Week 9 CFP Eliminator: Few True Contenders Remain

The College Football Playoff Eliminator is down to just 17 teams still in potential Playoff contention. Of those 17, six are not actually seriously in the picture. This means, that with five weeks left in the regular season (including the conference championship games), there are only 11 teams truly in contention.

That’s a very low number for this point in the season, and it gives this year the potential to be the most chaotic season in recent history. No one is expecting Georgia or Alabama to lose twice from here, but anything in this sport is possible. And then what? Playoff teams have to come from somewhere, and it seems like those still alive have a lot of leeway over the rest of the field. Not counting BYU, only 18 Power teams have two or fewer losses. Of those 18, several have zero valuable wins (Kentucky), bad losses (Pitt), or a combination thereof. Those teams won’t get consideration from the committee in a normal year––nor should they. Is this year normal? So far, it’s only a little abnormal. If we get to extreme levels of abnormality over the next four weeks, we might expect the committee to do something drastic.

Georgia has a one-game lead on the entire field right now. Ohio State might be able to survive a second loss. Possibly even Oregon could, thanks to the win over Ohio State. Several two-loss SEC West teams are in strong position if they win out. There are still chaos-free paths for the committee. But we’re on the precipice of serious chaos potential. Just look at the teams eliminated. The teams still alive have such a huge resume lead over those out of the race already. People will complain if someone with two (or even three––looking at you, Auburn) losses finds a way to back into the Playoff. But, really, just look around the country at the teams left. If these teams start losing, what other options are there?

How the CFP Eliminator works

The goal is simple: We are going to count down every single FBS team that remains in contention for a College Football Playoff bid. We start with all of the FBS teams, and they get eliminated one by one until only a few remain.

If the Playoff teams are obvious, we will only have four remaining Selection Sunday morning, like 2019. If, like 2018, there is a serious bubble with multiple teams with strong claims for the fourth spot, then we might have five (or, in 2014 and 2018, six) still alive on Selection Sunday.

In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams on this Twitter thread. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.

I also need to add two notes about the process.

1. The premise: My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only: if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to assume a future loss.

Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in modern college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are.

Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.

2. Group of 5 teams: My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory––crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance. I will be more willing to eliminate teams before they lose as the season goes on, but for now the standard remains.

Week 9: Teams Remaining

We began this week with 25 teams. In Week 9, we eliminated eight teams. Therefore, 17 teams currently remain in College Football Playoff contention.

I include Notre Dame in the ACC in this roundup for simplicity.

ACC:

Big 12:

Big Ten:

Pac 12:

SEC:

Independents: Notre Dame

AAC: Cincinnati

Conference-USA: UTSA

MAC: Eliminated

Mountain West: Eliminated

Sun Belt: Eliminated

Teams Eliminated

Week 9:

Week 8:

Week 7:

Week 6:

Week 5:

Week 4:

Week 3:

Week 2:

Week 1:

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