Week 13 CFP Eliminator: Why Nine are Still Alive

With one week left in the season, we still have nine teams left in Playoff contention. Does that number sound high to you? It shouldn’t. Let’s explain why. First of all, let’s look at the teams: Georgia, Cincinnati, Michigan, Alabama, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, Ohio State, Baylor, and Oregon. Do you think Ohio State and Oregon don’t have a chance? Well, I’ll explain why I can’t eliminate them in the best way possible–presenting a scenario.

Let’s say the following results happen this week. Who would you put in?
1. Georgia beats Alabama convincingly (let’s say by two touchdowns or more).
2. Cincinnati loses to Houston.
3. Baylor beats Oklahoma State.

Georgia is a lock in this case. Michigan is in. Notre Dame looks solid. Who’s the fourth? Is it Ohio State, who the advanced stats and metrics prefer? Is it Baylor, who has a better top-end resume but a terrible loss and minimal meat? Is it Oregon, who trails in every metric but owns that head-to-head win over Ohio State? Does Alabama back in, getting an immediate rematch with a Georgia team that just beat it handily? And what if, on top of all this, Michigan loses (convincingly) to Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game? Now we need to find a second team (and no, it won’t be Iowa–Michigan would be the only ranked win on the season for the Hawkeyes, and they have two non-competitive losses). Does Michigan back in anyway? Does this open the door more for Baylor and Oregon?

The answer to all of those questions is, quite honestly, “Maybe.” And if, with one week remaining, I can say “maybe” to a scenario for a team making the Playoff, then they’re not eliminated. It’s that simple.

Georgia is in with a win. Alabama is in with a win. Michigan is in with a win. Cincinnati is almost definitely in with a win. Oklahoma State is in with a win and an Alabama loss. If those things don’t happen, though–we have Notre Dame, Ohio State, Baylor, and Oregon rooting for team chaos.

How the CFP Eliminator works

The goal is simple: We are going to count down every single FBS team that remains in contention for a College Football Playoff bid. We start with all of the FBS teams, and they get eliminated one by one until only a few remain.

If the Playoff teams are obvious, we will only have four remaining Selection Sunday morning, like 2019. If, like 2018, there is a serious bubble with multiple teams with strong claims for the fourth spot, then we might have five (or, in 2014 and 2018, six) still alive on Selection Sunday.

In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams on this Twitter thread. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.

I also need to add two notes about the process.

1. The premise: My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only: if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to assume a future loss.

Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in modern college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are.

Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.

2. Group of 5 teams: My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory––crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance.

Week 12: Teams Remaining

We began this week with 11 teams. In Week 13, we eliminated two teams. Therefore, nine teams currently remain in College Football Playoff contention.

ACC:

Big 12:

Big Ten:

Pac 12:

SEC:

Independents: Notre Dame

AAC: Cincinnati

Conference-USA: Eliminated

MAC: Eliminated

Mountain West: Eliminated

Sun Belt: Eliminated

Teams Eliminated

Week 13:

Week 12:

Week 11:

Week 10:

Week 9:

Week 8:

Week 7:

Week 6:

Week 5:

Week 4:

Week 3:

Week 2:

Week 1:

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