As I discussed in CFP Implications this week, we can start to pin down some scenarios. All of those scenarios right now assume that Alabama and Ohio State win out, and that Notre Dame wins out until at least the ACC Championship Game.
If Clemson and Florida each win out, we could be looking at five teams for four spots. That makes a problem for the committee, but very little trouble for the Eliminator.
Of course, the Eliminator can’t assume anything. So while the likely scenario gives us a maximum eight teams in real contention (Alabama, Notre Dame, Clemson, Ohio State, Florida, Texas A&M, Cincinnati, and maybe Oklahoma) we still have three more weeks of college football to watch. Anything can happen in this sport, so we can’t yet eliminate the teams that are rooting for chaos.
In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams in this Twitter thread. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.
How it works
I need to start with two notes about the process.
1. The premise: My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only–if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to do it assuming a future loss.
Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are. Keep in mind that this season is a weird one, so I may have to replace my “judging by 2007” standard, but for now I can stick with it.
Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.
2. Group of 5 teams: My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory–crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance. This year I am somewhat going against this policy, but I’m holding to it as much as I can.
Week 12: Teams Remaining
As the season goes on, I’ll add more detailed notes by each team explaining why a questionable team has not yet been eliminated. For now, though, we’ll start with just the list. We began the year with 130 teams, though not all have played this season. With five eliminations this week, there are now 19 teams remaining in Playoff contention.
ACC:
| Team: | Notes: |
|---|---|
| Clemson | Loss to Notre Dame but still very likely controls its own destiny. |
| Miami (Fl) | Loss to Clemson hurts, and missing games make path much more narrow. |
| Notre Dame | Undefeated so far. |
Big 12:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Oklahoma | On the brink of elimination, but looks strong at the moment. |
| Oklahoma State | Essentially eliminated already. |
Big Ten:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Indiana | Will be eliminated unless we see massive chaos or Ohio State loses the division. |
| Ohio State | Undefeated so far. |
| Wisconsin | Will be eliminated unless games added to the season. |
Pac 12:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Colorado | Undefeated so far. |
| USC | Likely needs games added to season. |
| Washington | Eliminated unless games are added to season. |
SEC:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Alabama | Undefeated so far. |
| Florida | Little margin for error, but prospects look good after win over Georgia. |
| Georgia | On the brink of elimination. |
| Texas A&M | Loss to Alabama but good chance at a strong resume. |
Independents: BYU
AAC: Cincinnati
Conference-USA: Marshall
MAC: None
Mountain West: None
Sun Belt: None
Teams Eliminated
Week 12:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Auburn | Eliminated with third loss |
| Maryland | Eliminated with two losses and not enough potential for quality wins |
| North Carolina | Eliminated with third loss |
| Oregon | Eliminated with loss to Oregon State |
| Texas | Eliminated with third loss |
Week 11:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Liberty | Eliminated with loss to N.C. State |
| Purdue | Eliminated with two losses and not enough potential for quality wins |
| Utah | Eliminated with loss to USC |
Week 10:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Arizona | Eliminated with loss to USC |
| California | Eliminated with loss to UCLA |
| Michigan | Eliminated with three losses |
| Minnesota | Eliminated with three losses |
| Nebraska | Lost to two highest-ranked teams on schedule, and there are no real opportunities to add quality wins to overcome it |
| Wake Forest | Eliminated with three losses |
| Washington State | Eliminated with loss to Oregon |
Week 9:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Arizona State | Eliminated with loss to USC |
| Boise State | Eliminated with loss to BYU |
| Illinois | Eliminated with three losses |
| Michigan State | Eliminated with blowout loss to Iowa and not enough quality wins to overcome it |
| Nevada | Eliminated with no opportunities for wins of real quality in the MWC |
| N.C. State | Eliminated with three losses |
| Oregon State | Eliminated with loss to Washington State |
| Penn State | Eliminated with three losses |
| Rutgers | Eliminated with two losses and not enough quality win opportunities remaining on the schedule |
| San Diego State | Eliminated with loss to San Jose State |
| San Jose State | Eliminated with no opportunities for wins of real quality in the MWC |
| Stanford | Eliminated with loss to Oregon |
| UCLA | Eliminated with loss to Colorado |
| Virginia Tech | Eliminated with three losses |
Week 8:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Arkansas | Eliminated with three losses |
| Boston College | Eliminated with three losses |
| Colorado State | Eliminated with loss to Fresno State |
| Hawaii | Eliminated with loss to Wyoming |
| Iowa | Eliminated with two losses and not enough quality win opportunities remaining on the schedule |
| Kansas State | Eliminated with two bad losses–one nonconference loss to a bad team, and a blowout loss to a decent conference team |
| LSU | Eliminated with three losses |
| Missouri | Eliminated with three losses |
| New Mexico | Eliminated with loss to San Jose State |
| UNLV | Eliminated last week with loss to San Diego State |
Week 7:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Air Force | Eliminated with loss to San Jose State |
| Baylor | Eliminated with two losses and not enough chances for quality wins |
| Fresno State | Eliminated with loss to Hawaii |
| Iowa State | Eliminated with second loss, including loss to Louisiana. |
| Kentucky | Eliminated with loss to Army |
| SMU | Eliminated with loss to Cincinnati |
| South Carolina | Eliminated with third loss |
| Tennessee | Eliminated with third loss |
| Utah State | Eliminated with loss to Boise State |
| West Virginia | Eliminated with second loss to Texas Tech and not enough quality wins remaining |
| Wyoming | Eliminated with loss to Nevada |
Week 6:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Georgia Tech | Eliminated with third loss |
| Houston | Eliminated with loss to BYU |
| Pittsburgh | Pitt has games remaining against Notre Dame, Clemson, and Virginia Tech. This could be a very impressive resume, but the third loss still necessitates elimination |
| Virginia | Eliminated with third loss |
Week 5:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Coastal Carolina | No chance of earning a marquee win of enough quality to impress the selection committee |
| Florida State | Eliminated with third loss |
| Louisiana | Eliminated with loss to Coastal Carolina |
| Louisville | Eliminated with third loss |
| Mississippi | Eliminated with losses to the best two teams on its schedule and no real path to picking up quality wins to counter two losses |
| Mississippi State | Eliminated with two ugly losses, even with chances at big wins upcoming |
| Syracuse | Eliminated with third loss |
| Temple | Eliminated with loss to Navy |
| TCU | Eliminated with two losses and no real path to enough quality wins to counteract them |
| Vanderbilt | Eliminated with third loss |
Week 4:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Florida Atlantic | No chance of winning any games with real quality |
| Louisiana Tech | Eliminated with loss to Marshall |
| Memphis | Eliminated with loss to SMU |
| Old Dominion | Too late to get any attention even if it reverses decision to cancel season |
| Rice | No chance of winning any games with real quality |
| Texas Tech | Really ugly win over Houston Baptist. Loss to Texas plus Big 12 chaos means not enough chances for quality wins moving forward. |
| UCF | Eliminated with loss to Tulsa |
| UTSA | Eliminated with loss to UAB |
Week 3:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Akron | Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games |
| Ball State | Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games |
| Bowling Green | Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games |
| Buffalo | Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games |
| Central Michigan | Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games |
| Eastern Michigan | Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games |
| Kent State | Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games |
| Miami (Oh) | Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games |
| Northern Illinois | Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games |
| Ohio | Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games |
| Toledo | Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games |
| Western Michigan | Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games |
| Army | Eliminated with loss to Cincinnati |
| ECU | Eliminated with loss to UCF |
| Florida International | Eliminated with loss to Liberty |
| Georgia Southern | Eliminated with loss to Louisiana |
| South Alabama | Should have been eliminated weeks ago with loss to Tulane but I missed it |
| Troy | Eliminated with loss to BYU |
| New Mexico State | Eliminated for not starting season yet |
| UConn | Eliminated for not starting season yet |
| UMass | Eliminated for not starting season yet |
Week 2:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Appalachian State | Eliminated with loss to Marshall |
| Duke | Lost two games, and not enough quality opponents remaining to overcome it. |
| Georgia State | Eliminated with loss to Louisiana |
| North Texas | Eliminated with loss to SMU |
| Tulane | Eliminated with loss to Navy |
| Tulsa | Eliminated with loss to Oklahoma State |
| South Florida | Eliminated with loss to Notre Dame |
Week 1:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Arkansas State | Eliminated with loss to Memphis |
| Charlotte | Eliminated with loss to Appalachian State |
| Kansas | Eliminated with ugly loss to Coastal Carolina, plus a weaker Big 12 overall. |
| Louisiana-Monroe | Eliminated with loss to Army |
| Middle Tennessee | Eliminated with loss to Army |
| Navy | Eliminated with loss to BYU |
| Southern Mississippi | Eliminated with loss to South Alabama |
| Texas State | Eliminated with loss to UTSA |
| UAB | Eliminated with loss to Miami (Fl) |
| UTEP | Eliminated with loss to Texas |
| Western Kentucky | Eliminated with loss to Louisville |
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