No one will argue the ACC is down this year, but it didn’t have to be as tenuous with NCAA bids as it is. I’m not talking about money or coaches. The ACC as it is currently constructed should have had at least 6 bids and probably 7.
There are 3 ACC locks, Duke, Clemson, and Lousiville. As it stands now SMU and UNC are on the bubble. Neither may make it, or both or one.
As of now, I’d say 30% on both, 70% on one, 15% on neither, and that could change with with results later today with SMU going to Florida State and UNC playing Duke.
There are no other at-large possibilities, but it shouldn’t have been that way.
SMU is 22-9 (13-7) NET 45, but 0-4 against the Q1
SMU with 5 minutes left was tied with Mississippi State at home and lost 84-79. SMU also lost to Duke, Clemson, and Louisville at home. If SMU just wins 1 of those 4 games, they are probably bubble, but in.
UNC is 20-12 (13-7) NET 38, but 1-10 against the Q1
The Heels have had plenty of chances to get additional Q1 wins. With 2 minutes left they led by 2 at Kansas – lost. They went to OT with Michigan State – lost. They led Florida by 2 with just under 2 minutes and lost. They led Duke on Saturday in the 2nd half – lost. Give the UNC just 1 of those games, and they are in the field to go along with the UCLA win and a decent victory over Dayton. There was also the 1-point loss to Stanford at home.
Pittsburgh is 17-14 (8-12) NET 60
Pittsburgh might be the most unforgivable. They had 3 top 100 wins in OOC including 2 teams West Virginia and Ohio State that will make the field. All they had to do at 12-2 (3-0) was probably finish 20-11 (11-9) just 8-9 in the ACC and they make it. It would taken a total collapse to miss the NCAAs, which is exactly what happened. If the ACC is as down as people make it out to be, Pitt should have cruised. They didn’t.
Wake Forest 21-10 (13-7) NET 72
Wake Forest had a high quality over Michigan and defeated a not-awful Minnesota team. That’s 2-0 against the perceived second-best conference in the country. After winning back-to-back road games against Cal and Stanford they were 18-6 (10-3), and they were in the field in nearly every bracket. Then inexplicably the wheels fell off. They finished 3-4 with home losses to Virginia and FSU and a bad loss to a terrible NC State team. Wake Forest could absorb one of those losses, maybe even 2 of them, but all 3? Even Wake Forest alums wouldn’t put them in the field.
I’ve said this before – you can’t argue the ACC didn’t have Q1 chances either. There weren’t a lot of them, but middle of the pack Georgia Tech picked up 3 since the start of February.
3 of these 4 teams at least – should already be making reservations for March. The reality is that 2 are completely out, and 2 are on the bubble.
There are lots of reasons for the ACC struggling to get bids, but at the end of the day, the opportunities were clearly there if just a couple of games had swung in SMU’s and UNC’s favor or if Pittsburgh and Wake Forest hadn’t fallen apart down the stretch.
Then the narrative goes from the ACC being historically bad to being a top 4 bid league.
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