Week 6 CFP Eliminator: Texas A&M Stays Alive

Last week, I mentioned a great example of my methodology here. I never assume a team will lose a game. In fact, when I’m deciding whether to eliminate a team, I always look at what the resume could be if the team wins out. If a team runs the table and still doesn’t have a Playoff resume, then they’re eliminated. But I never assume losses.

That’s why I didn’t eliminate Texas A&M last week. The theory is obvious. If Texas A&M lost to Alabama this week, the Aggies would be eliminated anyway. And if they won, the Aggies would stat alive, at least a little longer. The Aggies pulled off the huge upset, so they’re not yet eliminated.

Now, Texas A&M still doesn’t have a great Playoff path. Jimbo Fisher’s team still has two losses, both of which have the potential to be damaging. And there are only two more potential quality games on the schedule, neither of which is guaranteed to remain quality. On the other hand, if the Aggies win out, that also means they get a shot at Georgia (or Kentucky) in the SEC Championship Game. Would wins over Georgia and Alabama get them into the Playoff? Maybe. Hence, they’re not eliminated.

Another team not eliminated this week is BYU. Even though the Cougars have a loss, I left them alive for one simple reason: they still have a shot to have wins over three Power 5 champions this year. BYU has already beaten several Pac 12 contenders, faces Baylor this week, and gets Virginia later in the year. Usually a team outside the Power 5 with a loss is done for. But if you’re ahead of three (or even two) Power 5 champions in the pecking order, you stay alive even with a loss.

A team that does not stay alive, though, is Virginia Tech. The Hokies have two losses, one of them a pretty bad one against West Virginia. With limited quality win potential in the ACC this year–plus an unfortunate cross-division schedule that avoids all three potentially-ranked teams from the Atlantic, Virginia Tech does not have a real Playoff path anymore.

How the CFP Eliminator works

The goal is simple: We are going to count down every single FBS team that remains in contention for a College Football Playoff bid. We start with all of the FBS teams, and they get eliminated one by one until only a few remain.

If the Playoff teams are obvious, we will only have four remaining Selection Sunday morning, like 2019. If, like 2018, there is a serious bubble with multiple teams with strong claims for the fourth spot, then we might have five (or, in 2014 and 2018, six) still alive on Selection Sunday.

In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams on this Twitter thread. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.

I also need to add two notes about the process.

1. The premise: My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only: if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to assume a future loss.

Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in modern college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are.

Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.

2. Group of 5 teams: My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory––crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance. I will be more willing to eliminate teams before they lose as the season goes on, but for now the standard remains.

Week 6: Teams Remaining

As the season goes on, I’ll add more detailed notes by each team explaining why a questionable team has not yet been eliminated. For now, though, we’ll start with just the list. We began this week with 49 teams. In Week 6, we eliminated 11 teams. Therefore, 38 teams currently remain in College Football Playoff contention.

I include Notre Dame in the ACC in this roundup for simplicity.

ACC:

Big 12:

Big Ten:

Pac 12:

SEC:

Independents: BYU

AAC: Cincinnati, SMU

Conference-USA: UTSA

MAC: Eliminated

Mountain West: San Diego State

Sun Belt: Coastal Carolina

Teams Eliminated

Week 6:

Week 5:

Week 4:

Week 3:

Week 2:

Week 1:

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