Week 10 CFP Eliminator: Contenders Far Ahead of the Field

This week saw a ton of upsets. Eight of the CFP selection committee’s Top 25 teams lost this week, including two of the Top 10. Of the 17 teams we had yet to eliminate last week, four lost. And none of those four teams are the sole elimination this week.

I touched on this a bit in the article last week, but the fact is that the remaining teams just have a huge lead on the field. Only 15 P5 teams have fewer than three losses. Of those 15, some of them are eliminated due to bad losses, weak schedules, or a combination of the two. (Looking at you, Pitt. Maybe a loss to Western Michigan is survivable. But you can’t lose a second along with it.)

What that means, though, is that the teams at the top are so far ahead that they can survive a loss–perhaps two. Georgia would likely be able to get in even if the Bulldogs lose two games. The SEC is possibly looking at getting two teams in–though if Georgia wins the SEC Championship Game that becomes far less likely.

Cincinnati fans might be upset at the committee’s first ranking of the Bearcats. But, really, that doesn’t matter. As teams lose, there are few other options. Another loss by Oregon and some upsets in the Big 12 or Big Ten, and Cincinnati is in the Playoff. There just aren’t other choices for the committee to fall back on.

This lack of other choices leads us to one last thing to worry about. We’re not there yet, but an upset in the Big Ten Championship Game, plus some either SEC or Big 12 chaos, and we might need to look back at our pool of eliminated teams. There are just so few teams remaining, that we may need to consider it. (Either that or conference championship game losers back their way into the Playoff–depending on how things shake out, that might be more likely). Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves, though. For now, let’s keep our eyes on the situation: There are 15 teams in serious contention (plus UTSA, who I haven’t eliminated yet but who has no real chance). Some are in inside position. Others need just a bit more chaos.

One of those teams is Auburn. The Tigers have three losses, which usually automatically eliminates a team. However, given the level of chaos so far and the lack of true contenders, Auburn will be in decent position by winning out. Not only would the Tigers close the season with wins over likely #2 and #1, but they also have an impressive win over Ole Miss, and three losses that are all very respectable.

How the CFP Eliminator works

The goal is simple: We are going to count down every single FBS team that remains in contention for a College Football Playoff bid. We start with all of the FBS teams, and they get eliminated one by one until only a few remain.

If the Playoff teams are obvious, we will only have four remaining Selection Sunday morning, like 2019. If, like 2018, there is a serious bubble with multiple teams with strong claims for the fourth spot, then we might have five (or, in 2014 and 2018, six) still alive on Selection Sunday.

In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams on this Twitter thread. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.

I also need to add two notes about the process.

1. The premise: My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only: if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to assume a future loss.

Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in modern college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are.

Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.

2. Group of 5 teams: My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory––crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance. I will be more willing to eliminate teams before they lose as the season goes on, but for now the standard remains.

Week 10: Teams Remaining

We began this week with 17 teams. In Week 10, we eliminated one team. Therefore, 16 teams currently remain in College Football Playoff contention.

I include Notre Dame in the ACC in this roundup for simplicity.

ACC:

Big 12:

Big Ten:

Pac 12:

SEC:

Independents: Notre Dame

AAC: Cincinnati

Conference-USA: UTSA

MAC: Eliminated

Mountain West: Eliminated

Sun Belt: Eliminated

Teams Eliminated

Week 10:

Week 9:

Week 8:

Week 7:

Week 6:

Week 5:

Week 4:

Week 3:

Week 2:

Week 1:

Make sure you follow the All Sports Discussion Twitter account at @AllSportsDACC and please like our Facebook Page