Week 13 CFP Eliminator: If USC Falters, is it Ohio State or Alabama?

This will be a somewhat expanded introduction to the Eliminator, because there really is only one question left for the selection committee. We know that Georgia and Michigan have locked up Playoff bids. TCU is in if it wins next week, and might even be in with a loss. USC is almost certainly in with a win.

But what if USC loses? Who’s the #4 team then? Is it Ohio State or is it Alabama?

Honestly, there’s really only one choice. The advanced metrics–which the selection committee often refers to when it wants to buck conventional wisdom–has the two teams about dead even. ESPN’s FPI has Alabama at #2 and Ohio State at #3. It also has Alabama one spot ahead in Game Control, but one spot behind in Strength of Record and three spots behind in Average In-Game Win percentage. Other advanced metrics show a similar split–with Ohio State barely ahead on balance (at least among those released so far), but it basically being a wash.

So, let’s move on to the resume.

Alabama’s best win on the season is Texas, who will clock in at somewhere around #20. The Tide has two more chances at ranked wins, is the committee decides to rank both Ole Miss and Mississippi State. All three of those teams are 8-4 on the season, and none will be higher than #19 at absolute best. Ohio State, meanwhile, has two wins ranked higher than either of those three teams–though Notre Dame might be just one spot ahead of Texas when all is said and done. The win over Penn State–who will finish somewhere between #8 and #10–is far better than any of Alabama’s wins.

Next, lets look at a stat the committee consistently uses to judge schedule strength: wins over teams with winning record. Ohio State has five such wins. Alabama has three. Yes, Alabama’s three potential fringe Top 25 ranked wins are Alabama’s only wins over teams with winning records. Including 6-6 Utah State, Alabama beat five bowl teams; Ohio State beat six.

On to the losses. Alabama’s losses were certainly closer than Ohio State’s was. However, Alabama’s two losses came to teams who will be ranked at the back end of the Top 10. Ohio State’s loss was to the #2 team.

Maybe TCU and USC will both win next week and this point will be moot. TCU might be able to slide in even with a loss at this point, though that bubble gets weird if it comes to it. But if USC loses and it’s a choice between Ohio State and Alabama, resumes and precedent point in only one direction.

Of course, there’s one other precedent to consider: When push comes to shove, the selection committee has always given Alabama an extra benefit of the doubt. Will that be the deciding factor here? I don’t know, and that’s why Alabama isn’t eliminated.

How it works

In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams on this Twitter thread. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.

I need to start with two notes about the process.

1. The premise: My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only: if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to assume a future loss.

Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in modern college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are.

Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.

2. Group of 5 teams: My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory––crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance. With the way this year has begun, no G5 team had a real chance this year.

Week 12: Teams Remaining

As the season goes on, I’ll add more detailed notes by each team explaining why a questionable team has not yet been eliminated. For now, though, we’ll start with just the list. We began the year with 130 teams (James Madison is still transitioning to FBS and is not eligible for the postseason this year). We began Week 12 with 12 teams alive, and three more were eliminated this week. Therefore, nine teams currently remain in College Football Playoff contention.

ACC:

Big 12:

Big Ten:

Pac 12:

SEC:

Teams Eliminated

This season I will only be listing Power 5 teams in this section.

Week 13:

Week 12:

Week 11:

Week 10:

Week 9:

Week 8:

Week 7:

Week 6:

Week 5:

Week 4:

Week 3:

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