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Dec
07
2020

Week 13 CFP Eliminator: Lot of Teams Hoping for Chaos

As discussed in CFP Implications this week, there are three basic scenarios for the College Football Playoff right now. If Alabama, Notre Dame, and Ohio State win out, then there are only a few teams in real contention for that fourth spot. If Clemson or Florida wins out, all of the spots are locked up.

So, why does the Eliminator still have 14 teams left in contention? Well, because of the chaos scenarios. What if Alabama and Notre Dame win out in convincing fashion? And if Ohio State loses a game or falls out of contention somehow, the race for the final four spots can get wild. So, let’s get to the chart and see what each of those teams needs to be in the hunt.

In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams in this Twitter thread. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.

How it works

I need to start with two notes about the process.

1. The premise: My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only–if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to do it assuming a future loss.

Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are. Keep in mind that this season is a weird one, so I may have to replace my “judging by 2007” standard, but for now I can stick with it.

Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.

2. Group of 5 teams: My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory–crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance. This year I am somewhat going against this policy, but I’m holding to it as much as I can.

Week 13: Teams Remaining

We began the year with 130 teams, though not all have played this season. With five more eliminations this week, there are now 14 teams remaining in Playoff contention.

ACC:

Team: Notes:
Clemson ACC Championship Game against Notre Dame likely is win and in, lose and out.
Miami (Fl) Needs Clemson to lose in blowout fashion and other losses in front of them.
Notre Dame Beat Clemson in ACC Championship Game is a lock, but Notre Dame might be in anyway.

Big 12:

 

Team: Notes:
Oklahoma Needs to win out convincingly, and needs chaos in front of them.
Oklahoma State Eliminated with third loss.

Big Ten:

Team: Notes:
Indiana Will be eliminated unless we see massive chaos or Ohio State doesn’t play this weekend.
Northwestern Needs to play and beat Ohio State to get back in the picture.
Ohio State Likely two wins away from a Playoff berth.
Wisconsin Eliminated with two losses and not enough games to make up for them.

Pac 12:

Team: Notes:
Colorado Undefeated so far.
USC Likely needs games added to season.
Washington Eliminated with loss to Stanford.

SEC:

Team: Notes:
Alabama Likely one win away from a Playoff berth.
Florida Likely a lock for the Playoff by winning out.
Georgia Needs major chaos to be considered.
Texas A&M Possibly first in line to get in if Ohio State loses a game.

Independents: None

AAC: Cincinnati

Conference-USA: None

MAC: None

Mountain West: None

Sun Belt: None

Teams Eliminated

Week 13:

Team: Notes:
BYU Eliminated with loss to Coastal Carolina
Marshall Eliminated with loss to Rice
Oklahoma State Eliminated with third loss
Washington Eliminated with loss to Stanford
Wisconsin Eliminated with two losses and no path to getting enough meaningful wins to overcome them (even if the Badgers get to play Ohio State)

Week 12:

Team: Notes:
Auburn Eliminated with third loss
Maryland Eliminated with two losses and not enough potential for quality wins
North Carolina Eliminated with third loss
Oregon Eliminated with loss to Oregon State
Texas Eliminated with third loss

Week 11:

Team: Notes:
Liberty Eliminated with loss to N.C. State
Purdue Eliminated with two losses and not enough potential for quality wins
Utah Eliminated with loss to USC

Week 10:

Team: Notes:
Arizona Eliminated with loss to USC
California Eliminated with loss to UCLA
Michigan Eliminated with three losses
Minnesota Eliminated with three losses
Nebraska Lost to two highest-ranked teams on schedule, and there are no real opportunities to add quality wins to overcome it
Wake Forest Eliminated with three losses
Washington State Eliminated with loss to Oregon

Week 9:

Team: Notes:
Arizona State Eliminated with loss to USC
Boise State Eliminated with loss to BYU
Illinois Eliminated with three losses
Michigan State Eliminated with blowout loss to Iowa and not enough quality wins to overcome it
Nevada Eliminated with no opportunities for wins of real quality in the MWC
N.C. State Eliminated with three losses
Oregon State Eliminated with loss to Washington State
Penn State Eliminated with three losses
Rutgers Eliminated with two losses and not enough quality win opportunities remaining on the schedule
San Diego State Eliminated with loss to San Jose State
San Jose State Eliminated with no opportunities for wins of real quality in the MWC
Stanford Eliminated with loss to Oregon
UCLA Eliminated with loss to Colorado
Virginia Tech Eliminated with three losses

Week 8:

Team: Notes:
Arkansas Eliminated with three losses
Boston College Eliminated with three losses
Colorado State Eliminated with loss to Fresno State
Hawaii Eliminated with loss to Wyoming
Iowa Eliminated with two losses and not enough quality win opportunities remaining on the schedule
Kansas State Eliminated with two bad losses–one nonconference loss to a bad team, and a blowout loss to a decent conference team
LSU Eliminated with three losses
Missouri Eliminated with three losses
New Mexico Eliminated with loss to San Jose State
UNLV Eliminated last week with loss to San Diego State

Week 7:

Team: Notes:
Air Force Eliminated with loss to San Jose State
Baylor Eliminated with two losses and not enough chances for quality wins
Fresno State Eliminated with loss to Hawaii
Iowa State Eliminated with second loss, including loss to Louisiana.
Kentucky Eliminated with loss to Army
SMU Eliminated with loss to Cincinnati
South Carolina Eliminated with third loss
Tennessee Eliminated with third loss
Utah State Eliminated with loss to Boise State
West Virginia Eliminated with second loss to Texas Tech and not enough quality wins remaining
Wyoming Eliminated with loss to Nevada

Week 6:

Team: Notes:
Georgia Tech Eliminated with third loss
Houston Eliminated with loss to BYU
Pittsburgh Pitt has games remaining against Notre Dame, Clemson, and Virginia Tech. This could be a very impressive resume, but the third loss still necessitates elimination
Virginia Eliminated with third loss

Week 5:

Team: Notes:
Coastal Carolina No chance of earning a marquee win of enough quality to impress the selection committee
Florida State Eliminated with third loss
Louisiana Eliminated with loss to Coastal Carolina
Louisville Eliminated with third loss
Mississippi Eliminated with losses to the best two teams on its schedule and no real path to picking up quality wins to counter two losses
Mississippi State Eliminated with two ugly losses, even with chances at big wins upcoming
Syracuse Eliminated with third loss
Temple Eliminated with loss to Navy
TCU Eliminated with two losses and no real path to enough quality wins to counteract them
Vanderbilt Eliminated with third loss

Week 4:

Team: Notes:
Florida Atlantic No chance of winning any games with real quality
Louisiana Tech Eliminated with loss to Marshall
Memphis Eliminated with loss to SMU
Old Dominion Too late to get any attention even if it reverses decision to cancel season
Rice No chance of winning any games with real quality
Texas Tech Really ugly win over Houston Baptist. Loss to Texas plus Big 12 chaos means not enough chances for quality wins moving forward.
UCF Eliminated with loss to Tulsa
UTSA Eliminated with loss to UAB

Week 3:

Team: Notes:
Akron Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games
Ball State Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games
Bowling Green Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games
Buffalo Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games
Central Michigan Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games
Eastern Michigan Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games
Kent State Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games
Miami (Oh) Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games
Northern Illinois Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games
Ohio Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games
Toledo Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games
Western Michigan Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games
Army Eliminated with loss to Cincinnati
ECU Eliminated with loss to UCF
Florida International Eliminated with loss to Liberty
Georgia Southern Eliminated with loss to Louisiana
South Alabama Should have been eliminated weeks ago with loss to Tulane but I missed it
Troy Eliminated with loss to BYU
New Mexico State Eliminated for not starting season yet
UConn Eliminated for not starting season yet
UMass Eliminated for not starting season yet

Week 2:

Team: Notes:
Appalachian State Eliminated with loss to Marshall
Duke Lost two games, and not enough quality opponents remaining to overcome it.
Georgia State Eliminated with loss to Louisiana
North Texas Eliminated with loss to SMU
Tulane Eliminated with loss to Navy
Tulsa Eliminated with loss to Oklahoma State
South Florida Eliminated with loss to Notre Dame

Week 1:

Team: Notes:
Arkansas State Eliminated with loss to Memphis
Charlotte Eliminated with loss to Appalachian State
Kansas Eliminated with ugly loss to Coastal Carolina, plus a weaker Big 12 overall.
Louisiana-Monroe Eliminated with loss to Army
Middle Tennessee Eliminated with loss to Army
Navy Eliminated with loss to BYU
Southern Mississippi Eliminated with loss to South Alabama
Texas State Eliminated with loss to UTSA
UAB Eliminated with loss to Miami (Fl)
UTEP Eliminated with loss to Texas
Western Kentucky Eliminated with loss to Louisville

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