Selection Sunday is roughly 5 weeks away. Each week we check our weekly bracket projections, but looking down the road what is each ACC team’s path to NCAA with besides the obvious win the ACC Tournament?
NET Rankings are from – https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net
Pittsburgh (8-15, 3-9) NET Ranking 193
Games Remaining – 8
Pittsburgh already has 15 losses. They have to win the ACC Tournament.
Chances to make the NCAA Tournament without ACCT Title – 0%
NC State (10-14, 3-10) NET Ranking 122
Games Remaining – 7
NC State with 14 losses has to win the ACC Tournament.
Chances to make the NCAA Tournament without ACCT Title – 0%
Georgia Tech (10-12, 3-8) NET Ranking 158
Games Remaining – 9
Georgia Tech can lose some combination of 2 more games, including the ACC Tournament which would have them around 22-14. That still may not be enough, as the NET Ranking needs a nearly 90 spot improvement.
Chances to make the NCAA Tournament without ACCT Title – 1%
Boston College (9-12, 4-7) NET Ranking 167
Games Remaining – 9
Boston College is in the same position as Georgia Tech. They can absorb maybe 2 more losses.
Chances to make the NCAA Tournament without ACCT Title – 1%
Louisville (11-12, 5-8) NET Ranking 118
Games Remaining – 7
Louisville only has 7 games left, with maybe 4 or 5 in the ACC Tournament. There just aren’t enough games for them. The Cardinals can only lose 1 more game.
Chances to make the NCAA Tournament without ACCT Title – 1%
Clemson (12-10, 4-7) NET Ranking 70
Games Remaining – 9
A 7-2 regular-season finish for Clemson, put them in the same boat at Virginia Tech. 20 wins are needed at a minimum, and more likely 21 or 22 will be required. They play Duke at home, and a win there would help.
Chances to make the NCAA Tournament without ACCT Title – 5%
Syracuse (12-11, 6-6) NET Ranking 91
Games Remaining – 8
Syracuse joins the boat with Clemson and Virginia Tech, needing to keep that loss total no more than 13. They don’t have to run the table, but they need to come close. They get their shot at Duke at home on February 26.
Chances to make the NCAA Tournament without ACCT Title – 10%
Florida State (13-9, 6-6) NET Ranking 82
Games Remaining – 8
Florida State is trying to survive the injury bug, but a 6-2 finish to the regular season leaves them 19-11 before the ACC tournament. Then if they don’t win it, the Noles probably want to win at least 1 ACC Tournament game and probably 2 or 3.
Chances to make the NCAA Tournament without ACCT Title – 20%
Virginia (14-9, 8-5) NET Ranking 95
Games Remaining – 7
I bet you forgot Virginia, but they are slowly playing themselves into a position where the bubble is in sight. They have two shots at Duke, and getting a split would be huge. They also have a huge OOC win over Providence. Can the Hoos have a 5-2 finish? They are 19-11 (13-7). That could be enough, though they probably could use at least 1 ACCT win.
Chances to make the NCAA Tournament without ACCT Title – 30%
Virginia Tech (13-10, 5-7) NET Ranking 52
Games Remaining – 8
The Hokies are an intriguing case, because of their computer numbers. I think if they can get to 20 wins somehow, they get in. So go 6-2 in their final 8, and that is 19-12, plus 1-1 in the ACC Tournament. That’s 20-13. That’s going to be close. 21-13 or 22-13 sounds much better.
Chances to make the NCAA Tournament without ACCT Title – 30%
North Carolina (16-7, 8-4) NET Ranking 36
Games Remaining – 8
The Tar Heels have a big ole 0 in quad 1 wins. 5 wins in their last 8, will have them 21-10, and with a NET Ranking that should stay in the top 50, I like the Heels chances to sneak in. Anything less could have them really sweating. I feel like 21 is their number to feel safe.
Chances to make the NCAA Tournament without ACCT Title – 75%
Miami (16-7, 8-4) NET Ranking 66
Games Remaining – 8
Miami’s 0-2 week still gives them work to do. They need to go at least 4-4 in the regular season and end the year with 21 wins to feel really good. 5 of their last 8 games are on the road, so the Canes need to win a few games away from home.
Chances to make the NCAA Tournament without ACCT Title – 80%
Wake Forest (19-5, 9-4) NET Ranking 45
Games Remaining – 7
Wake Forest isn’t’ quite a lock, but as long as they play .500 ball in their final games they will be fine. A 4-3 finish in their final 7, and an opening loss in the ACCT will have them 23-9. That will get them in. Wake Forest is close.
Chances to make the NCAA Tournament without ACCT Title – 85%
Notre Dame (16-7, 9-3) NET Ranking 68
Games Remaining – 8
Can Notre Dame make the field going 4-4 in their final 8? That’s 20-11, and go 0-1 in the ACCT? That is a 4-5 ending, and squarely on the bubble. Now get to 21 wins, plus that Kentucky victory and they’ll be fine. I expect them in the field.
Chances to make the NCAA Tournament without ACCT Title – 85%
Duke (19-3, 9-2) NET Ranking 11
Games Remaining – 9
The Blue Devils are the closest to a lock as there is the ACC. They win a couple of more games they are in. I have a feeling that won’t be a problem.
Chances to make the NCAA Tournament without ACCT Title – 99.9%
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