We’ve focused on the bubble in recent weeks, but there’s movement at the other end of the bracket especially for North Carolina.
The first three #1 seeds are pretty well set. Purdue, Houston, and UConn are locked in as #1 seeds. That left Tennessee, Arizona, and North Carolina fighting it out for that 4th #1 spot. Duke may have had an outside shot with a win over UNC, and an ACC Title.
Saturday really cleared things up and to the benefit of North Carolina.
Tennessee had won 7 games in a row, including wins at Alabama and South Carolina. They hosted Kentucky on their regular season finale and in a surprise took a loss to the Wildcats. That was the first good result for the Tar Heels.
Then the Tar Heels went to top 10 Duke and won 84-79 giving them a 6-game winning streak.
As the night closed Arizona lost by double digits at previously 13-17 USC.
North Carolina got the opening they needed, to pull ahead of Arizona, and get the edge on Tennessee who they beat earlier in the year.
UNC’s Q1/Q2 record is (7-4)(6-2) NET 7. Tennessee’s is (7-6)(6-1) NET 5, and Arizona’s is (8-3)(6-3) NET 4, but with a Q3 loss.
The metrics are close, but that’s where recency bias can set it in. That’s where the Heels have the leg up. Winning at Duke on a day when Arizona and Tennessee lose is really big. If UNC wins the ACCT I think they are getting that #1 seed.
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