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You can feel and sense the climate of doubt and skepticism surrounding the Notre Dame Fighting Irish this week. The Clemson Tigers are a hefty 10-point favorite over Brian Kelly’s team in the ACC Championship Game on Saturday. It’s entirely understandable.
Trevor Lawrence, who missed the first meeting between these two teams in South Bend, will get to face Notre Dame in the rematch. Even without Lawrence and a number of other players, Clemson took Notre Dame to overtime on the road over a month ago. Notre Dame’s Ian Book needed to produce a storybook touchdown drive — think of Notre Dame alumnus Joe Montana in Super Bowl XXIII, driving the length of the field against the Cincinnati Bengals — to tie Clemson late in regulation before the Irish prevailed in a second overtime inning.
Now, a hungry bunch of Tigers — with Dabo Swinney breathing fire and playing the role of college football villain to perfection — want revenge against Notre Dame. They have their starting quarterback tanned, rested and ready. If you think Clemson is going to kick the snot out of the Irish, you’re not alone.
It’s reasonable to say that this game is set up for Notre Dame to fail. The argument can certainly be made.
However:
If asked about Notre Dame’s national championship capabilities, I’m actually not as bearish on the Fighting Irish as even I myself expected.
Notre Dame was wiped off the map by Clemson in the 2018 playoff semifinals, much as it was dominated by Alabama in the 2013 BCS National Championship Game. Those memories make it easy to write off the Irish, but as the 2020 playoff approaches, I actually think the Irish are going to be competitive. That doesn’t make them the favorite — Alabama owns that position — but we’re going to see the Irish put up a very good fight.
Does the pandemic have something to do with this? Yes… but it’s hardly the whole story.
Let’s address the pandemic and then move to other matters.
The pandemic will help Notre Dame because it has disrupted teams’ rhythms and schedules this year. Ohio State, should it make the playoff, will not have played a large number of games due to the pandemic. The Buckeyes will not have been battle-tested against a lot of elite teams. Indiana is a legitimately strong team, but other opponents haven’t made the cut. Ohio State would enter this playoff not knowing it is a proven juggernaut against top-tier competition. It HOPES so, but it doesn’t KNOW it belongs. That matters. Notre Dame’s defense contained North Carolina’s high-powered offense. It could certainly contain Ohio State as well. If Indiana could force several turnovers by Justin Fields, the Irish can do the same.
We have already seen the Irish beat Clemson. Though Trevor Lawrence didn’t play on Nov. 7, the Irish still had to score 33 on Clemson’s defense in regulation time. The Irish defense still had to play well in the red zone and force a number of Clemson field goals. Plus, it’s not as though Trevor Lawrence has been a Heisman-level player in 2020. See him against Virginia Tech? See him against Syracuse? Nothing special, to be honest. Sure, Lawrence is a top-two pick in the next NFL draft, but his actual game performances have not been jawdropping. Travis Etienne has had a better season in terms of regular game-to-game performances.
If Notre Dame faces Clemson a third time in a playoff championship game, the Irish would certainly have a chance. Familiarity with Clemson’s scheme and personnel would help, not hurt, the Irish’s excellent defense in that matchup.
If Notre Dame’s path to the national title has a foremost obstacle, it is Alabama… but not because Notre Dame is uniquely unsuited to stop the Tide. EVERYONE is unsuited to stop this roaring Ferrari of an offense. Mac Jones and DeVonta Smith are Heisman candidates, likely to be Heisman finalists. One of the two will probably win the award. Najee Harris isn’t chopped liver, either. Yet, the key is that Alabama has the best offensive line in the country. Alabama’s line enables the skill players to run wild. Mac Jones has time in the pocket. Najee can run for several yards per carry. The Tide can do whatever they want on nearly every play. Defenses are constantly unsure of whether Bama will run or pass on a specific down.
Notre Dame will have problems with that offense… and Clemson and Ohio State will, too.
Notre Dame can certainly win the national title, but Alabama is going to be the ultimate problem. Notre Dame is hoping it will face Ohio State in the semifinals, that’s for sure.
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