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Mar
11
2023

Who’s In and Who’s Out? – Clemson, Pitt, NC State, and UNC.

So here we go. Duke got the ACC’s automatic bid. Miami and Virginia are locks to make the field.

That leaves Clemson, Pittsburgh, NC State, UNC, and a bubble. Who’s in and Who’s out of the NCAA Field?

Clemson (23-10, 14-6) NET Ranking 57  – Q1/Q2 Record 7-6

It seems the only criteria anyone can use to leave Clemson out of the NCAAs is a non-conference SOS in the 300s. If that’s the only reason to exclude Clemson from the field, then the reality is they are an NCAA team. Penn State’s run to the Big 10 tournament finals only helps their case. They also own a win over ACC Tournament Champion Duke. The two Q4 losses to Louisville and Loyola-Chicago are major black eyes. You can’t deny that.

Where I think Clemson gets an edge is the 4-1 record against Pittsburgh, NC State, and UNC. At some point, head to head matters, right? They also finished higher in the ACC Standings than all 3.

Chances to make the NCAAs – 75%

Pittsburgh (22-11, 14-6) NET Ranking 67 – Q1/Q2 Record 7-9

Pittsburgh is an interesting case. They have the worst NET Ranking but played a quality OOC schedule. Against the other three teams here, they went 3-1. They beat North Carolina twice, and own a solid win at Northwestern. They also own wins over Virginia and Miami, the ACC’s top 2 regular season teams.

How much is NET ranking valued? Since starting the season 1-3, is 21-8. Pittsburgh should be in the field.

Chances to make the NCAAs – 75%

NC State (23-10, 12-8) NET Ranking 45 – Q1/Q2 Record 8-10

NC State has the best NET Ranking of the three teams, but only is 1-4 against them including 3 blowouts to Clemson. Any bracketologist that puts NC State in and leaves Clemson out would have some explaining to do. They do have the most Q1/Q2 wins, and they don’t have a bad loss on their resume.

They beat Duke the ACCT champion, and the ACC regular season champs Miami.

What matters most? Best wins, worst losses, or head-to-head. NC State seems to have nudged ahead on two of those points. They also have a head-to-head win over another bubble team Vanderbilt.

Chances to make the NCAAs – 75%

North Carolina (20-13, 11-9) NET Ranking 46 – Q1/Q2 Record 7-13

North Carolina certainly played the toughest schedule OOC. They took Alabama to 4 OTs, but their resume is filled with tons of almost-wins. Against the other three, they went 2-2. Like NC State they have no bad losses, but in 20 Q1/Q2 games they only have 7 such wins. Clemson has that many in just 13 games. Pitt has that many in 16 games, and NC State more than UNC in 18 games.

North Carolina is an NCAA caliber team, but the national perception of the ACC isn’t good. Somebody is going to be the odd man out, and it looks like it will be UNC. They would have to leap-frog 3 ACC teams, that finished ahead of them in the standings.

Chances to make the NCAAs – 10%

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