ACC has solid 2021 NFL Draft, so where were the wins?

After two down cycles in the NFL Draft, that we documented last year  the ACC returned in 2021 with a solid performance in the draft.

Most picks by conference in the 2021 #NFLDraft live
(h/t @NFLResearch)

(5 or more selections)
65 – SEC
44 – Big Ten
42 – ACC
28 – Pac-12
22 – Big 12
19 – AAC
14 – Independent
5 – Conference-USA

— Chase Goodbread (@ChaseGoodbread) May 2, 2021

Ranking 3rd behind the SEC, and just behind the Big 10, the ACC had 42 NFL Picks in this year’s NFL Draft. We correctly predicted last year the ACC was due for a rebound.

Wins largely correlate to talent which largely correlates to recruiting. Don’t let anyone try to convince you otherwise. For every exception, I’ll give you twenty examples of the best teams recruiting well and producing the most NFL talent. Great coaching is a must, but it helps to have that talent.

The ACC has let the talent base slip, and it shows up in the recent NFL Drafts.

I think a rebound is coming though.

The ACC just produced plenty of NFL talent, so how exactly did the ACC go 4-13 in bowl games the last two years including 0-6 last year? From mcubed.net, the ACC has losing record against every other Power 5 conference the last 2 years. For more context, the ACC hasn’t had an over .500 record against the SEC since 2016, the Big 10 since 2016, the Big 10 since 2018, and the Pac 12 since 2006!

If the ACC can produce that many NFL players, just what exactly is going on?

First let’s look at the ACC Team breakdown of draft picks from CBSSports.com.

Pittsburgh – 6

Pat Narduzzi has never had fewer than 5 losses in season since he’s been at Pittsburgh. There’s a reason Pitt fans are growing frustrated. They led the ACC in NFL picks – seriously.

Clemson – 5

Clemson is an elite program, but 5 NFL picks is part of why they’ve slipped behind Alabama when they pulled even a couple of years ago.

North Carolina – 5

Mack Brown has UNC pointing in the right direction as he enters year three with the Heels.

Virginia Tech – 4

Justin Fuente begins 2021 on the hot seat. That’s a fact.

Miami – 4

Where exactly are the Canes headed in year three under Manny Diaz?

Duke – 4

David Cutcliffe best Duke year’s seem years ago.

Florida State – 4

Mike Norvell is early in his rebuild of Florida State. It is just year two for him.

Syracuse – 2

What has Dino Babers done really other than the magical 2018 season at Syracuse? There’s simmering discontent at Syracuse.

Louisville – 2

Scott Satterfield exceeded expectations in his first year, and disappointed in year two. He inherited a mess from Bobby Petrino.

Boston College – 2

Jeff Hafley had a good year one at BC. He’s also just a 2nd year head coach.

Georgia Tech – 2

Geoff Collins had to overhaul Georgia Tech’s talent base from the Triple Option. He is in year three in Atlanta.

Wake Forest – 1

Dave Clawson will never have tons of NFL talent. The Deacs usually play above their weight class anyways – oh and QB Jamie Newman should have stayed. Clawson had him headed to being an NFL pick and then he got a lot of really bad advice.

NC State – 1

NC State’s NFL talent is still on their current squad. They are just 2 years removed from being the ACC’s worst team, so Dave Doeren had some rebuilding to do.

You can easily identify where were the wins were for the ACC. Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech have hotseat coaches. Syracuse is close to that too, and I’m not sure how many more years David Cutcliffe has. Other than NC State, Clemson, and Wake Forest the rest of the ACC coaches are in year 2 or year 3 of their programs.

That’s a mixture of a number coaches who’ve either been largely mediocre or are very early in their coaching tenures at their schools. That goes back to the subpar 2019 and 2020 NFL drafts for the ACC that coincided with the many coaching changes, and the losing records to most of the other power 5 conference since 2016.

A talent drain plus coaching transition is a bad combination for winning football.

The positive is that the ACC just had their best NFL draft since 2018, and it was spread pretty evenly among the conference’s teams.

The players drafted were still mostly recruited by the previous staffs which speaks to solid development work by the new coaches, because it wasn’t there the last two years.

Whether the ACC can build on this year’s draft remains to be seen, but for a conference that has had few good football results in recent years this is a small step forward.

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