Week 14 CFP Eliminator: 11 Teams Remain, But Some Need Serious Chaos

As we approach the final weekend of the college football season, we have 11 teams still in the College Football Playoff race.

Of those 11, one–Alabama–has likely locked up a Playoff berth already. No matter what happens–barring something insane like a 35-point loss to Florida this weekend–the Crimson Tide will be in the Playoff.

Who will join Alabama, though? Notre Dame seems very likely to. I wouldn’t call the Fighting Irish a lock yet–certainly not as close to a lock as Alabama is–but they’re close. What about the final two spots? Of that, there are definitely possibilities. Nine teams are still in the mix, though most of those teams’ cases only get off the ground if Ohio State loses to Northwestern this weekend. Assuming the Buckeyes win that game, we will see several eliminations as soon as it goes final. Teams like Indiana, Florida, USC, and possibly even Texas A&M only have a real shot if there are two spots up for grabs, not just one.

I would also like to focus on a team not in the conversation. We eliminated the Iowa State Cyclones early in the year, due to a 17-point loss to Louisiana and a conference loss. I stand by that, too. The Cyclones might be ranked above several teams not yet eliminated, but Iowa State would need a miraculous amount of chaos to be seriously considered. After all, how can you put Iowa State in when the Cyclones lost to a team with an (at worst) equal record, whose only loss(es) would be to undefeated Coastal Carolina? Iowa State winning a Playoff would risk a legitimate claim to a split title if the winner of this week’s Sun Belt Championship Game also wins its bowl game. Iowa State’s path to the Playoff involves being literally the only option available. With Florida’s loss this week that went from “impossible” to “exceedingly unlikely,” but we do need to acknowledge the remote possibility.

In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams in this Twitter thread. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.

How it works

I need to start with two notes about the process.

1. The premise: My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only–if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to do it assuming a future loss.

Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are. Keep in mind that this season is a weird one, so I may have to replace my “judging by 2007” standard, but for now I can stick with it.

Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.

2. Group of 5 teams: My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory–crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance. This year I am somewhat going against this policy, but I’m holding to it as much as I can.

Week 14: Teams Remaining

We began the year with 130 teams, though not all have played this season. With three more eliminations this week, there are now 11 teams remaining in Playoff contention.

ACC:

Big 12:

Big Ten:

Pac 12:

SEC:

Independents: None

AAC: Cincinnati

Conference-USA: None

MAC: None

Mountain West: None

Sun Belt: None

Teams Eliminated

Week 14:

Week 13:

Week 12:

Week 11:

Week 10:

Week 9:

Week 8:

Week 7:

Week 6:

Week 5:

Week 4:

Week 3:

Week 2:

Week 1:

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