Week 3 CFP Eliminator: Arizona State Falls Flat

Welcome to the first edition of this year’s CFP Eliminator.

I would like to once again thank my friends here at All Sports Discussion for hosting it.

The goal is simple: We are going to count down every single FBS team that remains in contention for a College Football Playoff bid. We start with all of the FBS teams, and they get eliminated one by one until only a few remain.

If the Playoff teams are obvious, we will only have four remaining Selection Sunday morning, like 2019. If, like 2018, there is a serious bubble with multiple teams with strong claims for the fourth spot, then we might have five (or, in 2014 and 2018, six) still alive on Selection Sunday.

In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams on this Twitter thread. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.

I am doing things a little differently this year, mostly because I was sick the last two weeks and not up to writing. I will not be tracking Group of 5 teams, as it is already clear we won’t see one in the Playoff this year. Technically, I have not yet eliminated Tulane, Cincinnati, BYU, and Coastal Carolina, but none of those teams have any real chance. Instead, this year’s Eliminator will focus only on the Power 5 teams. Since Power 5 eliminations began this week, we have our first article.

With only four Power 5 eliminations this week, I’ll have to pick on the most embarrassing––and, to be fair, most interesting––to discuss. Arizona State could in theory end up 11-2 with a bunch of good wins. Why have I eliminated them? First of all, the loss to Eastern Michigan is really bad. Not just normal bad loss bad. This is historical upset territory bad. Eastern lost by four touchdowns to ULL last week, and that was only because ULL didn’t show up to play the first half. (The halftime score was 21-0 Eastern Michigan; ULL scored a touchdown on every second-half possession for a 49-21 win.) Add to that the fact that, by definition, the Pac 12 cannibalizes itself more than any other conference (except the Big 12), and the quality wins to make up for this loss just won’t exist. Arizona State is done.

How it works

I need to start with two notes about the process.

1. The premise: My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only: if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to assume a future loss.

Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in modern college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are.

Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.

2. Group of 5 teams: My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory––crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance. With the way this year has begun, no G5 team has a real chance this year, though technically a few are still alive. The best hope for a G5 team right now is both Tulane and Kansas State winning out. Like I said, no real chance.

Week 3: Teams Remaining

As the season goes on, I’ll add more detailed notes by each team explaining why a questionable team has not yet been eliminated. For now, though, we’ll start with just the list. We began the year with 130 teams (James Madison is still transitioning to FBS and is not eligible for the postseason this year). Over the first three weeks of the season, we eliminated 65 teams. Therefore, 65 teams currently remain in College Football Playoff contention.

I include Notre Dame in the ACC in this roundup for simplicity.

ACC:

Big 12:

Big Ten:

Pac 12:

SEC:

Others: BYU, Cincinnati, Coastal Carolina, Tulane

Teams Eliminated

Also, as the season goes on, and when I start eliminating Power 5 teams in earnest, I’ll give more detail in the reason for each elimination. For now, the reason is simple. Any Group of 5 team that loses a game is out. Any Power 5 team that loses to an FCS team is out.

Week 3:

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