The last ACC bubble analysis of 2012… Just before conference play begins. I’m posting early since I’ll be in the road most of the day, so enjoy…
Who’s in and who’s out?
In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.
Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater 150 losses.
My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.
This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams where I think they’d placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.
Locks
(1) Duke (12-0) (0-0) Projected Seed 1
Last 10 – (10-0)
Good Wins – * (11) Minnesota, * (9) Louisville, * (27) VCU, * (44) Ohio St, * (29) Temple, (77) Florida Gulf Coast, (52) Kentucky, (79) Santa Clara, (81) Elon
Bad Losses -None
Notes – Another double digit win over another another top 100 foe. This week it was Santa Clara who gave Duke a game for awhile.
(4) North Carolina State (10-2) (0-0) Projected Seed 3
Last 10 – (8-2)
Good Wins – * (23) Connecticut, * (37) Massachusetts, (67) Stanford, (51) Western Michigan
Bad Losses – None
Notes – Are the Wolfpack playing well now or what? Their computer numbers are great.
(15) Miami (8-3) (0-0) Projected Seed 6
Last 10 – (8-3)
Good Wins – (83) UNC Charlotte, * (25) Michigan St., * (37) Massachusetts, (88) Detroit
Bas Losses – None
Notes – Oh Boy, Reggie Johnson is going to be out for 6-8 weeks. The Canes have built a decent resume, but need to beat a dangerous (9-2) LaSalle team that owns a win over Villanova. Get that win and hover around .500 in the ACC until Johnson’s return and the Hurricanes should be fine.
(24) North Carolina (10-3) (0-0) Projected Seed 7
Last 10 – (7-3)
Good Wins – (47) McNeese St., (11) UNLV
Bad Losses – None
Notes – This isn’t an elite North Carolina team, but beating a good UNLV team will give this team a real confidence boost. They aren’t in Duke and NC State’s class, but they are capable of finishing in top 4 in the ACC.
(60) Maryland (11-1) (0-0) Projected Seed 9
Last 10 – (10-0)
Good Wins – (57) George Mason, (76) Stony Brook
Bad Losses – None
Notes – Still trying judge how good this Maryland team is as they continue to mow down inferior opponents.
Bubble But In
NONE
Bubble But Out
(115) Georgia Tech (9-2)
Last 10 – (8-2)
Good Wins – None
Bad Losses – None
Notes – The Yellow Jackets have beat all of their last 3 opponents by more than 30 points. This is a young team that’s deep. They are still a year away, but will be a headache for ACC teams this year.
(96) Florida State (8-4) (0-0)
Last 10 – (7-3)
Good Wins – (72) St. Josephs, * (33) BYU, (83) Charlotte
Bad Losses – * (251) South Alabama, * (159) Mercer
Notes – If the ACC is going to a 6th team into the NCAA’s, I think it will be FSU. As I pointed out the bubble is weak this year, and the Noles seem to be finding some traction. They can’t afford a slip up against an Auburn team than nearly beat Illinois.
(150) Virginia (10-3) (0-0)
Last 10 – (8-2)
Good Wins – * (42) Tennessee
Bad Losses – * (164) Delware, * (287) Old Dominion
Notes – That Old Dominion loss is going to be a black eye all year.
(137) Virginia Tech (9-4) (0-0)
Last 10 – (6-4)
Good Wins – * (16) Oklahoma St, (64) Iowa
Bad Losses – *(224) Georgia Southern
Notes – I thought the Hokies were playing above their heads to open the season, but I didn’t think they’d fall apart this fast. Virginia Tech is reeling right now…
Only if they win the ACC Tournament
(128) Boston College (7-5) (0-0)
Last 10 – (6-4)
Good Wins – NONE
Bad Losses – (143) Bryant
Notes – Don’t look now but Boston College has won 4 games in a row… If Boston College can win their next two at home (Dartmouth, NC State), they may warrant some real consideration.
(181) Clemson (7-4) (0-0)
Last 10 – (6-4)
Good Wins – NONE
Bad Losses – * (188) Purdue, * (271) Coastal Carolina
Notes – Clemson is a little like BC. If they want to get back to the point where the NCAA’s are even in the discussion they must win their next two home games against the Citadel and Florida State this upcoming week.
(208) Wake Forest (6-5) (0-0)
Last 10 – (5-5)
Good Wins – None
Bad Losses – * (174) Iona, (140) Richmond
Notes – I’ll be real interested to see if Wake Forest can knock off an average Xavier team at home on January 2.
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