Week 4 CFP Eliminator: Clemson Crashes

Is it dishonest to use Clemson in the title if I’m not actually eliminating them this week? I don’t think so. Clemson, after all, will be the focus of our discussion.

As I’ll look at in more detail in the charts, there are a whole bunch of two-loss Power 5 teams I’m not eliminating yet. Why not? Well, because there are a lot of them. What happens if they all win? That’s the question I need to ask before I can eliminate teams. Is there a path to the Playoff?

As we all know, there are four Playoff spots and five power conferences. If multiple power conferences have two-loss champions, then it’s likely a two-loss team gets in. Clemson could still win the ACC. Iowa State can still win the Big 12. Odds are the Pac 12 champion having two (or more) losses are pretty high right now. If all those things happen, would Clemson get a Playoff bid? How many games does Notre Dame need to lose to be behind these teams? Does it matter what Cincinnati and BYU do? I don’t know. And since I don’t know, I can’t eliminate these two-loss teams yet.

Of course, since all these things almost certainly won’t happen, I’ll be eliminating teams like Clemson, USC, Iowa State, and Wisconsin eventually. But I have to wait for the wacky scenarios to weed themselves out before I make it official.

How the CFP Eliminator works

The goal is simple: We are going to count down every single FBS team that remains in contention for a College Football Playoff bid. We start with all of the FBS teams, and they get eliminated one by one until only a few remain.

If the Playoff teams are obvious, we will only have four remaining Selection Sunday morning, like 2019. If, like 2018, there is a serious bubble with multiple teams with strong claims for the fourth spot, then we might have five (or, in 2014 and 2018, six) still alive on Selection Sunday.

In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams on this Twitter thread. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.

I also need to add two notes about the process.

1. The premise: My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only: if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to assume a future loss.

Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in modern college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are.

Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.

2. Group of 5 teams: My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory––crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance. I will be more willing to eliminate teams before they lose as the season goes on, but for now the standard remains.

Week 4: Teams Remaining

As the season goes on, I’ll add more detailed notes by each team explaining why a questionable team has not yet been eliminated. For now, though, we’ll start with just the list. We began this week with 66 teams. In Week 4, we eliminated seven teams. Therefore, 59 teams currently remain in College Football Playoff contention.

I include Notre Dame in the ACC in this roundup for simplicity.

ACC:

Big 12:

Big Ten:

Pac 12:

SEC:

Independents: Army, BYU

AAC: Cincinnati, SMU

Conference-USA: UTSA

MAC: Eliminated

Mountain West: San Diego State, Wyoming

Sun Belt: Coastal Carolina, South Alabama

Teams Eliminated

Week 4:

Week 3:

Week 2:

Week 1:

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