Week 3 CFP Eliminator: Pac 12 Falling

Our Eliminator is back in Week 3. We’re running out of Group of 5 teams already, and the Pac 12 is looking to join.

Last week, the Pac 12 was 12-12 in nonconference play. That’s bad. This week, it got even worse. The conference went 5-5, including the Pac 12 South going 0-5. The conference already has structural disadvantages. It’s only three weeks into the season, and there are already 17 nonconference losses spread around. The Pac 12 South champion will likely have three losses, at least. I haven’t eliminated all of the Pac 12 teams with losses yet, but it’s coming. Oregon might get a one-loss grace due to the win over Ohio State. It’s not official yet, but it’s Ducks or bust for the Pac 12 and the Playoff this year.

Other conferences are beginning to show cracks as well, though. The Big 12 hasn’t picked up too many losses, but none of the teams look like likely Playoff contenders. Only two ACC teams are undefeated, and neither of those are serious Playoff teams. We are entering a realm where just a few upsets leave us without a serious contender from the Pac 12 or ACC. And with ten weeks left in the season, that’s not so unlikely. Who would benefit from such a situation?

Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves, but there are certainly teams in southern Ohio and northern Utah that are very interested.

How the CFP Eliminator works

The goal is simple: We are going to count down every single FBS team that remains in contention for a College Football Playoff bid. We start with all of the FBS teams, and they get eliminated one by one until only a few remain.

If the Playoff teams are obvious, we will only have four remaining Selection Sunday morning, like 2019. If, like 2018, there is a serious bubble with multiple teams with strong claims for the fourth spot, then we might have five (or, in 2014 and 2018, six) still alive on Selection Sunday.

In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams on this Twitter thread. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.

I also need to add two notes about the process.

1. The premise: My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only: if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to assume a future loss.

Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in modern college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are.

Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.

2. Group of 5 teams: My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory––crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance. I will be more willing to eliminate teams before they lose as the season goes on, but for now the standard remains.

Week 3: Teams Remaining

As the season goes on, I’ll add more detailed notes by each team explaining why a questionable team has not yet been eliminated. For now, though, we’ll start with just the list. We began this week with 78 teams. In Week 3, we eliminated 12 teams. Therefore, 66 teams currently remain in College Football Playoff contention.

I include Notre Dame in the ACC in this roundup for simplicity.

ACC:

Big 12:

Big Ten:

Pac 12:

SEC:

Independents: Army, BYU, Liberty

AAC: Cincinnati, Memphis, SMU

Conference-USA: UTSA

MAC: Eliminated

Mountain West: San Diego State, Utah State, Wyoming

Sun Belt: Coastal Carolina, South Alabama

Teams Eliminated

Also, as the season goes on, and when I start eliminating Power 5 teams in earnest, I’ll give more detail in the reason for each elimination. For now, the reason is usually simple. Any Group of 5 team that loses a game is out. Any Power 5 team that loses to an FCS team is out.

Week 3:

Week 2:

Week 1:

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