Week 8 CFP Eliminator: Pitt Poses Conundrum

With only three teams eliminated this week, it gives us space to discuss a problematic topic for the ACC: The Pitt Panthers.

Pitt is quickly becoming a strong team overall. Advanced metrics like ESPN’s FPI love the Panthers. Pitt is rising in the major polls, and should approach the Top 10 with a few more wins. With N.C. State’s loss and Wake Forest only undefeated against a very weak schedule, Pitt looks like the ACC’s best chance at reaching the Playoff.

So what’s the problem?

The problem is that Pitt has a worse loss than any Playoff contender in the CFP era has. Michigan State in 2015 lost to 4-8 Nebraska, but that was a tight game against a Power 5 team. 2017 Georgia lost by four scores to Auburn, but Auburn was a top team that year and the Bulldogs avenged that loss in the SEC Championship Game. No team has lost to a Group of 5 team and made the Playoff, though. And Western Michigan is not an elite Group of 5 team. The Broncos aren’t terrible, and they’re a decent MAC team, but Playoff contenders don’t lose to decent MAC teams.

I don’t know what the committee will do with Pitt if push comes to shove and the Panthers are a real option. I do know that they’ll be hesitant to put the Panthers in, unless the other choices are really weaker. Pitt is still alive, but somewhere near the bottom of the pecking order.

We also say goodbye to Clemson this week for the first time since 2014. The Tigers have competed in every CFP other than the inaugural one. With three losses, they won’t compete this year. Clemson has also been ranked in every single one of the selection committee’s weekly rankings. That will likely end this season, leaving Alabama and Ohio State as the only two to appear in every ranking.

How the CFP Eliminator works

The goal is simple: We are going to count down every single FBS team that remains in contention for a College Football Playoff bid. We start with all of the FBS teams, and they get eliminated one by one until only a few remain.

If the Playoff teams are obvious, we will only have four remaining Selection Sunday morning, like 2019. If, like 2018, there is a serious bubble with multiple teams with strong claims for the fourth spot, then we might have five (or, in 2014 and 2018, six) still alive on Selection Sunday.

In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams on this Twitter thread. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.

I also need to add two notes about the process.

1. The premise: My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only: if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to assume a future loss.

Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in modern college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are.

Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.

2. Group of 5 teams: My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory––crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance. I will be more willing to eliminate teams before they lose as the season goes on, but for now the standard remains.

Week 8: Teams Remaining

As the season goes on, I’ll add more detailed notes by each team explaining why a questionable team has not yet been eliminated. For now, though, we’ll start with just the list. We began this week with 28 teams. In Week 8, we eliminated three teams. Therefore, 25 teams currently remain in College Football Playoff contention.

I include Notre Dame in the ACC in this roundup for simplicity.

ACC:

Big 12:

Big Ten:

Pac 12:

SEC:

Independents: Notre Dame

AAC: Cincinnati, SMU

Conference-USA: UTSA

MAC: Eliminated

Mountain West: San Diego State

Sun Belt: Eliminated

Teams Eliminated

Week 8:

Week 7:

Week 6:

Week 5:

Week 4:

Week 3:

Week 2:

Week 1:

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