With one week remaining in the college football season, we count 11 teams still alive in the College Football Playoff race. Of course, of those 11 teams, some are in far stronger position than others. This week’s CFP Implications will be very simple: We will run down the 11 teams and what they each need to make the Playoff:
Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama has the simplest path to the Playoff. As long as Alabama doesn’t get blown out by Florida in the SEC Championship Game, the Crimson Tide will make the Playoff. Depending on circumstances, perhaps the Crimson Tide can make the Playoff even with a blowout loss. That’s how strong Alabama’s position is. We won’t spend more time on Alabama, because the Tide will make the Playoff.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame is in a similar position to Alabama, though not quite as strong. Short of a blowout win by Clemson, it’s hard to see what makes Notre Dame fall below any team other than Clemson and Ohio State. Even with a blowout loss, the Irish would have a better resume than Texas A&M or Oklahoma. Is anyone worried about Cincinnati jumping the Irish? I wouldn’t be. Notre Dame is almost certainly in, though the Irish should avoid a blowout to stay safe.
Clemson Tigers
Clemson is win and in the Playoff. That is essentially guaranteed now. What if Clemson loses, though? Can the Tigers back in to the Playoff with two losses to Notre Dame? The short answer is almost certainly not. The long answer, though, is maybe. Especially if a second loss is also close (or requires overtime again). Would the committee put a one-loss Texas A&M in over Clemson? Texas A&M and Clemson have similar top wins, but the Aggies were blown out by Alabama while Clemson would have–in this scenario–two very close losses to Notre Dame. Would an undefeated Cincinnati jump Clemson? What about a two-loss Iowa State (with a loss to Louisiana) or Oklahoma (with an ugly loss to Kansas State)? Can Clemson stay ahead of one-loss Indiana? It doesn’t seem like Clemson has a good chance to make the Playoff with a second loss–though Ohio State losing to Northwestern would drastically increase its chances–but it’s not impossible, either.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State’s Playoff path is pretty boring, honestly. The Buckeyes are win and in, lose and out. That’s it.
Texas A&M Aggies
Texas A&M looked to be in very strong position, sitting at #5 in the rankings (where the Aggies will almost certainly stay this week as well). However, that strength is dwindling. The resume is now relying solely on a win over Florida, which got a lot worse this week. And, unless Florida is very competitive against or beats Alabama, it won’t look any better next week either. While the Aggies did better than almost anyone else against Alabama, losing by 28 points to the #1 team in the country doesn’t exactly scream “Playoff-worthy.” On top of that, Alabama will be the #1 seed and the Aggies are likely only in play for #4, so that would require setting up a rematch of a blowout.
Basically, Texas A&M needs Ohio State to lose this weekend. That opens up the #3 slot and removes a team in front of the Aggies. Otherwise, it would be very likely to see someone behind Texas A&M–Cincinnati or the Big 12 champion, or maybe even USC if the Trojans win in impressive fashion this weekend–to jump the Aggies in the final rankings. Or, failing that, perhaps Clemson doesn’t fall lower than #4.
Yes, Texas A&M will likely start the weekend at #5. But the Aggies are firmly on Team Chaos at this point.
Florida Gators
Florida shot itself in the shoe with its loss to LSU. How does Florida get back in the Playoff picture? The Gators need to beat Alabama–convincingly, and then have a spot in front open up. That means Notre Dame blowing out Clemson. It means Ohio State losing. And it means Texas A&M–which has a head-to-head win over Florida–losing this weekend as well. Florida needs all three of those, and the Gators need to hope that they aren’t passed by the Big 12 champion and an undefeated USC as well. I think Florida would jump Cincinnati with a win over Alabama, but the Bearcats struggling against Tulsa wouldn’t hurt. Florida can afford to stay behind one team in the above list (assuming Alabama and Notre Dame make the Playoff), and that’s it. It’s a rough road for the Gators.
Cincinnati Bearcats
The Bearcats are in a position they could have barely dreamed of when the season began. They are arguably first in line outside the Top 4 to reach the Playoff. Yes, Iowa State was ahead of them in the committee’s rankings last week, but when push comes to shove it’s hard to see Iowa State in the Playoff. The Cyclones lost to Louisiana (by 17 points), and the Ragin’ Cajuns will have at worst two losses, both to an undefeated team. Putting Iowa State in the Playoff over either Louisiana or Coastal Carolina would raise serious issues, and the committee will avoid it if at all possible. As long as Cincinnati looks strong in beating Tulsa, I would expect the Bearcats to jump the Cyclones if the #4 spot came down to those two.
So, what does Cincinnati need? First of all, the Bearcats need a spot to open up. That means either Notre Dame beating Clemson (preferably convincingly) or Northwestern beating Ohio State. After that, it would help if Texas A&M loses, though it’s not clear if that’s necessary. The Bearcats would like to see USC lose to take that potential risk off the table, though it’s minor. Similarly, the Bearcats want Alabama to beat Florida to take the risk of getting jumped by the Gators off the table, as well as to hurt Texas A&M’s resume. Lastly, it would help to see Oklahoma win the Big 12 Championship Game, though as mentioned above I don’t think that’s fully necessary.
Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana is in the same boat as Cincinnati, but a weaker position. The Hoosiers can’t expect to jump Ohio State. In fact, they want the Buckeyes to look as strong as possible. Indiana needs Clemson to lose convincingly, and the Hoosiers need everything that Cincinnati needs, as well as a Cincinnati loss. Indiana also needs Texas A&M to lose, and likely needs Oklahoma to barely win the Big 12 Championship Game.
Oklahoma Sooners (and Iowa State Cyclones)
Oklahoma is in line behind Indiana, though the Sooners can likely jump the Hoosiers with a convincing win. They need everything Indiana needs, plus either an Indiana loss or a convincing win. Oklahoma doesn’t really want to see a Northwestern win, as the Wildcats could likely jump Oklahoma by beating Ohio State.
What does Iowa State need? As I said above, I think when push comes to shove the loss to Louisiana will keep the Cyclones out of the picture. However, if there is enough chaos the committee might not have much of a choice. If Alabama, Notre Dame, and Ohio State wins–and Texas A&M, USC, and Cincinnati lose (and Indiana loses)–there won’t be much other choice. Iowa State is last in line behind all of the teams on this list (both above and below), but the Cyclones are definitely in line ahead of every team that has been eliminated.
Northwestern Wildcats
Northwestern would like to see all of the chaos that Indiana needs, along with a convincing win over Ohio State. The loss to Michigan State will hold the Wildcats back in line, but if there are limited other options Northwestern can be in play. The Wildcats likely don’t need everything that Oklahoma needs, because in Northwestern’s case there are two open Playoff spots (since Ohio State falls out). As long as Alabama wins and Notre Dame wins convincingly, Northwestern can afford for one of the things that Oklahoma or Indiana is rooting for not to happen.
USC Trojans
USC is the wild card. What do the Trojans need? It’s hard to know. By any serious ranking metric, USC isn’t really in the picture. The Trojans are undefeated, yes. But they’re only paid five games and have struggled in all of them. USC needed last-minute comebacks in three of their games, including against winless (and quite hapless) Arizona. The Trojans haven’t shown nearly the same in their five games that, say, Ohio State has in its five games.
What does USC need? USC needs all the chaos mentioned above. Most of all, though, the Trojans need to win their final game convincingly. Without that, USC won’t get serious discussion in the final rankings.
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