As we approach the final weekend of the college football season, we have 11 teams still in the College Football Playoff race.
Of those 11, one–Alabama–has likely locked up a Playoff berth already. No matter what happens–barring something insane like a 35-point loss to Florida this weekend–the Crimson Tide will be in the Playoff.
Who will join Alabama, though? Notre Dame seems very likely to. I wouldn’t call the Fighting Irish a lock yet–certainly not as close to a lock as Alabama is–but they’re close. What about the final two spots? Of that, there are definitely possibilities. Nine teams are still in the mix, though most of those teams’ cases only get off the ground if Ohio State loses to Northwestern this weekend. Assuming the Buckeyes win that game, we will see several eliminations as soon as it goes final. Teams like Indiana, Florida, USC, and possibly even Texas A&M only have a real shot if there are two spots up for grabs, not just one.
I would also like to focus on a team not in the conversation. We eliminated the Iowa State Cyclones early in the year, due to a 17-point loss to Louisiana and a conference loss. I stand by that, too. The Cyclones might be ranked above several teams not yet eliminated, but Iowa State would need a miraculous amount of chaos to be seriously considered. After all, how can you put Iowa State in when the Cyclones lost to a team with an (at worst) equal record, whose only loss(es) would be to undefeated Coastal Carolina? Iowa State winning a Playoff would risk a legitimate claim to a split title if the winner of this week’s Sun Belt Championship Game also wins its bowl game. Iowa State’s path to the Playoff involves being literally the only option available. With Florida’s loss this week that went from “impossible” to “exceedingly unlikely,” but we do need to acknowledge the remote possibility.
In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams in this Twitter thread. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.
How it works
I need to start with two notes about the process.
1. The premise: My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only–if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to do it assuming a future loss.
Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are. Keep in mind that this season is a weird one, so I may have to replace my “judging by 2007” standard, but for now I can stick with it.
Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.
2. Group of 5 teams: My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory–crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance. This year I am somewhat going against this policy, but I’m holding to it as much as I can.
Week 14: Teams Remaining
We began the year with 130 teams, though not all have played this season. With three more eliminations this week, there are now 11 teams remaining in Playoff contention.
ACC:
| Team: | Notes: |
|---|---|
| Clemson | ACC Championship Game against Notre Dame likely is win and in, lose and out (though there’s a tiny chance Clemson can back in with a loss). |
| Notre Dame | Beat Clemson in ACC Championship Game is a lock, but Notre Dame might be in anyway. |
Big 12:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Oklahoma | Needs to beat Iowa State convincingly, and needs chaos in front of them. |
Big Ten:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Indiana | Needs massive chaos. |
| Northwestern | Needs to beat Ohio State convincingly to get back in the discussion. |
| Ohio State | Likely one win away from a Playoff berth. |
Pac 12:
| Team: | Notes: |
| USC | Needs a convincing Pac 12 Championship Game win and massive amounts of chaos. |
SEC:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Alabama | Likely a Playoff lock already. |
| Florida | Needs to beat Alabama to be discussed. |
| Texas A&M | Possibly first in line to get in if Ohio State loses a game. |
Independents: None
AAC: Cincinnati
Conference-USA: None
MAC: None
Mountain West: None
Sun Belt: None
Teams Eliminated
Week 14:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Colorado | Eliminated with loss to Utah |
| Georgia | Eliminated with no reasonable path to the Playoff |
| Miami (FL) | Eliminated with blowout loss to North Carolina |
Week 13:
| Team: | Notes: |
| BYU | Eliminated with loss to Coastal Carolina |
| Marshall | Eliminated with loss to Rice |
| Oklahoma State | Eliminated with third loss |
| Washington | Eliminated with loss to Stanford |
| Wisconsin | Eliminated with two losses and no path to getting enough meaningful wins to overcome them (even if the Badgers get to play Ohio State) |
Week 12:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Auburn | Eliminated with third loss |
| Maryland | Eliminated with two losses and not enough potential for quality wins |
| North Carolina | Eliminated with third loss |
| Oregon | Eliminated with loss to Oregon State |
| Texas | Eliminated with third loss |
Week 11:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Liberty | Eliminated with loss to N.C. State |
| Purdue | Eliminated with two losses and not enough potential for quality wins |
| Utah | Eliminated with loss to USC |
Week 10:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Arizona | Eliminated with loss to USC |
| California | Eliminated with loss to UCLA |
| Michigan | Eliminated with three losses |
| Minnesota | Eliminated with three losses |
| Nebraska | Lost to two highest-ranked teams on schedule, and there are no real opportunities to add quality wins to overcome it |
| Wake Forest | Eliminated with three losses |
| Washington State | Eliminated with loss to Oregon |
Week 9:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Arizona State | Eliminated with loss to USC |
| Boise State | Eliminated with loss to BYU |
| Illinois | Eliminated with three losses |
| Michigan State | Eliminated with blowout loss to Iowa and not enough quality wins to overcome it |
| Nevada | Eliminated with no opportunities for wins of real quality in the MWC |
| N.C. State | Eliminated with three losses |
| Oregon State | Eliminated with loss to Washington State |
| Penn State | Eliminated with three losses |
| Rutgers | Eliminated with two losses and not enough quality win opportunities remaining on the schedule |
| San Diego State | Eliminated with loss to San Jose State |
| San Jose State | Eliminated with no opportunities for wins of real quality in the MWC |
| Stanford | Eliminated with loss to Oregon |
| UCLA | Eliminated with loss to Colorado |
| Virginia Tech | Eliminated with three losses |
Week 8:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Arkansas | Eliminated with three losses |
| Boston College | Eliminated with three losses |
| Colorado State | Eliminated with loss to Fresno State |
| Hawaii | Eliminated with loss to Wyoming |
| Iowa | Eliminated with two losses and not enough quality win opportunities remaining on the schedule |
| Kansas State | Eliminated with two bad losses–one nonconference loss to a bad team, and a blowout loss to a decent conference team |
| LSU | Eliminated with three losses |
| Missouri | Eliminated with three losses |
| New Mexico | Eliminated with loss to San Jose State |
| UNLV | Eliminated last week with loss to San Diego State |
Week 7:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Air Force | Eliminated with loss to San Jose State |
| Baylor | Eliminated with two losses and not enough chances for quality wins |
| Fresno State | Eliminated with loss to Hawaii |
| Iowa State | Eliminated with second loss, including loss to Louisiana. |
| Kentucky | Eliminated with loss to Army |
| SMU | Eliminated with loss to Cincinnati |
| South Carolina | Eliminated with third loss |
| Tennessee | Eliminated with third loss |
| Utah State | Eliminated with loss to Boise State |
| West Virginia | Eliminated with second loss to Texas Tech and not enough quality wins remaining |
| Wyoming | Eliminated with loss to Nevada |
Week 6:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Georgia Tech | Eliminated with third loss |
| Houston | Eliminated with loss to BYU |
| Pittsburgh | Pitt has games remaining against Notre Dame, Clemson, and Virginia Tech. This could be a very impressive resume, but the third loss still necessitates elimination |
| Virginia | Eliminated with third loss |
Week 5:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Coastal Carolina | No chance of earning a marquee win of enough quality to impress the selection committee |
| Florida State | Eliminated with third loss |
| Louisiana | Eliminated with loss to Coastal Carolina |
| Louisville | Eliminated with third loss |
| Mississippi | Eliminated with losses to the best two teams on its schedule and no real path to picking up quality wins to counter two losses |
| Mississippi State | Eliminated with two ugly losses, even with chances at big wins upcoming |
| Syracuse | Eliminated with third loss |
| Temple | Eliminated with loss to Navy |
| TCU | Eliminated with two losses and no real path to enough quality wins to counteract them |
| Vanderbilt | Eliminated with third loss |
Week 4:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Florida Atlantic | No chance of winning any games with real quality |
| Louisiana Tech | Eliminated with loss to Marshall |
| Memphis | Eliminated with loss to SMU |
| Old Dominion | Too late to get any attention even if it reverses decision to cancel season |
| Rice | No chance of winning any games with real quality |
| Texas Tech | Really ugly win over Houston Baptist. Loss to Texas plus Big 12 chaos means not enough chances for quality wins moving forward. |
| UCF | Eliminated with loss to Tulsa |
| UTSA | Eliminated with loss to UAB |
Week 3:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Akron | Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games |
| Ball State | Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games |
| Bowling Green | Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games |
| Buffalo | Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games |
| Central Michigan | Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games |
| Eastern Michigan | Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games |
| Kent State | Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games |
| Miami (Oh) | Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games |
| Northern Illinois | Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games |
| Ohio | Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games |
| Toledo | Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games |
| Western Michigan | Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games |
| Army | Eliminated with loss to Cincinnati |
| ECU | Eliminated with loss to UCF |
| Florida International | Eliminated with loss to Liberty |
| Georgia Southern | Eliminated with loss to Louisiana |
| South Alabama | Should have been eliminated weeks ago with loss to Tulane but I missed it |
| Troy | Eliminated with loss to BYU |
| New Mexico State | Eliminated for not starting season yet |
| UConn | Eliminated for not starting season yet |
| UMass | Eliminated for not starting season yet |
Week 2:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Appalachian State | Eliminated with loss to Marshall |
| Duke | Lost two games, and not enough quality opponents remaining to overcome it. |
| Georgia State | Eliminated with loss to Louisiana |
| North Texas | Eliminated with loss to SMU |
| Tulane | Eliminated with loss to Navy |
| Tulsa | Eliminated with loss to Oklahoma State |
| South Florida | Eliminated with loss to Notre Dame |
Week 1:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Arkansas State | Eliminated with loss to Memphis |
| Charlotte | Eliminated with loss to Appalachian State |
| Kansas | Eliminated with ugly loss to Coastal Carolina, plus a weaker Big 12 overall. |
| Louisiana-Monroe | Eliminated with loss to Army |
| Middle Tennessee | Eliminated with loss to Army |
| Navy | Eliminated with loss to BYU |
| Southern Mississippi | Eliminated with loss to South Alabama |
| Texas State | Eliminated with loss to UTSA |
| UAB | Eliminated with loss to Miami (Fl) |
| UTEP | Eliminated with loss to Texas |
| Western Kentucky | Eliminated with loss to Louisville |
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