Week 12 CFP Eliminator: Chaos is Upon Us

This has, quite frankly, been the most chaotic season in the CFP’s eight-year history. Perhaps we should have expected it. After all, so many teams are more experienced, given the extra year of eligibility due to COVID. Even so, this year has been wild.

Part of the wildness, however, has been the strength at the top. We noted early on that some contenders were pulling away. As such, and with the parity behind those contenders, we’ve been at basically a dozen or so true contenders for a few weeks now. Because of their lead on the field, we haven’t been able to eliminate teams that have fallen off.

For example, even with a loss to Clemson this week (their second in three weeks), I haven’t been able to eliminate the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. Why not? Well, we’re guaranteed two-loss champions from both the ACC and the Pac 12. The Big Ten, at maximum, will have one team with fewer than two losses. If Georgia beats Alabama–and does so convincingly–there’s only one team with a real bid opportunity from the SEC. Cincinnati could lose a game; Notre Dame could lose its final one. And with so much chaos already, no one is sneaking up on teams from behind.

Would an 11-2 Wake Forest team look in solid Playoff shape as of now? No. But there’s so little that needs to happen to keep the Demon Deacons in it. So I can’t eliminate them. (The same is true of Oregon and Baylor.) Pitt is eliminated, though. I eliminated the Panthers weeks ago, and I stand by it. Losses to good teams can be overcome as more teams lose. But that loss to Western Michigan is an anchor around the Panthers. You just can’t lose to a mediocre MAC team and make the Playoff. I think the committee would take 10-2 Notre Dame (or even 12-1 Cincinnati) over 11-2 Pitt. So the Panthers really have no path.

How the CFP Eliminator works

The goal is simple: We are going to count down every single FBS team that remains in contention for a College Football Playoff bid. We start with all of the FBS teams, and they get eliminated one by one until only a few remain.

If the Playoff teams are obvious, we will only have four remaining Selection Sunday morning, like 2019. If, like 2018, there is a serious bubble with multiple teams with strong claims for the fourth spot, then we might have five (or, in 2014 and 2018, six) still alive on Selection Sunday.

In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams on this Twitter thread. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.

I also need to add two notes about the process.

1. The premise: My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only: if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to assume a future loss.

Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in modern college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are.

Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.

2. Group of 5 teams: My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory––crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance.

Week 12: Teams Remaining

We began this week with 14 teams. In Week 12, we eliminated three teams. Therefore, 11 teams currently remain in College Football Playoff contention.

I include Notre Dame in the ACC in this roundup for simplicity.

ACC:

Big 12:

Big Ten:

Pac 12:

SEC:

Independents: Notre Dame

AAC: Cincinnati

Conference-USA: Eliminated

MAC: Eliminated

Mountain West: Eliminated

Sun Belt: Eliminated

Teams Eliminated

Week 12:

Week 11:

Week 10:

Week 9:

Week 8:

Week 7:

Week 6:

Week 5:

Week 4:

Week 3:

Week 2:

Week 1:

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