in the Wolfpack’s last 5 games. The country’s best team Duke, is next, and the Blue Devils are mowing down everything in their path. Even a team the caliber of Michigan didn’t hold up against Duke. If NC State loses that game and gets upset by Stanford, would a 19-11 (10-8) NC State that lost 6 of their last 7 games make the NCAAs? Mostly likely yes, but I’d get one of those two games just to be sure.
Virginia Tech (18-11, 7-9) Net 53 – Stock Down
Virginia Tech is hanging on the fringes of the bubble. They played pretty well at UNC, if they don’t beat Boston College and win at Virginia to close out the season, they won’t even be on the bubble. They have just 2 Q1 wins. They have 4 losses by less than 3 points. If they had even gone 2-2 in those games, it might be a totally different story.
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