<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss version="2.0" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" xmlns:sy="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/syndication/" xmlns:slash="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/slash/" xmlns:georss="http://www.georss.org/georss" xmlns:geo="http://www.w3.org/2003/01/geo/wgs84_pos#" > <channel> <title>Ohio State Buckeyes – All Sports Discussion</title> <atom:link href="https://allsportsdiscussion.com/tag/ohio-state-buckeyes/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" /> <link>https://allsportsdiscussion.com</link> <description>We cover the ACC, but we'll also talk about whatever is interesting in Sports</description> <lastBuildDate>Sun, 04 Dec 2022 00:58:41 +0000</lastBuildDate> <language>en-US</language> <sy:updatePeriod> hourly </sy:updatePeriod> <sy:updateFrequency> 1 </sy:updateFrequency> <generator>https://wordpress.org/?v=6.7.1</generator> <site xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">25328630</site> <item> <title>Final CFP Eliminator: Who’s In?</title> <link>https://allsportsdiscussion.com/2022/12/03/final-cfp-eliminator-whos-in/</link> <comments>https://allsportsdiscussion.com/2022/12/03/final-cfp-eliminator-whos-in/#respond</comments> <dc:creator><![CDATA[Yesh Ginsburg]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Sat, 03 Dec 2022 23:07:15 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[College Football]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Alabama Crimson Tide]]></category> <category><![CDATA[CFP Eliminator]]></category> <category><![CDATA[CFP Implications]]></category> <category><![CDATA[College Football Playoff]]></category> <category><![CDATA[College Football Playoff selection committee]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Georgia Bulldogs]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Michigan Wolverines]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Ohio State Buckeyes]]></category> <category><![CDATA[TCU Horned Frogs]]></category> <category><![CDATA[USC Trojans]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">http://allsportsdiscussion.com/?p=36092</guid> <description><![CDATA[Some seasons, I get to end the Eliminator series with a clear four Playoff teams. Some years, there’s an obvious bubble with a needed resume comparison. This year, we’re somewhere in between. First of all, the obvious. Georgia and Michigan are in. As of this writing, Georgia is at halftime of the SEC Championship Game … </p><p><a class="more-link block-button" href="https://allsportsdiscussion.com/2022/12/03/final-cfp-eliminator-whos-in/">Continue reading »</a>]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://i0.wp.com/allsportsdiscussion.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/College-Football-Playoff-1.jpeg"><img decoding="async" data-attachment-id="36099" data-permalink="https://allsportsdiscussion.com/2022/12/03/final-cfp-eliminator-whos-in/college-football-playoff-28/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/allsportsdiscussion.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/College-Football-Playoff-1.jpeg?fit=150%2C150&ssl=1" data-orig-size="150,150" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="College-Football-Playoff" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/allsportsdiscussion.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/College-Football-Playoff-1.jpeg?fit=150%2C150&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/allsportsdiscussion.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/College-Football-Playoff-1.jpeg?fit=150%2C150&ssl=1" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-36099" src="https://i0.wp.com/allsportsdiscussion.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/College-Football-Playoff-1.jpeg?resize=150%2C150" alt="" width="150" height="150" data-recalc-dims="1" /></a></p> <p>Some seasons, I get to end the Eliminator series with a clear four Playoff teams. Some years, there’s an obvious bubble with a needed resume comparison. This year, we’re somewhere in between.</p> <p>First of all, the obvious. Georgia and Michigan are in. As of this writing, Georgia is at halftime of the SEC Championship Game (with a blowout lead). Michigan won’t kick off against Purdue for a few more hours. It doesn’t matter. They’re in.</p> <p>With USC’s second loss of the season to Utah, the Trojans are now out of the Playoff picture. That means that last week’s #5, Ohio State, is also locked into the Playoff. But who gets the fourth spot?</p> <p>There’s an easy answer, and a complicated answer. On paper, the easy answer is TCU. The Horned Frogs have one loss, to Alabama’s two, and a 2-1 record vs the Top 25 (including 1-1 vs the Top 10, both against Kansas State). Alabama, meanwhile, is 0-1 vs the Top 10, and 2-2 vs the Top 25. But Alabama’s best win is far worse than TCU’s win over Kansas State. Both resumes are pretty weak after that, though TCU’s remains stronger. TCU has five wins over teams with winning records (a stat the committee often cites) and seven wins over bowl teams. Alabama, meanwhile, has three wins over teams with winning records and five wins over bowl teams.</p> <p>So why isn’t this a slam dunk? Why isn’t Alabama eliminated and TCU in?</p> <p>There are two reasons. The first is silly, but true–it’s Bama. The selection committee has always given Alabama a level of benefit of the doubt that no other team gets. The second reason is a bit more clear. The committee, over the years, has shown a clear preference for teams that win convincingly over those that don’t. Alabama has had some nail-biters and close wins, yes. But TCU’s entire season has been filled with comebacks and close escapes. The Horned Frogs–even with a superior resume–just have an aura of not belonging, whether that is deserved or not. To be clear, I personally feel they do belong in the Playoff, certainly over Alabama’s resume. But enough people in the college football world–and, clearly, inside the committee room, as TCU has been the lowest-ranked undefeated team each week–view TCU as weak, so I can’t confidently say that TCU will get the nod it deserves.</p> <p>So there’s a two-team bubble for the final Playoff spot. One team is clearly more deserving, but it’s not clear enough that I can lock TCU in.</p> <p>In fact, I would not be surprised if the committee puts TCU at #3 on Sunday anyway. TCU has a barely worse resume than Ohio State, but has more medium-tier wins and is 12-1 instead of 11-1. On top of that, keeping TCU at #3 avoids a rematch in the first round of the CFP. However, I would also not be shocked (disappointed, yes, but not shocked) if Alabama slides ahead of TCU on Sunday. Hence, bubble, but with a very clear preference.</p> <h3>How it works</h3> <p>In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams on this <a href="https://twitter.com/yesh222/status/1563194565661790208" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Twitter thread</a>. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.</p> <p>I need to start with two notes about the process.</p> <p><strong>1. The premise:</strong> My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only: if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to assume a future loss.</p> <p>Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in modern college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are.</p> <p>Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.</p> <p><strong>2. Group of 5 teams:</strong> My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory––crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance. With the way this year has begun, no G5 team had a real chance this year.</p> <h3>Week 12: Teams Remaining</h3> <p>As the season goes on, I’ll add more detailed notes by each team explaining why a questionable team has not yet been eliminated. For now, though, we’ll start with just the list. We began the year with 130 teams (James Madison is still transitioning to FBS and is not eligible for the postseason this year). We began Week 12 with 12 teams alive, and three more were eliminated this week. Therefore, nine teams currently remain in College Football Playoff contention.</p> <h4><strong>ACC:</strong></h4> <p>ELIMINATED</p> <h4><strong>Big 12:</strong></h4> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>TCU</td> <td>On the bubble, but very likely in</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h4><strong>Big Ten:</strong></h4> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="color: #339966;">Michigan</span></td> <td><span style="color: #339966;">Guaranteed a Playoff berth</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="color: #339966;">Ohio State</span></td> <td><span style="color: #339966;">Guaranteed a Playoff berth with USC loss</span></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h4><strong>Pac 12:</strong></h4> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">USC</span></del></td> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">Eliminated with second loss, will fall behind Ohio State</span></del></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h4><strong>SEC:</strong></h4> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Alabama</td> <td>On the bubble, but very likely out</td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="color: #339966;">Georgia</span></td> <td><span style="color: #339966;">Guaranteed a Playoff berth</span></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h3>Teams Eliminated</h3> <p>This season I will only be listing Power 5 teams in this section.</p> <p><strong>Week 14:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>USC</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses, one a blowout, and not enough quality wins to stay ahead of Ohio State or pass TCU</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 13:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Clemson</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses, and not enough quality wins to pass Ohio State, let alone Georgia, Michigan, and TCU.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>LSU</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>North Carolina</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 12:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Tennessee</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses, one of which was an ugly blowout, and no path to the SEC championship</td> </tr> <tr> <td>UCLA</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Utah</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 11:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Illinois</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Mississippi</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and not enough quality win potential</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oregon</td> <td>Eliminated with a second loss after a 46-point blowout loss to Georgia in Week 1</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 10:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Maryland</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oregon State</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Syracuse</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 9:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kentucky</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>N.C. State</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and being knocked out of the ACC title hunt</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oklahoma State</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses, one an extremely embarrassing blowout</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penn State</td> <td>Eliminated with losses to the two best teams on the schedule and not much other quality win potential</td> </tr> <tr> <td>South Carolina</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Wake Forest</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and being knocked out of the ACC title hunt</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 8:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kansas State</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses, including one to Tulane, and not enough quality win potential as the Big 12 will beat itself up</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Mississippi State</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Pittsburgh</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Purdue</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Texas</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 7:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Baylor</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>California</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Duke</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Florida</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Florida State</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kansas</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and not enough quality win potential</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Minnesota</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and not enough quality win potential</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 6:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Auburn</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses and would need far too much chaos even with wins over Georgia and Alabama</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Arizona</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Arkansas</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Indiana</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Iowa</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Iowa State</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Miami</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oklahoma</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Rutgers</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Texas A&M</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Texas Tech</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Washington</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and lack of quality win opportunities remaining on its Pac 12 schedule</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Washington State</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and lack of quality win opportunities remaining on its Pac 12 schedule</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Vanderbilt</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 5:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Louisville</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Michigan State</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Missouri</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Stanford</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Virginia Tech</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>West Virginia</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Wisconsin</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 4:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Boston College</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Georgia Tech</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Notre Dame</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses, one of them very bad. Even solid remaining schedule can’t overcome loss to Marshall.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Virginia</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and not enough quality win potential on the schedule</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 3:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Arizona State</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses (one exceedingly ugly) and not enough quality win potential</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Colorado</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Nebraska</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Northwestern</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to FCS Southern Illinois</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Make sure you follow the All Sports Discussion Twitter account at <a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fallsportsdacc&sa=D&sntz=1&usg=AFQjCNH80neHSsrNqatIx7rdXWPR9U0_VA" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.google.com/url?q%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Ftwitter.com%252Fallsportsdacc%26sa%3DD%26sntz%3D1%26usg%3DAFQjCNH80neHSsrNqatIx7rdXWPR9U0_VA&source=gmail&ust=1486166502870000&usg=AFQjCNGgOzqUxiig-tlkIjyFOnLEhGtpRQ">@AllSportsDACC</a> and please like our <a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fpages%2FAll-Sports-Discussion%2F184935911533629%3Ffref%3Dts&sa=D&sntz=1&usg=AFQjCNEWEAihdwfmDazuSSnX5l4sK20orQ" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.google.com/url?q%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.facebook.com%252Fpages%252FAll-Sports-Discussion%252F184935911533629%253Ffref%253Dts%26sa%3DD%26sntz%3D1%26usg%3DAFQjCNEWEAihdwfmDazuSSnX5l4sK20orQ&source=gmail&ust=1486166502870000&usg=AFQjCNGr19chQ7IW8VRHn1DFxQH94mz21A">Facebook Page</a></strong></p> <br> <center> <script async src="//pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js"></script> <!-- Bottom_Post --> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:inline-block;width:468px;height:60px" data-ad-client="ca-pub-1227879969298088" data-ad-slot="1445137322"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <br> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js"></script> <!-- Horizontal_6 --> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:inline-block;width:468px;height:60px" data-ad-client="ca-pub-1227879969298088" data-ad-slot="4619304738"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> </center>]]></content:encoded> <wfw:commentRss>https://allsportsdiscussion.com/2022/12/03/final-cfp-eliminator-whos-in/feed/</wfw:commentRss> <slash:comments>0</slash:comments> <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">36092</post-id> </item> <item> <title>Week 13 CFP Eliminator: If USC Falters, is it Ohio State or Alabama?</title> <link>https://allsportsdiscussion.com/2022/11/27/week-13-cfp-eliminator-if-usc-falters-is-it-ohio-state-or-alabama/</link> <comments>https://allsportsdiscussion.com/2022/11/27/week-13-cfp-eliminator-if-usc-falters-is-it-ohio-state-or-alabama/#respond</comments> <dc:creator><![CDATA[Yesh Ginsburg]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Sun, 27 Nov 2022 15:42:34 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[College Football]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Alabama Crimson Tide]]></category> <category><![CDATA[CFP Eliminator]]></category> <category><![CDATA[CFP Implications]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Clemson Tigers]]></category> <category><![CDATA[College Football Playoff]]></category> <category><![CDATA[College Football Playoff selection committee]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Georgia Bulldogs]]></category> <category><![CDATA[LSU Tigers]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Michigan Wolverines]]></category> <category><![CDATA[North Carolina Tar Heels]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Ohio State Buckeyes]]></category> <category><![CDATA[TCU Horned Frogs]]></category> <category><![CDATA[USC Trojans]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">http://allsportsdiscussion.com/?p=36049</guid> <description><![CDATA[This will be a somewhat expanded introduction to the Eliminator, because there really is only one question left for the selection committee. We know that Georgia and Michigan have locked up Playoff bids. TCU is in if it wins next week, and might even be in with a loss. USC is almost certainly in with … </p><p><a class="more-link block-button" href="https://allsportsdiscussion.com/2022/11/27/week-13-cfp-eliminator-if-usc-falters-is-it-ohio-state-or-alabama/">Continue reading »</a>]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://i0.wp.com/allsportsdiscussion.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/College-Football-Playoff-2.jpeg"><img decoding="async" data-attachment-id="36051" data-permalink="https://allsportsdiscussion.com/2022/11/27/week-13-cfp-eliminator-if-usc-falters-is-it-ohio-state-or-alabama/college-football-playoff-26/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/allsportsdiscussion.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/College-Football-Playoff-2.jpeg?fit=150%2C150&ssl=1" data-orig-size="150,150" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="College-Football-Playoff" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/allsportsdiscussion.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/College-Football-Playoff-2.jpeg?fit=150%2C150&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/allsportsdiscussion.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/College-Football-Playoff-2.jpeg?fit=150%2C150&ssl=1" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-36051" src="https://i0.wp.com/allsportsdiscussion.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/College-Football-Playoff-2.jpeg?resize=150%2C150" alt="" width="150" height="150" data-recalc-dims="1" /></a></p> <p>This will be a somewhat expanded introduction to the Eliminator, because there really is only one question left for the selection committee. We know that Georgia and Michigan have locked up Playoff bids. TCU is in if it wins next week, and might even be in with a loss. USC is almost certainly in with a win.</p> <p>But what if USC loses? Who’s the #4 team then? Is it Ohio State or is it Alabama?</p> <p>Honestly, there’s really only one choice. The advanced metrics–which the selection committee often refers to when it wants to buck conventional wisdom–has the two teams about dead even. ESPN’s FPI has Alabama at #2 and Ohio State at #3. It also has Alabama one spot ahead in Game Control, but one spot behind in Strength of Record and three spots behind in Average In-Game Win percentage. Other advanced metrics show a similar split–with Ohio State barely ahead on balance (at least among those released so far), but it basically being a wash.</p> <p>So, let’s move on to the resume.</p> <p>Alabama’s best win on the season is Texas, who will clock in at somewhere around #20. The Tide has two more chances at ranked wins, is the committee decides to rank both Ole Miss and Mississippi State. All three of those teams are 8-4 on the season, and none will be higher than #19 at absolute best. Ohio State, meanwhile, has two wins ranked higher than either of those three teams–though Notre Dame might be just one spot ahead of Texas when all is said and done. The win over Penn State–who will finish somewhere between #8 and #10–is far better than any of Alabama’s wins.</p> <p>Next, lets look at a stat the committee consistently uses to judge schedule strength: wins over teams with winning record. Ohio State has five such wins. Alabama has three. Yes, Alabama’s three potential fringe Top 25 ranked wins are Alabama’s only wins over teams with winning records. Including 6-6 Utah State, Alabama beat five bowl teams; Ohio State beat six.</p> <p>On to the losses. Alabama’s losses were certainly closer than Ohio State’s was. However, Alabama’s two losses came to teams who will be ranked at the back end of the Top 10. Ohio State’s loss was to the #2 team.</p> <p>Maybe TCU and USC will both win next week and this point will be moot. TCU might be able to slide in even with a loss at this point, though that bubble gets weird if it comes to it. But if USC loses and it’s a choice between Ohio State and Alabama, resumes and precedent point in only one direction.</p> <p>Of course, there’s one other precedent to consider: When push comes to shove, the selection committee has always given Alabama an extra benefit of the doubt. Will that be the deciding factor here? I don’t know, and that’s why Alabama isn’t eliminated.</p> <h3>How it works</h3> <p>In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams on this <a href="https://twitter.com/yesh222/status/1563194565661790208" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Twitter thread</a>. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.</p> <p>I need to start with two notes about the process.</p> <p><strong>1. The premise:</strong> My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only: if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to assume a future loss.</p> <p>Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in modern college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are.</p> <p>Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.</p> <p><strong>2. Group of 5 teams:</strong> My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory––crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance. With the way this year has begun, no G5 team had a real chance this year.</p> <h3>Week 12: Teams Remaining</h3> <p>As the season goes on, I’ll add more detailed notes by each team explaining why a questionable team has not yet been eliminated. For now, though, we’ll start with just the list. We began the year with 130 teams (James Madison is still transitioning to FBS and is not eligible for the postseason this year). We began Week 12 with 12 teams alive, and three more were eliminated this week. Therefore, nine teams currently remain in College Football Playoff contention.</p> <h4><strong>ACC:</strong></h4> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <th>Team:</th> <th>Notes:</th> </tr> <tr> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">Clemson</span></del></td> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">Eliminated with second loss and no path to passing the current Top 4.</span></del></td> </tr> <tr> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">North Carolina</span></del></td> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">Eliminated with third loss.</span></del></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h4><strong>Big 12:</strong></h4> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>TCU</td> <td>Undefeated so far.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h4><strong>Big Ten:</strong></h4> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="color: #339966;">Michigan</span></td> <td><span style="color: #339966;">Guaranteed a Playoff berth.</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Ohio State</td> <td>Loss to Michigan puts Ohio State on the bubble, hoping for a USC loss.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h4><strong>Pac 12:</strong></h4> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>USC</td> <td>Likely in with a win in the Pac 12 Championship Game.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h4><strong>SEC:</strong></h4> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Alabama</td> <td>Needs to see USC and/or TCU lose, and hope the committee gives it the benefit of the doubt over Ohio State.</td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="color: #339966;">Georgia</span></td> <td><span style="color: #339966;">Guaranteed a Playoff berth.</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">LSU</span></del></td> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">Eliminated with third loss.</span></del></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h3>Teams Eliminated</h3> <p>This season I will only be listing Power 5 teams in this section.</p> <p><strong>Week 13:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Clemson</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses, and not enough quality wins to pass Ohio State, let alone Georgia, Michigan, and TCU.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>LSU</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>North Carolina</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 12:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Tennessee</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses, one of which was an ugly blowout, and no path to the SEC championship</td> </tr> <tr> <td>UCLA</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Utah</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 11:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Illinois</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Mississippi</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and not enough quality win potential</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oregon</td> <td>Eliminated with a second loss after a 46-point blowout loss to Georgia in Week 1</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 10:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Maryland</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oregon State</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Syracuse</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 9:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kentucky</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>N.C. State</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and being knocked out of the ACC title hunt</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oklahoma State</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses, one an extremely embarrassing blowout</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penn State</td> <td>Eliminated with losses to the two best teams on the schedule and not much other quality win potential</td> </tr> <tr> <td>South Carolina</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Wake Forest</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and being knocked out of the ACC title hunt</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 8:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kansas State</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses, including one to Tulane, and not enough quality win potential as the Big 12 will beat itself up</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Mississippi State</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Pittsburgh</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Purdue</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Texas</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 7:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Baylor</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>California</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Duke</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Florida</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Florida State</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kansas</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and not enough quality win potential</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Minnesota</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and not enough quality win potential</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 6:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Auburn</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses and would need far too much chaos even with wins over Georgia and Alabama</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Arizona</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Arkansas</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Indiana</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Iowa</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Iowa State</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Miami</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oklahoma</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Rutgers</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Texas A&M</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Texas Tech</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Washington</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and lack of quality win opportunities remaining on its Pac 12 schedule</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Washington State</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and lack of quality win opportunities remaining on its Pac 12 schedule</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Vanderbilt</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 5:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Louisville</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Michigan State</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Missouri</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Stanford</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Virginia Tech</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>West Virginia</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Wisconsin</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 4:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Boston College</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Georgia Tech</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Notre Dame</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses, one of them very bad. Even solid remaining schedule can’t overcome loss to Marshall.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Virginia</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and not enough quality win potential on the schedule</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 3:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Arizona State</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses (one exceedingly ugly) and not enough quality win potential</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Colorado</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Nebraska</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Northwestern</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to FCS Southern Illinois</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Make sure you follow the All Sports Discussion Twitter account at <a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fallsportsdacc&sa=D&sntz=1&usg=AFQjCNH80neHSsrNqatIx7rdXWPR9U0_VA" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.google.com/url?q%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Ftwitter.com%252Fallsportsdacc%26sa%3DD%26sntz%3D1%26usg%3DAFQjCNH80neHSsrNqatIx7rdXWPR9U0_VA&source=gmail&ust=1486166502870000&usg=AFQjCNGgOzqUxiig-tlkIjyFOnLEhGtpRQ">@AllSportsDACC</a> and please like our <a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fpages%2FAll-Sports-Discussion%2F184935911533629%3Ffref%3Dts&sa=D&sntz=1&usg=AFQjCNEWEAihdwfmDazuSSnX5l4sK20orQ" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.google.com/url?q%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.facebook.com%252Fpages%252FAll-Sports-Discussion%252F184935911533629%253Ffref%253Dts%26sa%3DD%26sntz%3D1%26usg%3DAFQjCNEWEAihdwfmDazuSSnX5l4sK20orQ&source=gmail&ust=1486166502870000&usg=AFQjCNGr19chQ7IW8VRHn1DFxQH94mz21A">Facebook Page</a></strong></p> <br> <center> <script async src="//pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js"></script> <!-- Bottom_Post --> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:inline-block;width:468px;height:60px" data-ad-client="ca-pub-1227879969298088" data-ad-slot="1445137322"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <br> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js"></script> <!-- Horizontal_6 --> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:inline-block;width:468px;height:60px" data-ad-client="ca-pub-1227879969298088" data-ad-slot="4619304738"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> </center>]]></content:encoded> <wfw:commentRss>https://allsportsdiscussion.com/2022/11/27/week-13-cfp-eliminator-if-usc-falters-is-it-ohio-state-or-alabama/feed/</wfw:commentRss> <slash:comments>0</slash:comments> <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">36049</post-id> </item> <item> <title>Week 12 CFP Eliminator: Who Can Survive Chaos?</title> <link>https://allsportsdiscussion.com/2022/11/20/week-12-cfp-eliminator-who-can-survive-chaos/</link> <comments>https://allsportsdiscussion.com/2022/11/20/week-12-cfp-eliminator-who-can-survive-chaos/#respond</comments> <dc:creator><![CDATA[Yesh Ginsburg]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Sun, 20 Nov 2022 17:59:27 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[College Football]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Alabama Crimson Tide]]></category> <category><![CDATA[CFP Eliminator]]></category> <category><![CDATA[CFP Implications]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Clemson Tigers]]></category> <category><![CDATA[College Football Playoff]]></category> <category><![CDATA[College Football Playoff selection committee]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Georgia Bulldogs]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Michigan Wolverines]]></category> <category><![CDATA[North Carolina Tar Heels]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Ohio State Buckeyes]]></category> <category><![CDATA[UCLA Bruins]]></category> <category><![CDATA[USC Trojans]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Utah Utes]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">http://allsportsdiscussion.com/?p=35993</guid> <description><![CDATA[With just two weeks left in the season–and one of those weeks has a limited number of games–there is now a pretty distinct number of possible outcomes this year. In certain ways, this makes The Eliminator’s job very easy. Let’s find the most chaotic scenario we can, and ask who’s left out. If we know … </p><p><a class="more-link block-button" href="https://allsportsdiscussion.com/2022/11/20/week-12-cfp-eliminator-who-can-survive-chaos/">Continue reading »</a>]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://i0.wp.com/allsportsdiscussion.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/College-Football-Playoff-1.jpeg"><img decoding="async" data-attachment-id="35995" data-permalink="https://allsportsdiscussion.com/2022/11/20/week-12-cfp-eliminator-who-can-survive-chaos/college-football-playoff-25/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/allsportsdiscussion.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/College-Football-Playoff-1.jpeg?fit=150%2C150&ssl=1" data-orig-size="150,150" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="College-Football-Playoff" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/allsportsdiscussion.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/College-Football-Playoff-1.jpeg?fit=150%2C150&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/allsportsdiscussion.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/College-Football-Playoff-1.jpeg?fit=150%2C150&ssl=1" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-35995" src="https://i0.wp.com/allsportsdiscussion.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/College-Football-Playoff-1.jpeg?resize=150%2C150" alt="" width="150" height="150" data-recalc-dims="1" /></a></p> <p>With just two weeks left in the season–and one of those weeks has a limited number of games–there is now a pretty distinct number of possible outcomes this year.</p> <p>In certain ways, this makes The Eliminator’s job very easy. Let’s find the most chaotic scenario we can, and ask who’s left out. If we know who can’t get in even with extreme chaos, we know who is eliminated. So, what’s our chaos scenario?</p> <p>For starters, let’s have Georgia win out. That keeps LSU out of the picture. Next, let’s say Ohio State easily beats Michigan. The Wolverines have a weaker resume than the Buckeyes (due to a terrible nonconference schedule), so Michigan getting blown out in The Game is the easiest way to open a spot.</p> <p>That locks two teams into the Playoff (Georgia and Ohio State). Now, what do we need to see for chaos? Let’s say North Carolina beats Clemson, Notre Dame beats USC, and TCU loses its final two games. Who still has a chance? Can North Carolina get in? Is USC still viable with two losses? Washington and Oregon can be two-loss Pac 12 champions, but each would have extremely weak resumes, and would take unreasonable amounts of chaos (like North Carolina losing to N.C. State before beating Clemson, and Auburn beating Alabama) to be in the picture. Is Alabama able to back its way in?</p> <p>I do know that with the nature of the blowout this past week, Tennessee is out of the picture. Even if Hendon Hooker is fully healthy (he hopefully is), giving up 63 to South Carolina is too much to overcome.</p> <h3>How it works</h3> <p>In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams on this <a href="https://twitter.com/yesh222/status/1563194565661790208" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Twitter thread</a>. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.</p> <p>I need to start with two notes about the process.</p> <p><strong>1. The premise:</strong> My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only: if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to assume a future loss.</p> <p>Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in modern college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are.</p> <p>Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.</p> <p><strong>2. Group of 5 teams:</strong> My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory––crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance. With the way this year has begun, no G5 team had a real chance this year.</p> <h3>Week 12: Teams Remaining</h3> <p>As the season goes on, I’ll add more detailed notes by each team explaining why a questionable team has not yet been eliminated. For now, though, we’ll start with just the list. We began the year with 130 teams (James Madison is still transitioning to FBS and is not eligible for the postseason this year). We began Week 12 with 12 teams alive, and three more were eliminated this week. Therefore, nine teams currently remain in College Football Playoff contention.</p> <h4><strong>ACC:</strong></h4> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <th>Team:</th> <th>Notes:</th> </tr> <tr> <td>Clemson</td> <td>Got some good chaos this week, and South Carolina could be another quality win. Picture much better for Clemson than a week ago.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>North Carolina</td> <td>Needs a miraculous amount of chaos.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h4><strong>Big 12:</strong></h4> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>TCU</td> <td>Undefeated so far.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h4><strong>Big Ten:</strong></h4> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Michigan</td> <td>Undefeated so far.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Ohio State</td> <td>Undefeated so far. Has a solid chance of getting in even with a loss.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h4><strong>Pac 12:</strong></h4> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">UCLA</span></del></td> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">Eliminated with third loss.</span></del></td> </tr> <tr> <td>USC</td> <td>Painful loss to Utah means no margin for error.</td> </tr> <tr> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">Utah</span></del></td> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">Eliminated with third loss.</span></del></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h4><strong>SEC:</strong></h4> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Alabama</td> <td>Needs tons of chaos to stay on the fringes of the Playoff picture.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Georgia</td> <td>Undefeated so far.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>LSU</td> <td>Needs to run the table, but possibly a lock if it does.</td> </tr> <tr> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">Tennessee</span></del></td> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">Eliminated with blowout second loss.</span></del></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h3>Teams Eliminated</h3> <p>This season I will only be listing Power 5 teams in this section.</p> <p><strong>Week 12:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Tennessee</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses, one of which was an ugly blowout, and no path to the SEC championship</td> </tr> <tr> <td>UCLA</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Utah</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 11:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Illinois</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Mississippi</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and not enough quality win potential</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oregon</td> <td>Eliminated with a second loss after a 46-point blowout loss to Georgia in Week 1</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 10:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Maryland</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oregon State</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Syracuse</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 9:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kentucky</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>N.C. State</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and being knocked out of the ACC title hunt</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oklahoma State</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses, one an extremely embarrassing blowout</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penn State</td> <td>Eliminated with losses to the two best teams on the schedule and not much other quality win potential</td> </tr> <tr> <td>South Carolina</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Wake Forest</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and being knocked out of the ACC title hunt</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 8:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kansas State</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses, including one to Tulane, and not enough quality win potential as the Big 12 will beat itself up</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Mississippi State</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Pittsburgh</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Purdue</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Texas</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 7:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Baylor</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>California</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Duke</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Florida</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Florida State</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kansas</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and not enough quality win potential</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Minnesota</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and not enough quality win potential</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 6:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Auburn</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses and would need far too much chaos even with wins over Georgia and Alabama</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Arizona</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Arkansas</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Indiana</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Iowa</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Iowa State</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Miami</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oklahoma</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Rutgers</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Texas A&M</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Texas Tech</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Washington</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and lack of quality win opportunities remaining on its Pac 12 schedule</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Washington State</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and lack of quality win opportunities remaining on its Pac 12 schedule</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Vanderbilt</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 5:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Louisville</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Michigan State</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Missouri</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Stanford</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Virginia Tech</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>West Virginia</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Wisconsin</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 4:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Boston College</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Georgia Tech</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Notre Dame</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses, one of them very bad. Even solid remaining schedule can’t overcome loss to Marshall.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Virginia</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and not enough quality win potential on the schedule</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 3:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Arizona State</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses (one exceedingly ugly) and not enough quality win potential</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Colorado</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Nebraska</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Northwestern</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to FCS Southern Illinois</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Make sure you follow the All Sports Discussion Twitter account at <a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fallsportsdacc&sa=D&sntz=1&usg=AFQjCNH80neHSsrNqatIx7rdXWPR9U0_VA" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.google.com/url?q%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Ftwitter.com%252Fallsportsdacc%26sa%3DD%26sntz%3D1%26usg%3DAFQjCNH80neHSsrNqatIx7rdXWPR9U0_VA&source=gmail&ust=1486166502870000&usg=AFQjCNGgOzqUxiig-tlkIjyFOnLEhGtpRQ">@AllSportsDACC</a> and please like our <a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fpages%2FAll-Sports-Discussion%2F184935911533629%3Ffref%3Dts&sa=D&sntz=1&usg=AFQjCNEWEAihdwfmDazuSSnX5l4sK20orQ" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.google.com/url?q%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.facebook.com%252Fpages%252FAll-Sports-Discussion%252F184935911533629%253Ffref%253Dts%26sa%3DD%26sntz%3D1%26usg%3DAFQjCNEWEAihdwfmDazuSSnX5l4sK20orQ&source=gmail&ust=1486166502870000&usg=AFQjCNGr19chQ7IW8VRHn1DFxQH94mz21A">Facebook Page</a></strong></p> <br> <center> <script async src="//pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js"></script> <!-- Bottom_Post --> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:inline-block;width:468px;height:60px" data-ad-client="ca-pub-1227879969298088" data-ad-slot="1445137322"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <br> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js"></script> <!-- Horizontal_6 --> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:inline-block;width:468px;height:60px" data-ad-client="ca-pub-1227879969298088" data-ad-slot="4619304738"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> </center>]]></content:encoded> <wfw:commentRss>https://allsportsdiscussion.com/2022/11/20/week-12-cfp-eliminator-who-can-survive-chaos/feed/</wfw:commentRss> <slash:comments>0</slash:comments> <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">35993</post-id> </item> <item> <title>Week 11 CFP Eliminator: Who’s #4?</title> <link>https://allsportsdiscussion.com/2022/11/13/week-11-cfp-eliminator-whos-4/</link> <comments>https://allsportsdiscussion.com/2022/11/13/week-11-cfp-eliminator-whos-4/#respond</comments> <dc:creator><![CDATA[Yesh Ginsburg]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Sun, 13 Nov 2022 19:04:31 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[College Football]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Alabama Crimson Tide]]></category> <category><![CDATA[CFP Eliminator]]></category> <category><![CDATA[CFP Implications]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Clemson Tigers]]></category> <category><![CDATA[College Football Playoff]]></category> <category><![CDATA[College Football Playoff selection committee]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Georgia Bulldogs]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Michigan Wolverines]]></category> <category><![CDATA[North Carolina Tar Heels]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Ohio State Buckeyes]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Ole Miss Rebels]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Oregon Ducks]]></category> <category><![CDATA[TCU Horned Frogs]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Tennessee Volunteers]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">http://allsportsdiscussion.com/?p=35942</guid> <description><![CDATA[It’s somewhat of a strange year for the College Football Playoff picture. Everyone assumes that Georgia won’t lose–at least not before the SEC Championship Game and the Bulldogs certainly look like it. Meanwhile, Ohio State and Michigan are looking at locking up a bid for the winner of The Game as long as both enter … </p><p><a class="more-link block-button" href="https://allsportsdiscussion.com/2022/11/13/week-11-cfp-eliminator-whos-4/">Continue reading »</a>]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://i0.wp.com/allsportsdiscussion.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/College-Football-Playoff.jpeg"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="35944" data-permalink="https://allsportsdiscussion.com/2022/11/13/week-11-cfp-eliminator-whos-4/college-football-playoff-24/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/allsportsdiscussion.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/College-Football-Playoff.jpeg?fit=150%2C150&ssl=1" data-orig-size="150,150" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="College-Football-Playoff" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/allsportsdiscussion.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/College-Football-Playoff.jpeg?fit=150%2C150&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/allsportsdiscussion.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/College-Football-Playoff.jpeg?fit=150%2C150&ssl=1" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-35944" src="https://i0.wp.com/allsportsdiscussion.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/College-Football-Playoff.jpeg?resize=150%2C150" alt="" width="150" height="150" data-recalc-dims="1" /></a></p> <p>It’s somewhat of a strange year for the College Football Playoff picture. Everyone assumes that Georgia won’t lose–at least not before the SEC Championship Game and the Bulldogs certainly look like it. Meanwhile, Ohio State and Michigan are looking at locking up a bid for the winner of The Game as long as both enter undefeated. TCU is somehow escaping game after game. And while the Horned Frogs don’t look like a potential National Championship team, their toughest games (until the Big 12 Championship Game) are behind them.</p> <p>The biggest problem, though, is that the teams that haven’t lost don’t have real resumes. There’s been so much parity and weakness among teams behind the top teams–power conferences are so top-heavy this year. This means that teams still in the Playoff hunt have far weaker resumes than we usually see from Playoff teams. The Big Ten East runner-up is looking at either one (Michigan) or two (Ohio State) ranked wins, maximum. North Carolina, even if the Tar Heels win out, likely will only have a win over Clemson in the ACC Championship Game.</p> <p>Alabama, at 10-2, would likely have one ranked win, maybe a second if Texas somehow stays ranked through the end of the year. Meanwhile, the two-loss Pac 12 teams seem to have several potential ranked wins, as the conference has five top teams in a top-heavy league, the most of any power conference. (The SEC also has five highly-ranked teams, but they don’t play each other at the same rate the Pac 12 does.)</p> <p>In other words, if TCU drops a game or two, and/or the ACC champion has two losses, things are going to get weird.</p> <h3>How it works</h3> <p>In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams on this <a href="https://twitter.com/yesh222/status/1563194565661790208" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Twitter thread</a>. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.</p> <p>I need to start with two notes about the process.</p> <p><strong>1. The premise:</strong> My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only: if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to assume a future loss.</p> <p>Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in modern college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are.</p> <p>Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.</p> <p><strong>2. Group of 5 teams:</strong> My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory––crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance. With the way this year has begun, no G5 team had a real chance this year.</p> <h3>Week 11: Teams Remaining</h3> <p>As the season goes on, I’ll add more detailed notes by each team explaining why a questionable team has not yet been eliminated. For now, though, we’ll start with just the list. We began the year with 130 teams (James Madison is still transitioning to FBS and is not eligible for the postseason this year). We began Week 11 with 15 teams alive, and three more were eliminated this week. Therefore, 12 teams currently remain in College Football Playoff contention.</p> <h4><strong>ACC:</strong></h4> <p> </p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <th>Team:</th> <th>Notes:</th> </tr> <tr> <td>Clemson</td> <td>Loss to Notre Dame really hurts resume; needs some chaos to be in the picture.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>North Carolina</td> <td>No real resume, but 12-1 and ACC champs might be enough this year.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h4><strong>Big 12:</strong></h4> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>TCU</td> <td>Undefeated so far.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h4><strong>Big Ten:</strong></h4> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">Illinois</span></del></td> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">Eliminated with third loss.</span></del></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Michigan</td> <td>Undefeated so far.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Ohio State</td> <td>Undefeated so far.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h4><strong>Pac 12:</strong></h4> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">Oregon</span></del></td> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">Eliminated with second loss after blowout against Georgia.</span></del></td> </tr> <tr> <td>UCLA</td> <td>Loss to Oregon, but still a chance if it wins out.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>USC</td> <td>Painful loss to Utah means no margin for error.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Utah</td> <td>Likely will be eliminated even without another loss, but lots of quality win opportunities remain.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h4><strong>SEC:</strong></h4> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Alabama</td> <td>Needs tons of chaos next week to stay on the fringes of the Playoff picture.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Georgia</td> <td>Undefeated so far.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>LSU</td> <td>Needs to run the table, but possibly a lock if it does.</td> </tr> <tr> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">Mississippi</span></del></td> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">Eliminated after being locked out of SEC Championship chase.</span></del></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Tennessee</td> <td>Loss to Georgia means needs chaos to get back in the picture.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h3>Teams Eliminated</h3> <p>This season I will only be listing Power 5 teams in this section.</p> <p><strong>Week 11:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Illinois</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Mississippi</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and not enough quality win potential</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oregon</td> <td>Eliminated with a second loss after a 46-point blowout loss to Georgia in Week 1</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 10:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Maryland</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oregon State</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Syracuse</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 9:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kentucky</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>N.C. State</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and being knocked out of the ACC title hunt</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oklahoma State</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses, one an extremely embarrassing blowout</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penn State</td> <td>Eliminated with losses to the two best teams on the schedule and not much other quality win potential</td> </tr> <tr> <td>South Carolina</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Wake Forest</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and being knocked out of the ACC title hunt</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 8:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kansas State</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses, including one to Tulane, and not enough quality win potential as the Big 12 will beat itself up</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Mississippi State</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Pittsburgh</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Purdue</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Texas</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 7:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Baylor</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>California</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Duke</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Florida</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Florida State</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kansas</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and not enough quality win potential</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Minnesota</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and not enough quality win potential</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 6:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Auburn</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses and would need far too much chaos even with wins over Georgia and Alabama</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Arizona</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Arkansas</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Indiana</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Iowa</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Iowa State</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Miami</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oklahoma</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Rutgers</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Texas A&M</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Texas Tech</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Washington</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and lack of quality win opportunities remaining on its Pac 12 schedule</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Washington State</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and lack of quality win opportunities remaining on its Pac 12 schedule</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Vanderbilt</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 5:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Louisville</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Michigan State</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Missouri</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Stanford</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Virginia Tech</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>West Virginia</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Wisconsin</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 4:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Boston College</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Georgia Tech</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Notre Dame</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses, one of them very bad. Even solid remaining schedule can’t overcome loss to Marshall.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Virginia</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and not enough quality win potential on the schedule</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 3:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Arizona State</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses (one exceedingly ugly) and not enough quality win potential</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Colorado</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Nebraska</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Northwestern</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to FCS Southern Illinois</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Make sure you follow the All Sports Discussion Twitter account at <a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fallsportsdacc&sa=D&sntz=1&usg=AFQjCNH80neHSsrNqatIx7rdXWPR9U0_VA" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.google.com/url?q%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Ftwitter.com%252Fallsportsdacc%26sa%3DD%26sntz%3D1%26usg%3DAFQjCNH80neHSsrNqatIx7rdXWPR9U0_VA&source=gmail&ust=1486166502870000&usg=AFQjCNGgOzqUxiig-tlkIjyFOnLEhGtpRQ">@AllSportsDACC</a> and please like our <a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fpages%2FAll-Sports-Discussion%2F184935911533629%3Ffref%3Dts&sa=D&sntz=1&usg=AFQjCNEWEAihdwfmDazuSSnX5l4sK20orQ" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.google.com/url?q%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.facebook.com%252Fpages%252FAll-Sports-Discussion%252F184935911533629%253Ffref%253Dts%26sa%3DD%26sntz%3D1%26usg%3DAFQjCNEWEAihdwfmDazuSSnX5l4sK20orQ&source=gmail&ust=1486166502870000&usg=AFQjCNGr19chQ7IW8VRHn1DFxQH94mz21A">Facebook Page</a></strong></p> <br> <center> <script async src="//pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js"></script> <!-- Bottom_Post --> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:inline-block;width:468px;height:60px" data-ad-client="ca-pub-1227879969298088" data-ad-slot="1445137322"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <br> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js"></script> <!-- Horizontal_6 --> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:inline-block;width:468px;height:60px" data-ad-client="ca-pub-1227879969298088" data-ad-slot="4619304738"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> </center>]]></content:encoded> <wfw:commentRss>https://allsportsdiscussion.com/2022/11/13/week-11-cfp-eliminator-whos-4/feed/</wfw:commentRss> <slash:comments>0</slash:comments> <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">35942</post-id> </item> <item> <title>Week 8 CFP Eliminator: Who Really has a Chance?</title> <link>https://allsportsdiscussion.com/2022/10/23/week-8-cfp-eliminator-who-really-has-a-chance/</link> <comments>https://allsportsdiscussion.com/2022/10/23/week-8-cfp-eliminator-who-really-has-a-chance/#respond</comments> <dc:creator><![CDATA[Yesh Ginsburg]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Sun, 23 Oct 2022 18:04:59 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[College Football]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Alabama Crimson Tide]]></category> <category><![CDATA[CFP Eliminator]]></category> <category><![CDATA[CFP Implications]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Clemson Tigers]]></category> <category><![CDATA[College Football Playoff]]></category> <category><![CDATA[College Football Playoff selection committee]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Georgia Bulldogs]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Kansas State Wildcats]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Michigan Wolverines]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Ohio State Buckeyes]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Pittsburgh Panthers]]></category> <category><![CDATA[TCU Horned Frogs]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Tennessee Volunteers]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Texas Longhorns]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">http://allsportsdiscussion.com/?p=35805</guid> <description><![CDATA[As we go through this week’s Eliminator, we have 24 teams still alive. Of those 24, though, less than a dozen are serious contenders. It’s looking more and more like we’re on a path to some runaway playoff teams this season. Clemson has survived its biggest challenges and looks pretty likely to finish undefeated. So … </p><p><a class="more-link block-button" href="https://allsportsdiscussion.com/2022/10/23/week-8-cfp-eliminator-who-really-has-a-chance/">Continue reading »</a>]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://i0.wp.com/allsportsdiscussion.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/College-Football-Playoff-3.jpeg"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="35812" data-permalink="https://allsportsdiscussion.com/2022/10/23/week-8-cfp-eliminator-who-really-has-a-chance/college-football-playoff-23/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/allsportsdiscussion.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/College-Football-Playoff-3.jpeg?fit=150%2C150&ssl=1" data-orig-size="150,150" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="College-Football-Playoff" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/allsportsdiscussion.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/College-Football-Playoff-3.jpeg?fit=150%2C150&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/allsportsdiscussion.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/College-Football-Playoff-3.jpeg?fit=150%2C150&ssl=1" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-35812" src="https://i0.wp.com/allsportsdiscussion.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/College-Football-Playoff-3.jpeg?resize=150%2C150" alt="" width="150" height="150" data-recalc-dims="1" /></a></p> <p>As we go through this week’s Eliminator, we have 24 teams still alive. Of those 24, though, less than a dozen are serious contenders.</p> <p>It’s looking more and more like we’re on a path to some runaway playoff teams this season. Clemson has survived its biggest challenges and looks pretty likely to finish undefeated. So does TCU. Either Ohio State or Michigan will come out of the Big Ten, almost certainly. And we’ll get an SEC champion that’s a near-lock for the Playoff. Four spots, four teams.</p> <p>More importantly, though, there are such obvious fallback next teams up if Clemson or TCU slips. A one-loss SEC runner-up (or SEC East runner-up) will have the inside track to the Playoff over a one-loss Pac 12 champion (especially if the two teams involved are Georgia and Oregon). A one-loss Big Ten East runner-up will also probably slot up ahead of a non-Clemson ACC champion or the Pac 12 champion. So yes, 24 teams are still alive. But everyone outside of Clemson, TCU, Ohio State, Michigan, Georgia, Tennessee, and Alabama are very much hoping for chaos right now. And chaos might be coming, but we’re starting to run out of time.</p> <h3>How it works</h3> <p>In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams on this <a href="https://twitter.com/yesh222/status/1563194565661790208" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Twitter thread</a>. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.</p> <p>I need to start with two notes about the process.</p> <p><strong>1. The premise:</strong> My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only: if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to assume a future loss.</p> <p>Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in modern college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are.</p> <p>Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.</p> <p><strong>2. Group of 5 teams:</strong> My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory––crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance. With the way this year has begun, no G5 team has a real chance this year, though technically two are still alive.</p> <h3>Week 8: Teams Remaining</h3> <p>As the season goes on, I’ll add more detailed notes by each team explaining why a questionable team has not yet been eliminated. For now, though, we’ll start with just the list. We began the year with 130 teams (James Madison is still transitioning to FBS and is not eligible for the postseason this year). We began Week 8 with 29 teams alive, and five more were eliminated this week. Therefore, 24 teams currently remain in College Football Playoff contention.</p> <h4><strong>ACC:</strong></h4> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <th>Team:</th> <th>Notes:</th> </tr> <tr> <td>Clemson</td> <td>Undefeated so far.</td> </tr> <tr> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">Pittsburgh</span></del></td> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">Eliminated with three loss.</span></del></td> </tr> <tr> <td>N.C. State</td> <td>Two losses, none bad, but not much room to make up for it. Also needs to somehow win the division to stay alive.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>North Carolina</td> <td>Loss to Notre Dame getting worse, and this team has struggled against plenty of weak competition.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Syracuse</td> <td>In solid shape if it can win out, but somehow needs Clemson to slip up enough to win the division.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Wake Forest</td> <td>In solid shape if it can win out, but somehow needs Clemson to slip up enough to win the division.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h4><strong>Big 12:</strong></h4> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">Kansas State</span></del></td> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">Eliminated with two losses and not enough eventual quality win potential.</span></del></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oklahoma State</td> <td>Brutally painful loss to TCU but likely still controls own destiny.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>TCU</td> <td>Undefeated so far.</td> </tr> <tr> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">Texas</span></del></td> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">Eliminated with three losses.</span></del></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h4><strong>Big Ten:</strong></h4> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Illinois</td> <td>Possibly a lock if it runs the table, but almost certainly out with one more loss.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Maryland</td> <td>Needs to run the table and get help to win the Big Ten East, but decent chance if it does.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Michigan</td> <td>Undefeated so far.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Ohio State</td> <td>Undefeated so far.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penn State</td> <td>Needs to run the table and get help to win the Big Ten East, but decent chance if it does.</td> </tr> <tr> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">Purdue</span></del></td> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">Eliminated with third loss.</span></del></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h4><strong>Pac 12:</strong></h4> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oregon</td> <td>Blowout loss to Georgia might mean already eliminated, but I’m keeping them around for now.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oregon State</td> <td>Likely will be eliminated even without another loss.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>UCLA</td> <td>Loss to Oregon, but still a chance if it wins out.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>USC</td> <td>Painful loss to Utah means no margin for error.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Utah</td> <td>Likely will be eliminated even without another loss.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h4><strong>SEC:</strong></h4> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Alabama</td> <td>One close loss to a good team won’t hurt, but Alabama is in trouble if it suffers another.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Georgia</td> <td>Undefeated so far.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kentucky</td> <td>Upset second loss means likely eliminated even without another loss.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>LSU</td> <td>Needs to run the table, but possibly a lock if it does.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Mississippi</td> <td>Still a lock if it runs the table.</td> </tr> <tr> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">Mississippi State</span></del></td> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">Eliminated with third loss.</span></del></td> </tr> <tr> <td>South Carolina</td> <td>Likely eliminated even without another loss.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Tennessee</td> <td>Undefeated so far.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h3>Teams Eliminated</h3> <p>As the season goes on, I’ll give more detail in the reason for each elimination. This season I will only be listing Power 5 teams in this section.</p> <p><strong>Week 8:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kansas State</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses, including one to Tulane, and not enough quality win potential as the Big 12 will beat itself up</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Mississippi State</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Pittsburgh</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Purdue</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Texas</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 7:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Baylor</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>California</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Duke</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Florida</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Florida State</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kansas</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and not enough quality win potential</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Minnesota</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and not enough quality win potential</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 6:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Auburn</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses and would need far too much chaos even with wins over Georgia and Alabama</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Arizona</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Arkansas</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Indiana</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Iowa</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Iowa State</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Miami</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oklahoma</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Rutgers</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Texas A&M</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Texas Tech</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Washington</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and lack of quality win opportunities remaining on its Pac 12 schedule</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Washington State</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and lack of quality win opportunities remaining on its Pac 12 schedule</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Vanderbilt</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 5:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Louisville</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Michigan State</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Missouri</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Stanford</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Virginia Tech</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>West Virginia</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Wisconsin</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 4:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Boston College</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Georgia Tech</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Notre Dame</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses, one of them very bad. Even solid remaining schedule can’t overcome loss to Marshall.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Virginia</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and not enough quality win potential on the schedule</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 3:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Arizona State</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses (one exceedingly ugly) and not enough quality win potential</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Colorado</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Nebraska</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Northwestern</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to FCS Southern Illinois</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Make sure you follow the All Sports Discussion Twitter account at <a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fallsportsdacc&sa=D&sntz=1&usg=AFQjCNH80neHSsrNqatIx7rdXWPR9U0_VA" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.google.com/url?q%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Ftwitter.com%252Fallsportsdacc%26sa%3DD%26sntz%3D1%26usg%3DAFQjCNH80neHSsrNqatIx7rdXWPR9U0_VA&source=gmail&ust=1486166502870000&usg=AFQjCNGgOzqUxiig-tlkIjyFOnLEhGtpRQ">@AllSportsDACC</a> and please like our <a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fpages%2FAll-Sports-Discussion%2F184935911533629%3Ffref%3Dts&sa=D&sntz=1&usg=AFQjCNEWEAihdwfmDazuSSnX5l4sK20orQ" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.google.com/url?q%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.facebook.com%252Fpages%252FAll-Sports-Discussion%252F184935911533629%253Ffref%253Dts%26sa%3DD%26sntz%3D1%26usg%3DAFQjCNEWEAihdwfmDazuSSnX5l4sK20orQ&source=gmail&ust=1486166502870000&usg=AFQjCNGr19chQ7IW8VRHn1DFxQH94mz21A">Facebook Page</a></strong></p> <br> <center> <script async src="//pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js"></script> <!-- Bottom_Post --> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:inline-block;width:468px;height:60px" data-ad-client="ca-pub-1227879969298088" data-ad-slot="1445137322"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <br> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js"></script> <!-- Horizontal_6 --> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:inline-block;width:468px;height:60px" data-ad-client="ca-pub-1227879969298088" data-ad-slot="4619304738"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> </center>]]></content:encoded> <wfw:commentRss>https://allsportsdiscussion.com/2022/10/23/week-8-cfp-eliminator-who-really-has-a-chance/feed/</wfw:commentRss> <slash:comments>0</slash:comments> <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">35805</post-id> </item> <item> <title>Week 7 CFP Eliminator: Potential Weirdness Taking Shape</title> <link>https://allsportsdiscussion.com/2022/10/16/week-7-cfp-eliminator-potential-weirdness-taking-shape/</link> <comments>https://allsportsdiscussion.com/2022/10/16/week-7-cfp-eliminator-potential-weirdness-taking-shape/#respond</comments> <dc:creator><![CDATA[Yesh Ginsburg]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Sun, 16 Oct 2022 17:19:32 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[College Football]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Alabama Crimson Tide]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Baylor Bears]]></category> <category><![CDATA[CFP Eliminator]]></category> <category><![CDATA[CFP Implications]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Clemson Tigers]]></category> <category><![CDATA[College Football Playoff]]></category> <category><![CDATA[College Football Playoff selection committee]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Florida Gators]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Florida State Seminoles]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Kansas Jayhawks]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Minnesota Golden Gophers]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Ohio State Buckeyes]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">http://allsportsdiscussion.com/?p=35766</guid> <description><![CDATA[The Eliminator is running into a bit of a problem. We still have a fair list of contenders–29 teams remaining, and a dozen of the most serious contenders–but those serious contenders are somewhat concentrated in a few divisions. We are on the verge of seeing chaos come about if we get one–let alone two–upsets in … </p><p><a class="more-link block-button" href="https://allsportsdiscussion.com/2022/10/16/week-7-cfp-eliminator-potential-weirdness-taking-shape/">Continue reading »</a>]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center;"> <p style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://i0.wp.com/allsportsdiscussion.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/College-Football-Playoff-2.jpeg"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="35809" data-permalink="https://allsportsdiscussion.com/2022/10/16/week-7-cfp-eliminator-potential-weirdness-taking-shape/college-football-playoff-22/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/allsportsdiscussion.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/College-Football-Playoff-2.jpeg?fit=150%2C150&ssl=1" data-orig-size="150,150" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="College-Football-Playoff" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/allsportsdiscussion.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/College-Football-Playoff-2.jpeg?fit=150%2C150&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/allsportsdiscussion.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/College-Football-Playoff-2.jpeg?fit=150%2C150&ssl=1" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-35809" src="https://i0.wp.com/allsportsdiscussion.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/College-Football-Playoff-2.jpeg?resize=150%2C150" alt="" width="150" height="150" data-recalc-dims="1" /></a></p> <p>The Eliminator is running into a bit of a problem. We still have a fair list of contenders–29 teams remaining, and a dozen of the most serious contenders–but those serious contenders are somewhat concentrated in a few divisions. We are on the verge of seeing chaos come about if we get one–let alone two–upsets in Conference Championship Games.</p> <p>Purdue and Illinois are both still alive, but the Big Ten West is likely functionally eliminated. (We know the premise of the Eliminator is that any team could win out, but we’re pretty sure Illinois isn’t running the table.) But what if a team from that division wins the Big Ten Championship Game? The same is true of the ACC Coastal. Would the Ohio State-Michigan winner get in over a team that just beat them? Would Clemson? And let’s not get started on the Pac 12 North, where the likely best division champion has a 46-point Week 1 loss hanging on that resume like an anvil.</p> <p>There are plenty of opportunities for more chaos before we get there, of course. It’s looking less and less likely, though, which means that from here on out the Eliminator needs to keep in mind alternative scenarios for what happens if we get weirdness in the Conference Championship Games.</p> <p>As a funny note, for the second straight week we goodbye to a pair of in-state rivals. Last week, the Washington schools bowed out of Playoff contention together. This week, it’s Florida and Florida State. Maybe the Sunshine State will be back in the CFP hunt next year.</p> <h3>How it works</h3> <p>In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams on this <a href="https://twitter.com/yesh222/status/1563194565661790208" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Twitter thread</a>. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.</p> <p>I need to start with two notes about the process.</p> <p><strong>1. The premise:</strong> My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only: if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to assume a future loss.</p> <p>Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in modern college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are.</p> <p>Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.</p> <p><strong>2. Group of 5 teams:</strong> My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory––crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance. With the way this year has begun, no G5 team has a real chance this year, though technically two are still alive.</p> <h3>Week 7: Teams Remaining</h3> <p>As the season goes on, I’ll add more detailed notes by each team explaining why a questionable team has not yet been eliminated. For now, though, we’ll start with just the list. We began the year with 130 teams (James Madison is still transitioning to FBS and is not eligible for the postseason this year). We began Week 7 with 37 teams alive, and eight more were eliminated this week. Therefore, 29 teams currently remain in College Football Playoff contention.</p> <p>I include Notre Dame in the ACC in this roundup for simplicity.</p> <h4><strong>ACC:</strong></h4> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <th>Team:</th> <th>Notes:</th> </tr> <tr> <td>Clemson</td> <td>Undefeated so far.</td> </tr> <tr> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">Duke</span></del></td> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">Eliminated with third loss.</span></del></td> </tr> <tr> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">Florida State</span></del></td> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">Eliminated with third loss.</span></del></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Pittsburgh</td> <td>Likely will be eliminated even without another loss.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>N.C. State</td> <td>Two losses, none bad, but not much room to make up for it. Also needs to somehow win the division to stay alive.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>North Carolina</td> <td>Loss to Notre Dame getting worse, and this team has struggled against plenty of weak competition.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Syracuse</td> <td>Undefeated so far.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Wake Forest</td> <td>Won’t be punished for 2OT loss to Clemson.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h4><strong>Big 12:</strong></h4> <p> </p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Team:</span></td> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Notes:</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td><del><span style="font-weight: 400; color: #ff0000;">Baylor</span></del></td> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">Eliminated with third loss.</span></del></td> </tr> <tr> <td><del><span style="font-weight: 400; color: #ff0000;">Kansas</span></del></td> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">Two losses and nowhere near enough quality win potential on the schedule.</span></del></td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Kansas State</span></td> <td>Loss to Tulane leaves no room for error.</td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Oklahoma State</span></td> <td>Brutally painful loss to TCU but likely still controls own destiny.</td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">TCU</span></td> <td>Undefeated so far.</td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Texas</span></td> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">No idea how committee will deal with two-loss Texas, but one more loss makes it moot.</span></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h4><strong>Big Ten:</strong></h4> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Maryland</td> <td>Needs to run the table, but decent chance if it does.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Michigan</td> <td>Undefeated so far.</td> </tr> <tr> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">Minnesota</span></del></td> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">Eliminated with two losses and not enough strength in cross-divisional games.</span></del></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Ohio State</td> <td>Undefeated so far.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penn State</td> <td>Did not look great in loss to Michigan. Needs to win out to have a chance.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Purdue</td> <td>Weak cross-divisional schedule means likely eliminated even without another loss.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h4><strong>Pac 12:</strong></h4> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">California</span></del></td> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">Eliminated with third loss.</span></del></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oregon</td> <td>Blowout loss to Georgia might mean already eliminated, but I’m keeping them around for now.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oregon State</td> <td>Likely will be eliminated even without another loss.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>UCLA</td> <td>Undefeated so far.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>USC</td> <td>Painful loss to Utah means no margin for error.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Utah</td> <td>Likely will be eliminated even without another loss.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h4><strong>SEC:</strong></h4> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Alabama</td> <td>One close loss to a good team won’t hurt, but Alabama is in trouble if it suffers another.</td> </tr> <tr> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">Florida</span></del></td> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">Eliminated with third loss.</span></del></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Georgia</td> <td>Undefeated so far.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kentucky</td> <td>Upset second loss means likely eliminated even without another loss.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>LSU</td> <td>Needs to run the table, but possibly a lock if it does.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Mississippi</td> <td>Undefeated so far.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Mississippi State</td> <td>Two losses, but tons of opportunities remain on schedule.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>South Carolina</td> <td>Likely eliminated even without another loss.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Tennessee</td> <td>Undefeated so far.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h3>Teams Eliminated</h3> <p>As the season goes on, I’ll give more detail in the reason for each elimination. This season I will only be listing Power 5 teams in this section.</p> <p><strong>Week 7:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Baylor</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>California</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Duke</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Florida</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Florida State</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kansas</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and not enough quality win potential</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Minnesota</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and not enough quality win potential</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 6:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Auburn</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses and would need far too much chaos even with wins over Georgia and Alabama</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Arizona</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Arkansas</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Indiana</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Iowa</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Iowa State</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Miami</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oklahoma</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Rutgers</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Texas A&M</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Texas Tech</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Washington</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and lack of quality win opportunities remaining on its Pac 12 schedule</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Washington State</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and lack of quality win opportunities remaining on its Pac 12 schedule</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Vanderbilt</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 5:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Louisville</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Michigan State</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Missouri</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Stanford</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Virginia Tech</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>West Virginia</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Wisconsin</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 4:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Boston College</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Georgia Tech</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Notre Dame</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses, one of them very bad. Even solid remaining schedule can’t overcome loss to Marshall.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Virginia</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and not enough quality win potential on the schedule</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 3:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Arizona State</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses (one exceedingly ugly) and not enough quality win potential</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Colorado</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Nebraska</td> <td>Eliminated with three losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Northwestern</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to FCS Southern Illinois</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Make sure you follow the All Sports Discussion Twitter account at <a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fallsportsdacc&sa=D&sntz=1&usg=AFQjCNH80neHSsrNqatIx7rdXWPR9U0_VA" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.google.com/url?q%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Ftwitter.com%252Fallsportsdacc%26sa%3DD%26sntz%3D1%26usg%3DAFQjCNH80neHSsrNqatIx7rdXWPR9U0_VA&source=gmail&ust=1486166502870000&usg=AFQjCNGgOzqUxiig-tlkIjyFOnLEhGtpRQ">@AllSportsDACC</a> and please like our <a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fpages%2FAll-Sports-Discussion%2F184935911533629%3Ffref%3Dts&sa=D&sntz=1&usg=AFQjCNEWEAihdwfmDazuSSnX5l4sK20orQ" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.google.com/url?q%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.facebook.com%252Fpages%252FAll-Sports-Discussion%252F184935911533629%253Ffref%253Dts%26sa%3DD%26sntz%3D1%26usg%3DAFQjCNEWEAihdwfmDazuSSnX5l4sK20orQ&source=gmail&ust=1486166502870000&usg=AFQjCNGr19chQ7IW8VRHn1DFxQH94mz21A">Facebook Page</a></strong></p> <br> <center> <script async src="//pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js"></script> <!-- Bottom_Post --> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:inline-block;width:468px;height:60px" data-ad-client="ca-pub-1227879969298088" data-ad-slot="1445137322"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <br> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js"></script> <!-- Horizontal_6 --> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:inline-block;width:468px;height:60px" data-ad-client="ca-pub-1227879969298088" data-ad-slot="4619304738"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> </center>]]></content:encoded> <wfw:commentRss>https://allsportsdiscussion.com/2022/10/16/week-7-cfp-eliminator-potential-weirdness-taking-shape/feed/</wfw:commentRss> <slash:comments>0</slash:comments> <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">35766</post-id> </item> <item> <title>Selection Sunday CFP Eliminator: Three-Team Bubble, but One Stands Out</title> <link>https://allsportsdiscussion.com/2021/12/05/selection-sunday-cfp-eliminator-three-team-bubble-but-one-stands-out/</link> <comments>https://allsportsdiscussion.com/2021/12/05/selection-sunday-cfp-eliminator-three-team-bubble-but-one-stands-out/#respond</comments> <dc:creator><![CDATA[Yesh Ginsburg]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Sun, 05 Dec 2021 05:09:53 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[College Football]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Alabama Crimson Tide]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Baylor Bears]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Big Ten]]></category> <category><![CDATA[CFP Eliminator]]></category> <category><![CDATA[CFP Implications]]></category> <category><![CDATA[CFP selection committee]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Cincinnati Bearcats]]></category> <category><![CDATA[College Football Playoff]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Georgia Bulldogs]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Michigan Wolverines]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Notre Dame Fighting Irish]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Ohio State Buckeyes]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Oklahoma State Sooners]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Oregon Ducks]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Pac 12]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Wake Forest Demon Deacons]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">http://allsportsdiscussion.com/?p=33586</guid> <description><![CDATA[The games are down, and there are less than 12 hours of waiting for who the selection committee decides to put in the Playoff. We know three of them for sure: Alabama, Michigan, and Cincinnati have locked up their spots in the Playoff. Who will the fourth be? Conventional wisdom is that it will be … </p><p><a class="more-link block-button" href="https://allsportsdiscussion.com/2021/12/05/selection-sunday-cfp-eliminator-three-team-bubble-but-one-stands-out/">Continue reading »</a>]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://i0.wp.com/allsportsdiscussion.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Alabama-1.jpg"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="33590" data-permalink="https://allsportsdiscussion.com/2021/12/05/selection-sunday-cfp-eliminator-three-team-bubble-but-one-stands-out/alabama-32/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/allsportsdiscussion.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Alabama-1.jpg?fit=650%2C440&ssl=1" data-orig-size="650,440" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="Alabama" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/allsportsdiscussion.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Alabama-1.jpg?fit=300%2C203&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/allsportsdiscussion.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Alabama-1.jpg?fit=590%2C399&ssl=1" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-33590" src="https://i0.wp.com/allsportsdiscussion.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Alabama-1.jpg?resize=300%2C203" alt="" width="300" height="203" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/allsportsdiscussion.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Alabama-1.jpg?resize=300%2C203&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/allsportsdiscussion.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Alabama-1.jpg?w=650&ssl=1 650w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" data-recalc-dims="1" /></a></p> <p>The games are down, and there are less than 12 hours of waiting for who the selection committee decides to put in the Playoff. We know three of them for sure: Alabama, Michigan, and Cincinnati have locked up their spots in the Playoff. Who will the fourth be?</p> <p>Conventional wisdom is that it will be Georgia. And the Bulldogs do have a competitive resume. However, Notre Dame has a similar resume, with a closer (and far less recent) loss. Baylor, on the other hand, has a terrible loss (to 5-7 TCU), but the Bears have a better collection of top-end wins than any other team in the country. No one else has three Top 15 wins. Will that be enough to get the Bears consideration, even with two losses? Probably not. The final Playoff team is probably Georgia. But the committee will make it a discussion, and it’s not guaranteed enough for us to call it a lock. Therefore, this season we have a three-team bubble. Congratulations to the locks, good luck to the bubble teams, and we’ll see you all for the Eliminator again next year.</p> <h3>How the CFP Eliminator works</h3> <p>The goal is simple: We are going to count down every single FBS team that remains in contention for a College Football Playoff bid. We start with all of the FBS teams, and they get eliminated one by one until only a few remain.</p> <p>If the Playoff teams are obvious, we will only have four remaining Selection Sunday morning, like 2019. If, like 2018, there is a serious bubble with multiple teams with strong claims for the fourth spot, then we might have five (or, in 2014 and 2018, six) still alive on Selection Sunday.</p> <p>In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams on this <a href="https://twitter.com/yesh222/status/1431358656004730883" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Twitter thread</a>. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.</p> <p>I also need to add two notes about the process.</p> <p><strong>1. The premise:</strong> My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only: if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to assume a future loss.</p> <p>Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in modern college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are.</p> <p>Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.</p> <p><strong>2. Group of 5 teams:</strong> My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory––crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance.</p> <h3>Week 14: Teams Remaining</h3> <p>We began this week with nine teams. In Week 14, we eliminated three teams. Therefore, six teams currently remain in College Football Playoff contention. Three of those teams have locked up their Playoff bids.</p> <h4><strong>ACC:</strong></h4> <p>Eliminated</p> <h4><strong>American:</strong></h4> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Team:</span></td> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Notes:</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-weight: 400; color: #008000;">Cincinnati</span></td> <td><span style="color: #008000;">Locked up a Playoff bid with a second consecutive undefeated regular season, a marquee win over Notre Dame, and enough chaos in the Power 5 leagues. </span></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h4><strong>Big 12:</strong></h4> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Team:</span></td> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Notes:</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Baylor</span></td> <td>On the bubble, probably out.</td> </tr> <tr> <td><del><span style="font-weight: 400; color: #ff0000;">Oklahoma State</span></del></td> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">Eliminated with Big 12 Championship Game loss and weaker resume than Baylor.</span></del></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h4><strong>Big Ten:</strong></h4> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Team:</span></td> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Notes:</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-weight: 400; color: #008000;">Michigan</span></td> <td><span style="color: #008000;">Locked up a Playoff big with a 12-1 season and Big Ten title.</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td><del><span style="font-weight: 400; color: #ff0000;">Ohio State</span></del></td> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">Eliminated with not enough chaos this week.</span></del></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h4>Independents:</h4> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <th>Team:</th> <th>Notes:</th> </tr> <tr> <td>Notre Dame</td> <td>On the bubble, probably out.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h4><strong>Pac 12:</strong></h4> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">Oregon</span></del></td> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">Eliminated with third loss of the season.</span></del></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h4><strong>SEC:</strong></h4> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Team:</span></td> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Notes:</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-weight: 400; color: #008000;">Alabama</span></td> <td><span style="color: #008000;">Locked up a Playoff bid with a 12-1 season and an SEC title.</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Georgia</span></td> <td>On the bubble, probably in.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Conference-USA: </strong>Eliminated</p> <p><strong>MAC: </strong>Eliminated</p> <p><strong>Mountain West:</strong> Eliminated</p> <p><strong>Sun Belt: </strong>Eliminated</p> <h3>Teams Eliminated</h3> <p><strong>Week 14:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Ohio State</td> <td>Eliminated with not enough chaos for a 10-2 resume to make it.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oklahoma State</td> <td>Eliminated with a slightly weaker resume than Baylor.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oregon</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 13:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oklahoma</td> <td>Eliminated following loss in Bedlam and being locked out of Big 12 Championship Game.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Wake Forest</td> <td>Eliminated with no path to the Playoff remaining, since the Demon Deacons can’t pass Notre Dame or the Big 12 champion (or even Ohio State, most likely).</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 12:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Michigan State</td> <td>Eliminated with a blowout loss to Ohio State, only one top-quality win, and no path to the Big Ten title.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Ole Miss</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses, no path to SEC title, and only one top-quality win.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>UTSA</td> <td>Still undefeated, but UTSA never had the schedule to really have a chance. Nor did the Roadrunners dominate a weak schedule in the way a Playoff team would be expected to.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 11:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Auburn</td> <td>Eliminated with fourth loss.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Texas A&M</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 10:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>N.C. State</td> <td>Eliminated with two mediocre losses and no real opportunity for more than one ranked win.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 9:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Iowa</td> <td>Eliminated with second loss and not enough quality win potential, including Penn State and Iowa State wins getting weaker</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Iowa State</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kentucky</td> <td>Eliminated with second loss and no quality wins</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penn State</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Pittsburgh</td> <td>Eliminated with second bad loss and not enough quality win potential</td> </tr> <tr> <td>San Diego State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Fresno State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>SMU</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Houston</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Virginia</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 8:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Clemson</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Coastal Carolina</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Appalachian State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Purdue</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 7:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Arizona State</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and not enough quality win potential in the Pac 12</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Arkansas</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Boston College</td> <td>Eliminated with second loss and not enough quality win potential</td> </tr> <tr> <td>BYU</td> <td>Eliminated with second loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Florida</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kansas State</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Mississippi State</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>TCU</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Tennessee</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Texas</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 6:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Louisville</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>LSU</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Maryland</td> <td>Eliminated with two huge blowout losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oregon State</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and not enough quality win potential in the Pac 12</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Rutgers</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Stanford</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Syracuse</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Texas Tech</td> <td>Eliminated with second blowout loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>USC</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Virginia Tech</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and not enough quality win potential</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Wyoming</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Air Force</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 5:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Army</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Ball State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Duke</td> <td>Eliminated with two bad losses and not enough quality win opportunities</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Georgia Tech</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Indiana</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Missouri</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Northwestern</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>South Alabama</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Louisiana</td> </tr> <tr> <td>UCLA</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses, a weak Pac 12, and nonconference opponents getting weaker</td> </tr> <tr> <td>West Virginia</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Wisconsin</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 4:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Liberty</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to UTSA</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Memphis</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Syracuse</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Minnesota</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses, including embarrassing nonconference loss to Bowling Green</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Nebraska</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>North Carolina</td> <td>Eliminated with blowout loss and only one major quality win opportunities remaining.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>South Carolina</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and not enough chances for quality wins. Clemson’s second loss means not enough quality OOC to overcome two losses.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Utah State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Boise State</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 3:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Air Force</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Utah State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>California</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and a weak Pac 12</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Charlotte</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Georgia State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Colorado</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and a weak Pac 12</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kansas</td> <td>Eliminated with second blowout loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Marshall</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to ECU</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Miami (Fl)</td> <td>Eliminated with second blowout loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Nevada</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Kansas State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>New Mexico</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Texas A&M</td> </tr> <tr> <td>UCF</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Louisville</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Utah</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and a weak Pac 12</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Washington State</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and a weak Pac 12</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 2:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Appalachian State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Miami (Fl)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Arizona</td> <td>Eliminated with blowout loss to San Diego State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Arkansas State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Memphis</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Ball State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Penn State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Buffalo</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Nebraska</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Eastern Michigan</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Wisconsin</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Florida International</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Texas State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Florida State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to FCS Jacksonville State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Georgia Southern</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Florida Atlantic</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Illinois</td> <td>Eliminated with blowout loss to Virginia, combined with loss to UTSA</td> </tr> <tr> <td>MTSU</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Virginia Tech</td> </tr> <tr> <td>North Texas</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to SMU</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Northern Illinois</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Wyoming</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Toledo</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Notre Dame</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Troy</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Liberty</td> </tr> <tr> <td>UAB</td> <td>Eliminated with ugly loss to Georgia</td> </tr> <tr> <td>UTEP</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Boise State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Western Kentucky</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Army</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 1:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Akron</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Auburn</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Boise State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to South Florida</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Bowling Green</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Tennessee</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Central Michigan</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Missouri</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Colorado State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to South Dakota State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>East Carolina</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Appalachian State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Florida Atlantic</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Florida</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Fresno State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Oregon</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Georgia State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Army</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Hawaii</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to UCLA</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Houston</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Texas Tech</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kent State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Texas A&M</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Louisiana</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Texas</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Louisiana-Monroe</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Kentucky</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Louisiana Tech</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Mississippi State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Miami (Oh)</td> <td>Eliminated with ugly loss to Cincinnati</td> </tr> <tr> <td>New Mexico State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to UTEP</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Navy</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Marshall</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Ohio</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Syracuse</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Old Dominion</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Wake Forest</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Rice</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Arkansas</td> </tr> <tr> <td>San Jose State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to USC</td> </tr> <tr> <td>South Florida</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to N.C. State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Southern Mississippi</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to South Alabama</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Temple</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Rutgers</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Texas State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Baylor</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Tulane</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Oklahoma</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Tulsa</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to UC Davis</td> </tr> <tr> <td>UConn</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Fresno State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>UMass</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Pitt</td> </tr> <tr> <td>UNLV</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Eastern Washington</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Vanderbilt</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to FCS East Tennessee State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Washington</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to FCS Montana, plus a weakened Pac 12 North</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Western Michigan</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Michigan</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Make sure you follow the All Sports Discussion Twitter account at <a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fallsportsdacc&sa=D&sntz=1&usg=AFQjCNH80neHSsrNqatIx7rdXWPR9U0_VA" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.google.com/url?q%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Ftwitter.com%252Fallsportsdacc%26sa%3DD%26sntz%3D1%26usg%3DAFQjCNH80neHSsrNqatIx7rdXWPR9U0_VA&source=gmail&ust=1486166502870000&usg=AFQjCNGgOzqUxiig-tlkIjyFOnLEhGtpRQ">@AllSportsDACC</a> and please like our <a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fpages%2FAll-Sports-Discussion%2F184935911533629%3Ffref%3Dts&sa=D&sntz=1&usg=AFQjCNEWEAihdwfmDazuSSnX5l4sK20orQ" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.google.com/url?q%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.facebook.com%252Fpages%252FAll-Sports-Discussion%252F184935911533629%253Ffref%253Dts%26sa%3DD%26sntz%3D1%26usg%3DAFQjCNEWEAihdwfmDazuSSnX5l4sK20orQ&source=gmail&ust=1486166502870000&usg=AFQjCNGr19chQ7IW8VRHn1DFxQH94mz21A">Facebook Page</a></strong></p> <br> <center> <script async src="//pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js"></script> <!-- Bottom_Post --> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:inline-block;width:468px;height:60px" data-ad-client="ca-pub-1227879969298088" data-ad-slot="1445137322"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <br> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js"></script> <!-- Horizontal_6 --> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:inline-block;width:468px;height:60px" data-ad-client="ca-pub-1227879969298088" data-ad-slot="4619304738"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> </center>]]></content:encoded> <wfw:commentRss>https://allsportsdiscussion.com/2021/12/05/selection-sunday-cfp-eliminator-three-team-bubble-but-one-stands-out/feed/</wfw:commentRss> <slash:comments>0</slash:comments> <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">33586</post-id> </item> <item> <title>Week 13 CFP Eliminator: Why Nine are Still Alive</title> <link>https://allsportsdiscussion.com/2021/11/28/week-13-cfp-eliminator-why-nine-are-still-alive/</link> <comments>https://allsportsdiscussion.com/2021/11/28/week-13-cfp-eliminator-why-nine-are-still-alive/#respond</comments> <dc:creator><![CDATA[Yesh Ginsburg]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Sun, 28 Nov 2021 21:16:46 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[College Football]]></category> <category><![CDATA[ACC]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Alabama Crimson Tide]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Baylor Bears]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Big Ten]]></category> <category><![CDATA[CFP Eliminator]]></category> <category><![CDATA[CFP Implications]]></category> <category><![CDATA[CFP selection committee]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Cincinnati Bearcats]]></category> <category><![CDATA[College Football Playoff]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Georgia Bulldogs]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Michigan Wolverines]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Notre Dame Fighting Irish]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Ohio State Buckeyes]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Oklahoma State Sooners]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Oregon Ducks]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Pac 12]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Wake Forest Demon Deacons]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">http://allsportsdiscussion.com/?p=33536</guid> <description><![CDATA[With one week left in the season, we still have nine teams left in Playoff contention. Does that number sound high to you? It shouldn’t. Let’s explain why. First of all, let’s look at the teams: Georgia, Cincinnati, Michigan, Alabama, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, Ohio State, Baylor, and Oregon. Do you think Ohio State and … </p><p><a class="more-link block-button" href="https://allsportsdiscussion.com/2021/11/28/week-13-cfp-eliminator-why-nine-are-still-alive/">Continue reading »</a>]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>With one week left in the season, we still have nine teams left in Playoff contention. Does that number sound high to you? It shouldn’t. Let’s explain why. First of all, let’s look at the teams: Georgia, Cincinnati, Michigan, Alabama, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, Ohio State, Baylor, and Oregon. Do you think Ohio State and Oregon don’t have a chance? Well, I’ll explain why I can’t eliminate them in the best way possible–presenting a scenario.</p> <p>Let’s say the following results happen this week. Who would you put in?<br /> 1. Georgia beats Alabama convincingly (let’s say by two touchdowns or more).<br /> 2. Cincinnati loses to Houston.<br /> 3. Baylor beats Oklahoma State.</p> <p>Georgia is a lock in this case. Michigan is in. Notre Dame looks solid. Who’s the fourth? Is it Ohio State, who the advanced stats and metrics prefer? Is it Baylor, who has a better top-end resume but a terrible loss and minimal meat? Is it Oregon, who trails in every metric but owns that head-to-head win over Ohio State? Does Alabama back in, getting an immediate rematch with a Georgia team that just beat it handily? And what if, on top of all this, Michigan loses (convincingly) to Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game? Now we need to find a second team (and no, it won’t be Iowa–Michigan would be the only ranked win on the season for the Hawkeyes, and they have two non-competitive losses). Does Michigan back in anyway? Does this open the door more for Baylor and Oregon?</p> <p>The answer to all of those questions is, quite honestly, “Maybe.” And if, with one week remaining, I can say “maybe” to a scenario for a team making the Playoff, then they’re not eliminated. It’s that simple.</p> <p>Georgia is in with a win. Alabama is in with a win. Michigan is in with a win. Cincinnati is almost definitely in with a win. Oklahoma State is in with a win and an Alabama loss. If those things don’t happen, though–we have Notre Dame, Ohio State, Baylor, and Oregon rooting for team chaos.</p> <h3>How the CFP Eliminator works</h3> <p>The goal is simple: We are going to count down every single FBS team that remains in contention for a College Football Playoff bid. We start with all of the FBS teams, and they get eliminated one by one until only a few remain.</p> <p>If the Playoff teams are obvious, we will only have four remaining Selection Sunday morning, like 2019. If, like 2018, there is a serious bubble with multiple teams with strong claims for the fourth spot, then we might have five (or, in 2014 and 2018, six) still alive on Selection Sunday.</p> <p>In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams on this <a href="https://twitter.com/yesh222/status/1431358656004730883" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Twitter thread</a>. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.</p> <p>I also need to add two notes about the process.</p> <p><strong>1. The premise:</strong> My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only: if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to assume a future loss.</p> <p>Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in modern college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are.</p> <p>Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.</p> <p><strong>2. Group of 5 teams:</strong> My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory––crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance.</p> <h3>Week 12: Teams Remaining</h3> <p>We began this week with 11 teams. In Week 13, we eliminated two teams. Therefore, nine teams currently remain in College Football Playoff contention.</p> <h4><strong>ACC:</strong></h4> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <th>Team:</th> <th>Notes:</th> </tr> <tr> <td>Notre Dame</td> <td>Needs a bit of chaos this week, but possibly in solid position if we get some.</td> </tr> <tr> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">Wake Forest</span></del></td> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">Eliminated with no path remaining to jump the Big 12 champion and Notre Dame.</span></del></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h4><strong>Big 12:</strong></h4> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Team:</span></td> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Notes:</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Baylor</span></td> <td>Needs to win the Big 12 Championship Game and get maximum chaos.</td> </tr> <tr> <td><del><span style="font-weight: 400; color: #ff0000;">Oklahoma</span></del></td> <td><del><span style="font-weight: 400; color: #ff0000;">Eliminated with loss in Bedlam.</span></del></td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Oklahoma State</span></td> <td>Likely in with a win in the Big 12 Championship Game, as long as Alabama doesn’t beat Georgia.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h4><strong>Big Ten:</strong></h4> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Team:</span></td> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Notes:</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Michigan</span></td> <td>A Playoff lock with a win in the Big Ten Championship Game, likely out with a loss.</td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Ohio State</span></td> <td>Ohio State needs chaos this week, but probably wants Michigan to win the Big Ten Championship Game (and to do so impressively).</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h4><strong>Pac 12:</strong></h4> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oregon</td> <td>Needs maximum chaos and to be very impressive in avenging the loss to Utah to even be considered.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h4><strong>SEC:</strong></h4> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Team:</span></td> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Notes:</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Alabama</span></td> <td>Alabama is a Playoff lock if it beats Georgia.</td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Georgia</span></td> <td>Undefeated so far. Likely a lock unless Alabama wins the SEC Championship Game convincingly, though the resume is somewhat weak.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Independents:</strong> Notre Dame</p> <p><strong>AAC:</strong> Cincinnati</p> <p><strong>Conference-USA: </strong>Eliminated</p> <p><strong>MAC: </strong>Eliminated</p> <p><strong>Mountain West:</strong> Eliminated</p> <p><strong>Sun Belt: </strong>Eliminated</p> <h3>Teams Eliminated</h3> <p><strong>Week 13:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oklahoma</td> <td>Eliminated following loss in Bedlam and being locked out of Big 12 Championship Game.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Wake Forest</td> <td>Eliminated with no path to the Playoff remaining, since the Demon Deacons can’t pass Notre Dame or the Big 12 champion (or even Ohio State, most likely).</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 12:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Michigan State</td> <td>Eliminated with a blowout loss to Ohio State, only one top-quality win, and no path to the Big Ten title.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Ole Miss</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses, no path to SEC title, and only one top-quality win.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>UTSA</td> <td>Still undefeated, but UTSA never had the schedule to really have a chance. Nor did the Roadrunners dominate a weak schedule in the way a Playoff team would be expected to.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 11:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Auburn</td> <td>Eliminated with fourth loss.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Texas A&M</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 10:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>N.C. State</td> <td>Eliminated with two mediocre losses and no real opportunity for more than one ranked win.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 9:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Iowa</td> <td>Eliminated with second loss and not enough quality win potential, including Penn State and Iowa State wins getting weaker</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Iowa State</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kentucky</td> <td>Eliminated with second loss and no quality wins</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penn State</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Pittsburgh</td> <td>Eliminated with second bad loss and not enough quality win potential</td> </tr> <tr> <td>San Diego State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Fresno State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>SMU</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Houston</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Virginia</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 8:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Clemson</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Coastal Carolina</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Appalachian State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Purdue</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 7:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Arizona State</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and not enough quality win potential in the Pac 12</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Arkansas</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Boston College</td> <td>Eliminated with second loss and not enough quality win potential</td> </tr> <tr> <td>BYU</td> <td>Eliminated with second loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Florida</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kansas State</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Mississippi State</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>TCU</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Tennessee</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Texas</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 6:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Louisville</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>LSU</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Maryland</td> <td>Eliminated with two huge blowout losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oregon State</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and not enough quality win potential in the Pac 12</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Rutgers</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Stanford</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Syracuse</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Texas Tech</td> <td>Eliminated with second blowout loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>USC</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Virginia Tech</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and not enough quality win potential</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Wyoming</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Air Force</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 5:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Army</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Ball State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Duke</td> <td>Eliminated with two bad losses and not enough quality win opportunities</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Georgia Tech</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Indiana</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Missouri</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Northwestern</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>South Alabama</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Louisiana</td> </tr> <tr> <td>UCLA</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses, a weak Pac 12, and nonconference opponents getting weaker</td> </tr> <tr> <td>West Virginia</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Wisconsin</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 4:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Liberty</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to UTSA</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Memphis</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Syracuse</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Minnesota</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses, including embarrassing nonconference loss to Bowling Green</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Nebraska</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>North Carolina</td> <td>Eliminated with blowout loss and only one major quality win opportunities remaining.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>South Carolina</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and not enough chances for quality wins. Clemson’s second loss means not enough quality OOC to overcome two losses.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Utah State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Boise State</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 3:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Air Force</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Utah State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>California</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and a weak Pac 12</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Charlotte</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Georgia State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Colorado</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and a weak Pac 12</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kansas</td> <td>Eliminated with second blowout loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Marshall</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to ECU</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Miami (Fl)</td> <td>Eliminated with second blowout loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Nevada</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Kansas State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>New Mexico</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Texas A&M</td> </tr> <tr> <td>UCF</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Louisville</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Utah</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and a weak Pac 12</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Washington State</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and a weak Pac 12</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 2:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Appalachian State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Miami (Fl)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Arizona</td> <td>Eliminated with blowout loss to San Diego State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Arkansas State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Memphis</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Ball State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Penn State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Buffalo</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Nebraska</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Eastern Michigan</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Wisconsin</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Florida International</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Texas State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Florida State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to FCS Jacksonville State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Georgia Southern</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Florida Atlantic</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Illinois</td> <td>Eliminated with blowout loss to Virginia, combined with loss to UTSA</td> </tr> <tr> <td>MTSU</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Virginia Tech</td> </tr> <tr> <td>North Texas</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to SMU</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Northern Illinois</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Wyoming</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Toledo</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Notre Dame</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Troy</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Liberty</td> </tr> <tr> <td>UAB</td> <td>Eliminated with ugly loss to Georgia</td> </tr> <tr> <td>UTEP</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Boise State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Western Kentucky</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Army</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 1:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Akron</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Auburn</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Boise State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to South Florida</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Bowling Green</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Tennessee</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Central Michigan</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Missouri</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Colorado State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to South Dakota State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>East Carolina</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Appalachian State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Florida Atlantic</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Florida</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Fresno State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Oregon</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Georgia State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Army</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Hawaii</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to UCLA</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Houston</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Texas Tech</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kent State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Texas A&M</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Louisiana</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Texas</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Louisiana-Monroe</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Kentucky</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Louisiana Tech</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Mississippi State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Miami (Oh)</td> <td>Eliminated with ugly loss to Cincinnati</td> </tr> <tr> <td>New Mexico State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to UTEP</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Navy</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Marshall</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Ohio</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Syracuse</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Old Dominion</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Wake Forest</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Rice</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Arkansas</td> </tr> <tr> <td>San Jose State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to USC</td> </tr> <tr> <td>South Florida</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to N.C. State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Southern Mississippi</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to South Alabama</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Temple</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Rutgers</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Texas State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Baylor</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Tulane</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Oklahoma</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Tulsa</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to UC Davis</td> </tr> <tr> <td>UConn</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Fresno State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>UMass</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Pitt</td> </tr> <tr> <td>UNLV</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Eastern Washington</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Vanderbilt</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to FCS East Tennessee State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Washington</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to FCS Montana, plus a weakened Pac 12 North</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Western Michigan</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Michigan</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Make sure you follow the All Sports Discussion Twitter account at <a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fallsportsdacc&sa=D&sntz=1&usg=AFQjCNH80neHSsrNqatIx7rdXWPR9U0_VA" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.google.com/url?q%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Ftwitter.com%252Fallsportsdacc%26sa%3DD%26sntz%3D1%26usg%3DAFQjCNH80neHSsrNqatIx7rdXWPR9U0_VA&source=gmail&ust=1486166502870000&usg=AFQjCNGgOzqUxiig-tlkIjyFOnLEhGtpRQ">@AllSportsDACC</a> and please like our <a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fpages%2FAll-Sports-Discussion%2F184935911533629%3Ffref%3Dts&sa=D&sntz=1&usg=AFQjCNEWEAihdwfmDazuSSnX5l4sK20orQ" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.google.com/url?q%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.facebook.com%252Fpages%252FAll-Sports-Discussion%252F184935911533629%253Ffref%253Dts%26sa%3DD%26sntz%3D1%26usg%3DAFQjCNEWEAihdwfmDazuSSnX5l4sK20orQ&source=gmail&ust=1486166502870000&usg=AFQjCNGr19chQ7IW8VRHn1DFxQH94mz21A">Facebook Page</a></strong></p> <br> <center> <script async src="//pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js"></script> <!-- Bottom_Post --> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:inline-block;width:468px;height:60px" data-ad-client="ca-pub-1227879969298088" data-ad-slot="1445137322"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <br> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js"></script> <!-- Horizontal_6 --> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:inline-block;width:468px;height:60px" data-ad-client="ca-pub-1227879969298088" data-ad-slot="4619304738"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> </center>]]></content:encoded> <wfw:commentRss>https://allsportsdiscussion.com/2021/11/28/week-13-cfp-eliminator-why-nine-are-still-alive/feed/</wfw:commentRss> <slash:comments>0</slash:comments> <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">33536</post-id> </item> <item> <title>Week 12 CFP Eliminator: Chaos is Upon Us</title> <link>https://allsportsdiscussion.com/2021/11/22/week-12-cfp-eliminator-chaos-is-upon-us/</link> <comments>https://allsportsdiscussion.com/2021/11/22/week-12-cfp-eliminator-chaos-is-upon-us/#respond</comments> <dc:creator><![CDATA[Yesh Ginsburg]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Mon, 22 Nov 2021 13:00:40 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[College Football]]></category> <category><![CDATA[ACC]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Alabama Crimson Tide]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Big Ten]]></category> <category><![CDATA[CFP Eliminator]]></category> <category><![CDATA[CFP Implications]]></category> <category><![CDATA[CFP selection committee]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Cincinnati Bearcats]]></category> <category><![CDATA[College Football Playoff]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Georgia Bulldogs]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Notre Dame Fighting Irish]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Ohio State Buckeyes]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Oregon Ducks]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Pac 12]]></category> <category><![CDATA[UTSA Roadrunners]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Wake Forest Demon Deacons]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">http://allsportsdiscussion.com/?p=33491</guid> <description><![CDATA[This has, quite frankly, been the most chaotic season in the CFP’s eight-year history. Perhaps we should have expected it. After all, so many teams are more experienced, given the extra year of eligibility due to COVID. Even so, this year has been wild. Part of the wildness, however, has been the strength at the … </p><p><a class="more-link block-button" href="https://allsportsdiscussion.com/2021/11/22/week-12-cfp-eliminator-chaos-is-upon-us/">Continue reading »</a>]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This has, quite frankly, been the most chaotic season in the CFP’s eight-year history. Perhaps we should have expected it. After all, so many teams are more experienced, given the extra year of eligibility due to COVID. Even so, this year has been wild.</p> <p>Part of the wildness, however, has been the strength at the top. We noted early on <a href="http://allsportsdiscussion.com/2021/11/07/week-10-cfp-eliminator-contenders-far-ahead-of-the-field/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">that some contenders were pulling away</a>. As such, and with the parity behind those contenders, we’ve been at basically a dozen or so true contenders for a few weeks now. Because of their lead on the field, we haven’t been able to eliminate teams that have fallen off.</p> <p>For example, even with a loss to Clemson this week (their second in three weeks), I haven’t been able to eliminate the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. Why not? Well, we’re guaranteed two-loss champions from both the ACC and the Pac 12. The Big Ten, at maximum, will have one team with fewer than two losses. If Georgia beats Alabama–and does so convincingly–there’s only one team with a real bid opportunity from the SEC. Cincinnati could lose a game; Notre Dame could lose its final one. And with so much chaos already, no one is sneaking up on teams from behind.</p> <p>Would an 11-2 Wake Forest team look in solid Playoff shape as of now? No. But there’s so little that needs to happen to keep the Demon Deacons in it. So I can’t eliminate them. (The same is true of Oregon and Baylor.) Pitt is eliminated, though. I eliminated the Panthers weeks ago, and I stand by it. Losses to good teams can be overcome as more teams lose. But that loss to Western Michigan is an anchor around the Panthers. You just can’t lose to a mediocre MAC team and make the Playoff. I think the committee would take 10-2 Notre Dame (or even 12-1 Cincinnati) over 11-2 Pitt. So the Panthers really have no path.</p> <h3>How the CFP Eliminator works</h3> <p>The goal is simple: We are going to count down every single FBS team that remains in contention for a College Football Playoff bid. We start with all of the FBS teams, and they get eliminated one by one until only a few remain.</p> <p>If the Playoff teams are obvious, we will only have four remaining Selection Sunday morning, like 2019. If, like 2018, there is a serious bubble with multiple teams with strong claims for the fourth spot, then we might have five (or, in 2014 and 2018, six) still alive on Selection Sunday.</p> <p>In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams on this <a href="https://twitter.com/yesh222/status/1431358656004730883" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Twitter thread</a>. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.</p> <p>I also need to add two notes about the process.</p> <p><strong>1. The premise:</strong> My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only: if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to assume a future loss.</p> <p>Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in modern college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are.</p> <p>Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.</p> <p><strong>2. Group of 5 teams:</strong> My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory––crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance.</p> <h3>Week 12: Teams Remaining</h3> <p>We began this week with 14 teams. In Week 12, we eliminated three teams. Therefore, 11 teams currently remain in College Football Playoff contention.</p> <p>I include Notre Dame in the ACC in this roundup for simplicity.</p> <h4><strong>ACC:</strong></h4> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <th>Team:</th> <th>Notes:</th> </tr> <tr> <td>Notre Dame</td> <td>Schedule pretty weak, but chaos has helped. Still needs more chaos, though.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Wake Forest</td> <td>Needs to win out and get a ton of chaos to get in.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h4><strong>Big 12:</strong></h4> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Team:</span></td> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Notes:</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Baylor</span></td> <td>Needs to win out and get some chaos. Also needs Oklahoma State to win Bedlam.</td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Oklahoma</span></td> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Likely needs to win out.</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Oklahoma State</span></td> <td>Likely needs to win out.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h4><strong>Big Ten:</strong></h4> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Team:</span></td> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Notes:</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Michigan</span></td> <td>A Playoff lock at 12-1, but almost certainly eliminated with a loss to Ohio State.</td> </tr> <tr> <td><del><span style="font-weight: 400; color: #ff0000;">Michigan State</span></del></td> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">Eliminated with a blowout loss to Ohio State.</span></del></td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Ohio State</span></td> <td>Ohio State is now a lock if it runs the table.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h4><strong>Pac 12:</strong></h4> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oregon</td> <td>Needs a ton of chaos. Likely needs Ohio State to beat Michigan but then lose in the Big Ten Championship Game to even have a chance.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h4><strong>SEC:</strong></h4> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Team:</span></td> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Notes:</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Alabama</span></td> <td>Alabama is a Playoff lock if it wins out.</td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Georgia</span></td> <td>Undefeated so far. Certainly in even with a loss, likely in with two.</td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Mississippi</span></td> <td>Eliminated with two losses, no chance at an SEC title, and only one actual quality win.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Independents:</strong> Notre Dame</p> <p><strong>AAC:</strong> Cincinnati</p> <p><strong>Conference-USA: </strong>Eliminated</p> <p><strong>MAC: </strong>Eliminated</p> <p><strong>Mountain West:</strong> Eliminated</p> <p><strong>Sun Belt: </strong>Eliminated</p> <h3>Teams Eliminated</h3> <p><strong>Week 12:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Michigan State</td> <td>Eliminated with a blowout loss to Ohio State, only one top-quality win, and no path to the Big Ten title.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Ole Miss</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses, no path to SEC title, and only one top-quality win.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>UTSA</td> <td>Still undefeated, but UTSA never had the schedule to really have a chance. Nor did the Roadrunners dominate a weak schedule in the way a Playoff team would be expected to.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 11:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Auburn</td> <td>Eliminated with fourth loss.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Texas A&M</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 10:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>N.C. State</td> <td>Eliminated with two mediocre losses and no real opportunity for more than one ranked win.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 9:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Iowa</td> <td>Eliminated with second loss and not enough quality win potential, including Penn State and Iowa State wins getting weaker</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Iowa State</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kentucky</td> <td>Eliminated with second loss and no quality wins</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penn State</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Pittsburgh</td> <td>Eliminated with second bad loss and not enough quality win potential</td> </tr> <tr> <td>San Diego State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Fresno State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>SMU</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Houston</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Virginia</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 8:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Clemson</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Coastal Carolina</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Appalachian State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Purdue</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 7:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Arizona State</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and not enough quality win potential in the Pac 12</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Arkansas</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Boston College</td> <td>Eliminated with second loss and not enough quality win potential</td> </tr> <tr> <td>BYU</td> <td>Eliminated with second loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Florida</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kansas State</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Mississippi State</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>TCU</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Tennessee</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Texas</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 6:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Louisville</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>LSU</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Maryland</td> <td>Eliminated with two huge blowout losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oregon State</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and not enough quality win potential in the Pac 12</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Rutgers</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Stanford</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Syracuse</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Texas Tech</td> <td>Eliminated with second blowout loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>USC</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Virginia Tech</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and not enough quality win potential</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Wyoming</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Air Force</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 5:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Army</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Ball State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Duke</td> <td>Eliminated with two bad losses and not enough quality win opportunities</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Georgia Tech</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Indiana</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Missouri</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Northwestern</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>South Alabama</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Louisiana</td> </tr> <tr> <td>UCLA</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses, a weak Pac 12, and nonconference opponents getting weaker</td> </tr> <tr> <td>West Virginia</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Wisconsin</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 4:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Liberty</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to UTSA</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Memphis</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Syracuse</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Minnesota</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses, including embarrassing nonconference loss to Bowling Green</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Nebraska</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>North Carolina</td> <td>Eliminated with blowout loss and only one major quality win opportunities remaining.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>South Carolina</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and not enough chances for quality wins. Clemson’s second loss means not enough quality OOC to overcome two losses.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Utah State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Boise State</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 3:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Air Force</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Utah State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>California</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and a weak Pac 12</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Charlotte</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Georgia State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Colorado</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and a weak Pac 12</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kansas</td> <td>Eliminated with second blowout loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Marshall</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to ECU</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Miami (Fl)</td> <td>Eliminated with second blowout loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Nevada</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Kansas State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>New Mexico</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Texas A&M</td> </tr> <tr> <td>UCF</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Louisville</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Utah</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and a weak Pac 12</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Washington State</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and a weak Pac 12</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 2:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Appalachian State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Miami (Fl)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Arizona</td> <td>Eliminated with blowout loss to San Diego State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Arkansas State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Memphis</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Ball State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Penn State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Buffalo</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Nebraska</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Eastern Michigan</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Wisconsin</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Florida International</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Texas State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Florida State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to FCS Jacksonville State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Georgia Southern</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Florida Atlantic</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Illinois</td> <td>Eliminated with blowout loss to Virginia, combined with loss to UTSA</td> </tr> <tr> <td>MTSU</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Virginia Tech</td> </tr> <tr> <td>North Texas</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to SMU</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Northern Illinois</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Wyoming</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Toledo</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Notre Dame</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Troy</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Liberty</td> </tr> <tr> <td>UAB</td> <td>Eliminated with ugly loss to Georgia</td> </tr> <tr> <td>UTEP</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Boise State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Western Kentucky</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Army</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 1:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Akron</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Auburn</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Boise State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to South Florida</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Bowling Green</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Tennessee</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Central Michigan</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Missouri</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Colorado State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to South Dakota State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>East Carolina</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Appalachian State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Florida Atlantic</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Florida</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Fresno State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Oregon</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Georgia State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Army</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Hawaii</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to UCLA</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Houston</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Texas Tech</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kent State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Texas A&M</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Louisiana</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Texas</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Louisiana-Monroe</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Kentucky</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Louisiana Tech</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Mississippi State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Miami (Oh)</td> <td>Eliminated with ugly loss to Cincinnati</td> </tr> <tr> <td>New Mexico State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to UTEP</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Navy</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Marshall</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Ohio</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Syracuse</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Old Dominion</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Wake Forest</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Rice</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Arkansas</td> </tr> <tr> <td>San Jose State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to USC</td> </tr> <tr> <td>South Florida</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to N.C. State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Southern Mississippi</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to South Alabama</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Temple</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Rutgers</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Texas State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Baylor</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Tulane</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Oklahoma</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Tulsa</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to UC Davis</td> </tr> <tr> <td>UConn</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Fresno State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>UMass</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Pitt</td> </tr> <tr> <td>UNLV</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Eastern Washington</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Vanderbilt</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to FCS East Tennessee State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Washington</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to FCS Montana, plus a weakened Pac 12 North</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Western Michigan</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Michigan</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Make sure you follow the All Sports Discussion Twitter account at <a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fallsportsdacc&sa=D&sntz=1&usg=AFQjCNH80neHSsrNqatIx7rdXWPR9U0_VA" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.google.com/url?q%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Ftwitter.com%252Fallsportsdacc%26sa%3DD%26sntz%3D1%26usg%3DAFQjCNH80neHSsrNqatIx7rdXWPR9U0_VA&source=gmail&ust=1486166502870000&usg=AFQjCNGgOzqUxiig-tlkIjyFOnLEhGtpRQ">@AllSportsDACC</a> and please like our <a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fpages%2FAll-Sports-Discussion%2F184935911533629%3Ffref%3Dts&sa=D&sntz=1&usg=AFQjCNEWEAihdwfmDazuSSnX5l4sK20orQ" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.google.com/url?q%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.facebook.com%252Fpages%252FAll-Sports-Discussion%252F184935911533629%253Ffref%253Dts%26sa%3DD%26sntz%3D1%26usg%3DAFQjCNEWEAihdwfmDazuSSnX5l4sK20orQ&source=gmail&ust=1486166502870000&usg=AFQjCNGr19chQ7IW8VRHn1DFxQH94mz21A">Facebook Page</a></strong></p> <br> <center> <script async src="//pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js"></script> <!-- Bottom_Post --> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:inline-block;width:468px;height:60px" data-ad-client="ca-pub-1227879969298088" data-ad-slot="1445137322"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <br> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js"></script> <!-- Horizontal_6 --> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:inline-block;width:468px;height:60px" data-ad-client="ca-pub-1227879969298088" data-ad-slot="4619304738"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> </center>]]></content:encoded> <wfw:commentRss>https://allsportsdiscussion.com/2021/11/22/week-12-cfp-eliminator-chaos-is-upon-us/feed/</wfw:commentRss> <slash:comments>0</slash:comments> <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">33491</post-id> </item> <item> <title>Week 11 CFP Eliminator: It’s Finally Time to Talk about Cincinnati</title> <link>https://allsportsdiscussion.com/2021/11/14/week-11-cfp-eliminator-its-finally-time-to-talk-about-cincinnati/</link> <comments>https://allsportsdiscussion.com/2021/11/14/week-11-cfp-eliminator-its-finally-time-to-talk-about-cincinnati/#respond</comments> <dc:creator><![CDATA[Yesh Ginsburg]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Sun, 14 Nov 2021 18:52:55 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[College Football]]></category> <category><![CDATA[ACC]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Auburn Tigers]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Big Ten]]></category> <category><![CDATA[CFP Eliminator]]></category> <category><![CDATA[CFP Implications]]></category> <category><![CDATA[CFP selection committee]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Cincinnati Bearcats]]></category> <category><![CDATA[College Football Playoff]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Notre Dame Fighting Irish]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Ohio State Buckeyes]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Oregon Ducks]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Pac 12]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Texas A&M Aggies]]></category> <category><![CDATA[UTSA Roadrunners]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">http://allsportsdiscussion.com/?p=33451</guid> <description><![CDATA[We’ve been waiting seven years for this, but we are finally ready to discuss a Group of 5 school as a serious Playoff contender. And by “serious contender” I don’t just mean that a team has a chance. By “serious contender,” I mean that the Cincinnati Bearcats have the inside track to one of the … </p><p><a class="more-link block-button" href="https://allsportsdiscussion.com/2021/11/14/week-11-cfp-eliminator-its-finally-time-to-talk-about-cincinnati/">Continue reading »</a>]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://i0.wp.com/allsportsdiscussion.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Wake_Forest-1.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="33456" data-permalink="https://allsportsdiscussion.com/2021/11/14/week-11-cfp-eliminator-its-finally-time-to-talk-about-cincinnati/wake_forest-8/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/allsportsdiscussion.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Wake_Forest-1.png?fit=699%2C493&ssl=1" data-orig-size="699,493" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="Wake_Forest" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/allsportsdiscussion.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Wake_Forest-1.png?fit=300%2C212&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/allsportsdiscussion.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Wake_Forest-1.png?fit=590%2C416&ssl=1" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-33456" src="https://i0.wp.com/allsportsdiscussion.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Wake_Forest-1.png?resize=300%2C212" alt="" width="300" height="212" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/allsportsdiscussion.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Wake_Forest-1.png?resize=300%2C212&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/allsportsdiscussion.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Wake_Forest-1.png?w=699&ssl=1 699w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" data-recalc-dims="1" /></a></p> <p>We’ve been waiting seven years for this, but we are finally ready to discuss a Group of 5 school as a serious Playoff contender. And by “serious contender” I don’t just mean that a team has a chance. By “serious contender,” I mean that the Cincinnati Bearcats have the inside track to one of the four Playoff spots.</p> <p>With Cincinnati’s resume and undefeated record, the Bearcats sit firmly ahead of the leaders of both the ACC and the Big 12. So while, for example, the Eliminator counts three Big 12 teams as still alive, those teams (Baylor, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State) are unlikely to pass Cincinnati if the Bearcats run the table. I would even be pretty confident that Baylor has no chance unless the Bearcats lose, while the two Oklahoma schools would need to win their final three games in blowout fashion (think 2014 Ohio State) to make the jump.</p> <p>With only three weeks of games left (including conference championship games), and with <a href="http://allsportsdiscussion.com/2021/11/07/week-10-cfp-eliminator-contenders-far-ahead-of-the-field/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">so few contenders so far ahead of the field</a>, we can actually start mapping out the scenarios where teams <em>don’t</em> make the Playoff as easily as we can map out the scenarios where they do. The scenario where Cincinnati misses the Playoff is simple: Alabama, Oregon, and Ohio State all win out. Barring that, though, it’s getting difficult to find ways for a 13-0 Cincinnati squad to miss the Playoff. It can happen, certainly––but the Bearcats are in far better position than any Group of 5 team has dreamed of being at this point.</p> <p>Speaking of the Group of 5, I need to mention the UTSA Roadrunners. I have not yet eliminated UTSA, but the Roadrunners are out. They haven’t been dominant enough, their schedule is too weak, and even in this chaos-filled season we’re nowhere near enough for them to sneak in. Win or lose, I will be eliminating UTSA next week. It’s been an impressive ride to last this long, but eventually reality has to catch up.</p> <h3>How the CFP Eliminator works</h3> <p>The goal is simple: We are going to count down every single FBS team that remains in contention for a College Football Playoff bid. We start with all of the FBS teams, and they get eliminated one by one until only a few remain.</p> <p>If the Playoff teams are obvious, we will only have four remaining Selection Sunday morning, like 2019. If, like 2018, there is a serious bubble with multiple teams with strong claims for the fourth spot, then we might have five (or, in 2014 and 2018, six) still alive on Selection Sunday.</p> <p>In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams on this <a href="https://twitter.com/yesh222/status/1431358656004730883" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Twitter thread</a>. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.</p> <p>I also need to add two notes about the process.</p> <p><strong>1. The premise:</strong> My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only: if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to assume a future loss.</p> <p>Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in modern college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are.</p> <p>Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.</p> <p><strong>2. Group of 5 teams:</strong> My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory––crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance.</p> <h3>Week 11: Teams Remaining</h3> <p>We began this week with 16 teams. In Week 11, we eliminated two teams. Therefore, 14 teams currently remain in College Football Playoff contention.</p> <p>I include Notre Dame in the ACC in this roundup for simplicity.</p> <h4><strong>ACC:</strong></h4> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <th>Team:</th> <th>Notes:</th> </tr> <tr> <td>Notre Dame</td> <td>Schedule pretty weak, so no real Playoff path left. Could back in with enough chaos, though.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Wake Forest</td> <td>Tough loss to North Carolina, needs to win out and get a bit of help.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h4><strong>Big 12:</strong></h4> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Team:</span></td> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Notes:</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Baylor</span></td> <td>Needs to win out and get some chaos.</td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Oklahoma</span></td> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Likely needs to win out.</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Oklahoma State</span></td> <td>Likely needs to win out.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h4><strong>Big Ten:</strong></h4> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Team:</span></td> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Notes:</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Michigan</span></td> <td>Needs Michigan State to lose again to get into Big Ten Championship Game. A Playoff lock at 12-1, and might get in at 11-1 if Michigan State wins out.</td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Michigan State</span></td> <td>Tough loss to Purdue, but still a Playoff lock by winning out.</td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Ohio State</span></td> <td>With Oklahoma’s loss, Ohio State is now a lock if it runs the table.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h4><strong>Pac 12:</strong></h4> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oregon</td> <td>Huge quality win over Ohio State, but loss to Stanford means no room for error.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h4><strong>SEC:</strong></h4> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Team:</span></td> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Notes:</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Alabama</span></td> <td>Loss to Texas A&M means Alabama doesn’t control its destiny, but likely still win if it wins out.</td> </tr> <tr> <td><del><span style="font-weight: 400; color: #ff0000;">Auburn</span></del></td> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">Eliminated with fourth loss.</span></del></td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Georgia</span></td> <td>Undefeated so far. Certainly in even with a loss, likely in with two.</td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-weight: 400;">Mississippi</span></td> <td>Needs a decent amount of chaos to remain in contention.</td> </tr> <tr> <td><del><span style="font-weight: 400; color: #ff0000;">Texas A&M</span></del></td> <td><del><span style="color: #ff0000;">Eliminated with third loss.</span></del></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Independents:</strong> Notre Dame</p> <p><strong>AAC:</strong> Cincinnati</p> <p><strong>Conference-USA: </strong>UTSA</p> <p><strong>MAC: </strong>Eliminated</p> <p><strong>Mountain West:</strong> Eliminated</p> <p><strong>Sun Belt: </strong>Eliminated</p> <h3>Teams Eliminated</h3> <p><strong>Week 11:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Auburn</td> <td>Eliminated with fourth loss.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Texas A&M</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 10:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>N.C. State</td> <td>Eliminated with two mediocre losses and no real opportunity for more than one ranked win.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 9:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Iowa</td> <td>Eliminated with second loss and not enough quality win potential, including Penn State and Iowa State wins getting weaker</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Iowa State</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kentucky</td> <td>Eliminated with second loss and no quality wins</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penn State</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Pittsburgh</td> <td>Eliminated with second bad loss and not enough quality win potential</td> </tr> <tr> <td>San Diego State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Fresno State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>SMU</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Houston</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Virginia</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 8:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Clemson</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Coastal Carolina</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Appalachian State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Purdue</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 7:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Arizona State</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and not enough quality win potential in the Pac 12</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Arkansas</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Boston College</td> <td>Eliminated with second loss and not enough quality win potential</td> </tr> <tr> <td>BYU</td> <td>Eliminated with second loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Florida</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kansas State</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Mississippi State</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>TCU</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Tennessee</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Texas</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 6:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Louisville</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>LSU</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Maryland</td> <td>Eliminated with two huge blowout losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oregon State</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and not enough quality win potential in the Pac 12</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Rutgers</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Stanford</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Syracuse</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Texas Tech</td> <td>Eliminated with second blowout loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>USC</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Virginia Tech</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and not enough quality win potential</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Wyoming</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Air Force</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 5:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Army</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Ball State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Duke</td> <td>Eliminated with two bad losses and not enough quality win opportunities</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Georgia Tech</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Indiana</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Missouri</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Northwestern</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>South Alabama</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Louisiana</td> </tr> <tr> <td>UCLA</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses, a weak Pac 12, and nonconference opponents getting weaker</td> </tr> <tr> <td>West Virginia</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Wisconsin</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 4:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Liberty</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to UTSA</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Memphis</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Syracuse</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Minnesota</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses, including embarrassing nonconference loss to Bowling Green</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Nebraska</td> <td>Eliminated with third loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>North Carolina</td> <td>Eliminated with blowout loss and only one major quality win opportunities remaining.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>South Carolina</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and not enough chances for quality wins. Clemson’s second loss means not enough quality OOC to overcome two losses.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Utah State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Boise State</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 3:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Air Force</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Utah State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>California</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and a weak Pac 12</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Charlotte</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Georgia State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Colorado</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and a weak Pac 12</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kansas</td> <td>Eliminated with second blowout loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Marshall</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to ECU</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Miami (Fl)</td> <td>Eliminated with second blowout loss</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Nevada</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Kansas State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>New Mexico</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Texas A&M</td> </tr> <tr> <td>UCF</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Louisville</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Utah</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and a weak Pac 12</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Washington State</td> <td>Eliminated with two losses and a weak Pac 12</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 2:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Appalachian State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Miami (Fl)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Arizona</td> <td>Eliminated with blowout loss to San Diego State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Arkansas State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Memphis</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Ball State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Penn State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Buffalo</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Nebraska</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Eastern Michigan</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Wisconsin</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Florida International</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Texas State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Florida State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to FCS Jacksonville State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Georgia Southern</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Florida Atlantic</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Illinois</td> <td>Eliminated with blowout loss to Virginia, combined with loss to UTSA</td> </tr> <tr> <td>MTSU</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Virginia Tech</td> </tr> <tr> <td>North Texas</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to SMU</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Northern Illinois</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Wyoming</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Toledo</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Notre Dame</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Troy</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Liberty</td> </tr> <tr> <td>UAB</td> <td>Eliminated with ugly loss to Georgia</td> </tr> <tr> <td>UTEP</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Boise State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Western Kentucky</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Army</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>Week 1:</strong></p> <table class="table-responsive-inner" border="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Team:</td> <td>Notes:</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Akron</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Auburn</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Boise State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to South Florida</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Bowling Green</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Tennessee</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Central Michigan</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Missouri</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Colorado State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to South Dakota State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>East Carolina</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Appalachian State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Florida Atlantic</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Florida</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Fresno State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Oregon</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Georgia State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Army</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Hawaii</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to UCLA</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Houston</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Texas Tech</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kent State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Texas A&M</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Louisiana</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Texas</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Louisiana-Monroe</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Kentucky</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Louisiana Tech</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Mississippi State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Miami (Oh)</td> <td>Eliminated with ugly loss to Cincinnati</td> </tr> <tr> <td>New Mexico State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to UTEP</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Navy</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Marshall</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Ohio</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Syracuse</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Old Dominion</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Wake Forest</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Rice</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Arkansas</td> </tr> <tr> <td>San Jose State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to USC</td> </tr> <tr> <td>South Florida</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to N.C. State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Southern Mississippi</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to South Alabama</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Temple</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Rutgers</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Texas State</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Baylor</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Tulane</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Oklahoma</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Tulsa</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to UC Davis</td> </tr> <tr> <td>UConn</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Fresno State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>UMass</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Pitt</td> </tr> <tr> <td>UNLV</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Eastern Washington</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Vanderbilt</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to FCS East Tennessee State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Washington</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to FCS Montana, plus a weakened Pac 12 North</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Western Michigan</td> <td>Eliminated with loss to Michigan</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Make sure you follow the All Sports Discussion Twitter account at <a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fallsportsdacc&sa=D&sntz=1&usg=AFQjCNH80neHSsrNqatIx7rdXWPR9U0_VA" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.google.com/url?q%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Ftwitter.com%252Fallsportsdacc%26sa%3DD%26sntz%3D1%26usg%3DAFQjCNH80neHSsrNqatIx7rdXWPR9U0_VA&source=gmail&ust=1486166502870000&usg=AFQjCNGgOzqUxiig-tlkIjyFOnLEhGtpRQ">@AllSportsDACC</a> and please like our <a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fpages%2FAll-Sports-Discussion%2F184935911533629%3Ffref%3Dts&sa=D&sntz=1&usg=AFQjCNEWEAihdwfmDazuSSnX5l4sK20orQ" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.google.com/url?q%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.facebook.com%252Fpages%252FAll-Sports-Discussion%252F184935911533629%253Ffref%253Dts%26sa%3DD%26sntz%3D1%26usg%3DAFQjCNEWEAihdwfmDazuSSnX5l4sK20orQ&source=gmail&ust=1486166502870000&usg=AFQjCNGr19chQ7IW8VRHn1DFxQH94mz21A">Facebook Page</a></strong></p> <br> <center> <script async src="//pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js"></script> <!-- Bottom_Post --> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:inline-block;width:468px;height:60px" data-ad-client="ca-pub-1227879969298088" data-ad-slot="1445137322"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <br> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js"></script> <!-- Horizontal_6 --> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:inline-block;width:468px;height:60px" data-ad-client="ca-pub-1227879969298088" data-ad-slot="4619304738"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> </center>]]></content:encoded> <wfw:commentRss>https://allsportsdiscussion.com/2021/11/14/week-11-cfp-eliminator-its-finally-time-to-talk-about-cincinnati/feed/</wfw:commentRss> <slash:comments>0</slash:comments> <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">33451</post-id> </item> </channel> </rss>