Let me preface this piece by saying nothing has changed my opinion on several key points in regard to the ACC realignment.
- There will be no ACC program’s potential movement for several years. The earliest I can see something happening is 4 maybe 5 years from now. I’m actually leaning heavily toward the late 2020s or early 2030s. I think the GOR will be very difficult to break, but someone may challenge it eventually.
- The above doesn’t mean movement will actually happen either. It does mean the ACC and Commissioner Jim Philips have some years to increase revenue. If revenue increases the likelihood of a GOR challenge decreases.
- ESPN will not orchestrate the demise of the ACC – certainly not anytime soon. If your realignment discussion starts with ESPN moving teams, I stop reading because that one is total nonsense.
With all that said, the ACC still has schools the Big 10 and SEC may one day target.
I believe North Carolina has become the leader in the clubhouse at the moment. Last year I did have North Carolina with an 80% of landing in either the Big 10 or SEC. That was behind Florida State and Clemson which I had at over 95% back then. I may need to update that for every ACC school since last year, but we’re looking at North Carolina now.
My reasoning for North Carolina was this…
SEC – 40%
As I’ve said before if the SEC is moving north it’s through the Carolinas and Virginia, but they’re only so many spots to go between NC State, Duke, UNC, Virginia, Virginia Tech, and throw in West Virginia. UNC has a massive basketball brand and just enough football presence.
Big 10 – 40%
If the Big 10 wants to go south through Virginia and Carolina which I think they do, UNC is a player. They also have AAU status
My reasoning was sound, but I’d move those numbers to 44.5% and 44.5% for and 99% chance UNC would end up one or the other. Tweets and quotes like this keep appearing.
The Big Ten targets are @univmiami and @UNC – I was told by a solid source at a B10 Michigan school ” Washington and Oregon are fine candidates but we are looking south. It would be great to set up shop in the heart of @sec country. We know the GOR with the ACC is very complex…
— Jim Williams (@JWMediaDC) July 4, 2023
ESPN’s Pete Thamel said “North Carolina and Virginia are going to be “coveted” heavily by both the Big Ten and SEC”
SEC Media analyst Paul Finebaum says “I would go for North Carolina first because they hit a lot of different boxes. Number one, they’re the dominant university in one of the 10 or 11 largest states in the country.”
No matter who’s looking at ACC realignment targets, UNC always seems to be on the shortlist.
It makes a lot of sense too.
North Carolina is a national brand in a populous state that neither the Big 10 nor SEC are in.
If I were ranking ACC realignment targets, I’d have North Carolina at the top of it today as well.
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