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Feb
19
2022

Each ACC team’s path to the NCAA Tournament – 2/19/2022 Edition

Selection Sunday is roughly 4 weeks away. Each week we check our weekly bracket projections, but looking down the road what is each ACC team’s path to NCAA with besides the obvious win the ACC Tournament?

NET Rankings are from – https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net

Pittsburgh (11-17, 6-11) NET Ranking 160

Games Remaining – 3

Pittsburgh can’t make the NCAAs without an ACCT, but they can put a dent in other ACC teams’ at-large hopes, just ask UNC.

Chances to make the NCAA Tournament without ACCT Title – 0%

NC State (11-16, 4-12) NET Ranking 133

Games Remaining – 4

Just too many losses for NC State to get in NCAA’s as an at-large team.

Chances to make the NCAA Tournament without ACCT Title – 0%

Georgia Tech (11-15, 4-11) NET Ranking 166

Games Remaining – 5

Georgia Tech was officially moved to a 0% chance to makes the NCAAs as at at-large team after this week.

Chances to make the NCAA Tournament without ACCT Title – 0%

Boston College (9-16, 4-11) NET Ranking 169

Games Remaining – 5

Boston College was also officially eliminated this past week, even if won their last 5 regular season games and made the ACCT Finals.

Chances to make the NCAA Tournament without ACCT Title – 0%

Clemson (12-15, 4-12) NET Ranking 89

Games Remaining – 4

That would be 6 losses in a row to eliminate Clemson completely from any possible at-large chance.

Chances to make the NCAA Tournament without ACCT Title – 0%

Louisville (12-14, 6-10) NET Ranking 130

Games Remaining – 5

Say Louisville wins their last 5 games, and wins 3 or 4 to reach the ACCT Finals. Would that be enough? There’s virtually zero chance it would be.

Chances to make the NCAA Tournament without ACCT Title – 1%

Florida State (14-12, 7-9) NET Ranking 96

Games Remaining – 4

The chances of FSU finishing on a 7-1 run, seems really unlikely – not with all those injuries.

Chances to make the NCAA Tournament without ACCT Title – 1%

Syracuse (14-12, 8-7) NET Ranking 86

Games Remaining – 5

Ok if Syracuse wins out in the regular season, then reach the ACCT finals, that could sneak them in. So you are saying there’s a chance?

Chances to make the NCAA Tournament without ACCT Title – 5%

Virginia (17-10, 11-6) NET Ranking 82

Games Remaining – 3

Virginia probably needs to win 2 of their last 3, and make a deep ACCT run, but their Q1 wins is pretty good for an ACC team. I think they need to hit 20-21 wins to feel like they are solidly on the bubble.

Chances to make the NCAA Tournament without ACCT Title – 40%

Virginia Tech (16-11, 8-8) NET Ranking 37

Games Remaining – 4

If Virginia Tech could have beat UNC following the win over Virginia, I would have had their chances of making the NCAA field at over 50%. Their number is also 20-21 wins like Virginia.

Chances to make the NCAA Tournament without ACCT Title – 40%

North Carolina (19-8, 11-5) NET Ranking 45

Games Remaining – 4

Ok What happened against Pittsburgh? The win over Virginia Tech somewhat righted the ship. UNC needs to target 21-22 wins.

Chances to make the NCAA Tournament without ACCT Title – 65%

Miami (19-8, 11-5) NET Ranking 63

Games Remaining – 4

I still like Miami’s chances, but they are not a lock. They have to hit that 21-22 win mark.

Chances to make the NCAA Tournament without ACCT Title – 75%

Wake Forest (21-7, 11-6) NET Ranking 38

Games Remaining – 3

If Wake Forest can win 2 of their final 3, they should be dancing. Clemson, Louisville, and NC State are the remaining games.

Chances to make the NCAA Tournament without ACCT Title – 80%

Notre Dame (19-8, 12-4) NET Ranking 57

Games Remaining – 4

Notre Dame just needs a 2-2 finish against Syracuse, Georgia Tech, FSU and Pitt and they should feel good entering the NCAAs. Win three and they are in as a lock.

Chances to make the NCAA Tournament without ACCT Title – 90%

Duke  (23-4, 13-3) NET Ranking 12

Games Remaining – 4

Duke doesn’t have to win another game and they will make the NCAAS. They just won’t like their seeding if that happens.

Chances to make the NCAA Tournament without ACCT Title – 100%

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