Week 1 CFP Eliminator: How to Treat Miami

Welcome to the first edition of this year’s CFP Eliminator. I would like to once again thank my friends here at All Sports Discussion for hosting it.

The goal is simple: We are going to count down every single FBS team that remains in contention for a College Football Playoff bid. We start with all of the FBS teams, and they get eliminated one by one until only a few remain.

If the Playoff teams are obvious, we will only have four remaining Selection Sunday morning, like 2019. If, like 2018, there is a serious bubble with multiple teams with strong claims for the fourth spot, then we might have five (or, in 2014 and 2018, six) still alive on Selection Sunday.

In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams on this Twitter thread. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.

There’s usually not much to discuss in the first week of the year. Group of 5 teams that lose are eliminated, and most Power 5 teams are not, even if their chances are basically done. This week, though, I want to focus a bit on Miami (Fl). The Hurricanes were crushed by Alabama, which gives us a good opportunity to bring up something the committee hasn’t had to deal with yet. We know the committee often doesn’t punish teams that lose close games to good teams, or those that schedule up out of conference. But what if a team loses in a blowout?

Blowout losses have been enough to derail a Playoff bid in the past (think 2017 and 2018 Ohio State). But neither of those losses were to great teams. Is Miami dead in the water even if it runs the table? Who wants to see a team that already got completely blown out in the Playoff? Then again, Georgia lost to Auburn by 23 in 2017, and that team made the Playoff. Is losing to Alabama by 31 worse than losing to Auburn by 23? I doubt it.

How it works

I need to start with two notes about the process.

1. The premise: My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only: if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to assume a future loss.

Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in modern college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are.

Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.

2. Group of 5 teams: My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory––crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance. I will be more willing to eliminate teams before they lose as the season goes on, but for now the standard remains.

Week 1: Teams Remaining

As the season goes on, I’ll add more detailed notes by each team explaining why a questionable team has not yet been eliminated. For now, though, we’ll start with just the list. We began the year with 130 teams. Between Week 1 and “Week 0,” we eliminated 34 teams. Therefore, 96 teams currently remain in College Football Playoff contention.

I include Notre Dame in the ACC in this roundup for simplicity.

ACC:

Big 12:

Big Ten:

Pac 12:

SEC:

Independents: Army, BYU, Liberty

AAC: Cincinnati, Memphis, SMU, UCF

Conference-USA: Charlotte, FIU, Marshall, MTSU, North Texas, UAB, UTEP, UTSA, Western Kentucky

MAC: Ball State, Buffalo, EMU, Northern Illinois, Toledo

Mountain West: Air Force, Nevada, New Mexico, San Diego State, Utah State, Wyoming

Sun Belt: Appalachian State, Arkansas State, Coastal Carolina, Georgia Southern, South Alabama, Troy

Teams Eliminated

Also, as the season goes on, and when I start eliminating Power 5 teams in earnest, I’ll give more detail in the reason for each elimination. For now, the reason is simple. Any Group of 5 team that loses a game is out. Any Power 5 team that loses to an FCS team is out.

Week 1:

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