Week 2 CFP Eliminator: Oregon Saves the Pac 12

Our Eliminator is back in Week 2, whittling down the smaller-conference teams, and dealing with a Pac 12 on the brink of collapse.

The Pac 12 has gone a staggering 12-12 in nonconference play so far. For a conference that begins behind the eight-ball due to structural disadvantages in scheduling, that’s an unacceptable number of nonconference losses. We’re two weeks into the season, and a Pac 12 team basically already needs to go undefeated to get a Playoff bid. There are just too many losses in the conference for there to be enough quality wins.

And then there’s Oregon. The Ducks are the Pac 12’s light in the darkness. Oregon’s win over Ohio State gives the Ducks a real path to the Playoff, shows they’re a contender, and gives every Pac 12 team a quality opponent. Had Oregon lost that game, we’re likely in “UCLA or bust” territory for the conference right now. With Oregon’s win, the Ducks have a bit of leeway–as does any one-loss Pac 12 champion with a win over Oregon (assuming Oregon doesn’t lose too many games).

How the CFP Eliminator works

The goal is simple: We are going to count down every single FBS team that remains in contention for a College Football Playoff bid. We start with all of the FBS teams, and they get eliminated one by one until only a few remain.

If the Playoff teams are obvious, we will only have four remaining Selection Sunday morning, like 2019. If, like 2018, there is a serious bubble with multiple teams with strong claims for the fourth spot, then we might have five (or, in 2014 and 2018, six) still alive on Selection Sunday.

In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams on this Twitter thread. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.

I also need to add two notes about the process.

1. The premise: My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only: if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to assume a future loss.

Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in modern college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are.

Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.

2. Group of 5 teams: My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory––crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance. I will be more willing to eliminate teams before they lose as the season goes on, but for now the standard remains.

Week 2: Teams Remaining

As the season goes on, I’ll add more detailed notes by each team explaining why a questionable team has not yet been eliminated. For now, though, we’ll start with just the list. We began this week with 96 teams. In Week 2, we eliminated 18 teams. Therefore, 78 teams currently remain in College Football Playoff contention.

I include Notre Dame in the ACC in this roundup for simplicity.

ACC:

Big 12:

Big Ten:

Pac 12:

SEC:

Independents: Army, BYU, Liberty

AAC: Cincinnati, Memphis, SMU, UCF

Conference-USA: Charlotte, Marshall, UTSA

MAC: Eliminated

Mountain West: Air Force, Nevada, New Mexico, San Diego State, Utah State, Wyoming

Sun Belt: Coastal Carolina South Alabama

Teams Eliminated

Also, as the season goes on, and when I start eliminating Power 5 teams in earnest, I’ll give more detail in the reason for each elimination. For now, the reason is usually simple. Any Group of 5 team that loses a game is out. Any Power 5 team that loses to an FCS team is out.

Week 2:

Week 1:

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