With realignment, there’s always a bunch of noise. Most of it is non-sense and barely worth paying attention to.
An interesting recent interview with Sports Illustrated from Notre Dame AD Jack Swarbrick predicts a scenario that I believe could be likely. This piece caught my attention.
From that article…
Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick told Sports Illustrated that he believes the breakup of college sports at the NCAA Division I level is “inevitable,” and puts a potential target date on that seismic change as the mid-2030s. Swarbrick also said there are “so many” schools trying to leave their current conferences, but they’re handcuffed by existing contracts.
I think it’s safe to say he’s not talking about the SEC or Big 10. That leaves the Pac 12, Big 12, and ACC as one of “these” conferences.
What sports betting odds would you take on the mid-2030s being the point in time where this “seismic change” occurs?
I’d say it’s probable.
From that article…
The Southeastern Conference media rights deal runs through 2033–34. The Atlantic Coast goes through 2035–36. The Big Ten is in its negotiation window now, with Fox Sports positioned to be the major stakeholder. The Pac-12 and Big 12 are next on the clock.
The Big 12 is severely disadvantaged with the losses of Oklahoma and Texas in their next TV deal.
The Pac-12 is up for renegotiation after the 2024 season, but how long would they extend their deal? The previous deal was signed for 12 years, and I can’t imagine the next deal would go much further than that – so we’re looking at the mid-2030s for the Pac 12 as well.
What if USC and maybe UCLA or Oregon or someone else does an Oklahoma/Texas and moves to another conference (probably Big 10) as the Pac 12 contract nears an end and before the next one, it is completed?
Then the Pac 12 is as diminished as the Big 12.
Notre Dame’s next TV deal is coming up in the next few years. Does their next agreement also come to an end in the 2030s?
I would think so.
Where does that leave the ACC?
We discussed the options open to the ACC and AD Jim Phillips last July, and he has time to as Swarbrick alluded to.
All signs are pointing to the 2030s as Swarbrick predicts, but what the end game will look like is anyone’s guess.
Here’s something to consider though…
If the SEC and Big 10 pull away which is what many predict, one is going to start outpacing the other eventually, and that’s a fact.
With just two players, somebody is first and somebody is last.
The biggest brands of the trailing conference are going to be thinking about how they can increase their future revenue, and that usually ends up being another realignment move.
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