With just a 3 weeks left before Selection Sunday, it’s time to take an in-depth look at each ACC team’s path to the NCAA tournament. We’re still a little to far away to say what will be required in in the ACCT to make the field. This is what is needed to be a lock prior to then.
LOCKS
Florida State 13-3 (9-2)
Virginia 15-5 (11-3)
Virginia Tech 14-4 (8-3)
There is nothing that can keep Florida State, Virginia, and Virginia Tech from making the NCAA tournament. Even if they go winless for the rest of the year, they are making the field, and that isn’t happening either.
ALMOST a LOCK
Clemson 13-5 (7-5)
Clemson has wins over Alabama, Purdue, UNC, and Florida State for a great resume. One more win and they are fine. Wake Forest, Miami, and Pitt are left.
North Carolina 14-7 (8-5)
The Heels can’t match Clemson’s resume, but their win total in adding up. They have wins over Stanford and bubble teams Syracuse and Louisville. Two more wins should lock up a bid for them. Marquette, BC, FSU, Syracuse, and Duke finish the schedule.
STILL a REALISTIC PATH
Louisville 11-5 (6-4)
On paper Louisville doesn’t look in bad shape, but the finish may cause problems – Notre Dame, at Duke, at Virginia Tech, and Virginia? What if Louisville goes 1-3? That’s 12-8 (7-7) and I don’t see a win over a team that would for sure make the NCAA field. Louisville better go no worse than 2-2.
Syracuse 13-6 (7-5)
Syracuse has win over Virginia Tech, and… that’s it. They end the season with games @Duke, @Georgia Tech, and North Carolina. The Orange need 2 out of 3. A 1-2 finish won’t cut it.
Georgia Tech 11-8 (7-6)
Georgia Tech has the best wins of the bubble teams. They have victories over Florida State, Clemson, and North Carolina, but some really ugly losses too. A 2-2 finish would leave Georgia Tech 13-10 (9-8). That’s not good enough. We discussed GT in depth in another post, but they’d be well advised to go 3-1. Getting the home Boston College game rescheduled wouldn’t hurt.
Duke 10-8 (8-6)
Duke’s brand will help them get in if it’s a close call, but they still need a good finish. Syracuse, Louisville, @Georgia Tech, and @UNC will be tough, but some quality wins are available there. If Duke goes 2-2, that’s 12-10 (10-8). Would an above .500 in the ACC Duke team get left out? I doubt it, but go 3-1 or better and Duke doesn’t need to worry at all. The win over Virginia was HUGE.
WINNING OUT REQUIRED
Pittsburgh 9-9 (5-8)
Notre Dame 9-11 (6-8)
NC State 10-9 (6-8)
Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, and NC State must win out to even get on the bubble. A single loss for any takes them out of consideration.
FORGET IT
Wake Forest 6-11 (3-11)
Miami 7-13 (3-12)
Boston College 3-13 (1-9)
Even winning out won’t get these team’s into the NCAA Tournament.
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