Most years the college football world runs gets ahead of itself anointing the top teams too early in the season. Chaos always comes, and the elites always trip up eventually. Top teams do make their way through the seasons, but we very often have a different set of top teams in Week 12 than we do in Week 1. That’s the way it’s supposed to happen, and part of the beauty of the sport.
This year, for whatever reason, it really seems as though the top teams are as unbeatable as we expected. Part of that is the competition, and part of that is the teams themselves. Yes, at the start of the year Clemson was considered among the essentially-unbeatables. Now, as we approach the end of the season, Clemson has been replaced by Notre Dame–though the Tigers are still very much in the Playoff picture.
So, we have three teams at the top of the game. Alabama looks completely unbeatable. The defense might not be Saban’s best over the last decade, but it’s pretty close, and it’s one of the best offenses Alabama has had. Alabama has played a bunch of good teams already, and no one has come within two scores. Texas A&M and Georgia each got beaten down by the Crimson Tide. Neither LSU nor Arkansas looks capable of putting up a fight––and, if we’re being honest, Florida probably isn’t in the same league when the SEC Championship Game comes either.
Ohio State has only played a few games, and the Buckeyes don’t quite look like their usual dominant selves. Still, after beating Indiana and Penn State (before the Nittany Lions threw away their season), there are no real threats left on Ohio State’s schedule. Northwestern showed it’s not in the same league last week, and Wisconsin won’t qualify for the Big Ten Championship Game. (Though if Ohio State only plays five games, the 5-0 Buckeyes could meet the 4-1 Badgers in the final game of the season instead of the Big Ten Championship Game.)
Notre Dame, meanwhile, has survived its biggest tests of the season without too much of a scare. Clemson is of course a potential major challenge in the ACC Championship Game, but neither of the Irish’s remaining regular-season opponents (Syracuse and Wake Forest) look to be much of a challenge.
That leaves us with three teams very likely to lock in Playoff bids. (Perhaps next week we’ll discuss what happens if any of these teams fall out of contention somehow.) Of course, the Playoff has four teams, and someone has to get that fourth spot. So now the conversation has to turn to who will get that fourth spot.
Clemson and Florida
The Tigers and Gators are in the same boat. Each is very likely looking at a Playoff bid if it wins out, though of course things get stick if both win out. If both teams win out, we’re looking at five teams for four spots. I have no idea who would get left out in that case, though we’ll compare resumes before the Conference Championship Games if this scenario is still alive in two weeks. If only one wins out, though, we’re looking at four teams–Alabama, Notre Dame, Ohio State, and whoever wins out.
Texas A&M
Right now, the Aggies are in the best position to get that fourth spot, though they don’t control their own destiny. Texas A&M needs to see Alabama and Notre Dame win out, but if that happens, the Aggies are in pretty solid shape. Of course, Texas A&M has its toughest remaining test in a road trip against Auburn this week, and the Aggies have to survive games against Tennessee and (likely a makeup) against Ole Miss. Do that, though, and the Aggies are in good position, as long as someone behind doesn’t jump them.
Oklahoma
The Sooners are very much still alive, though the resume is short. Oklahoma looks dominant when it’s beating teams. The Sooners have two losses, one of which is pretty bad for the resume (Kansas State). On the other hand, their wins are impressive and growing. Will the selection committee reward a Big 12 champion Oklahoma team if it blows out its final three opponents the same way it has been doing recently? Can 9-2 Oklahoma jump Texas A&M? Or Cincinnati? I don’t know, but the odds aren’t as bad as they were recently.
Cincinnati
It’s time to discuss the Bearcats. They might be last in line among the teams on this list (we’ll see between them and Oklahoma, but it could get close). Cincinnati has two games remaining, likely both against a ranked Tulsa team. (Tulsa won’t be ranked with two more losses to Cincinnati, but the committee is able to recognize the value anyway.) That likely won’t be enough to jump the Bearcats over Texas A&M (though it’s possible it could), and certainly won’t get them over Florida or Clemson if either wins out, but it has a chance to keep Cincinnati ahead of Oklahoma, and certainly the rest of the teams behind the Bearcats–yes, even an undefeated USC.
Everybody else
Our Eliminator still has 19 teams alive. On top of the eight we saw above, there are 11 more still alive. However, all of those teams require serious chaos ahead of them, including scenarios that don’t involve Alabama, Notre Dame, and Ohio State winning out. The teams are still alive, but at this point it doesn’t look like it’s happening.
Week 13 Implications
Friday’s has a Sun Belt battle between Louisiana and Appalachian State. The Ragin’ Cajuns beat Iowa State to open the season, so a Louisiana loss would hurt Oklahoma’s resume.
Noon Saturday is the biggest time slot for Playoff contenders. Ohio State travels to Michigan State (as of now, at least) and Texas A&M visits Auburn. Oklahoma State will try to keep its long-shot hopes alive with a trip to TCU, while Texas can make Oklahoma’s loss to Kansas State look even worse.
In the afternoon, Notre Dame hosts Syracuse and Florida visits Tennessee. Meanwhile, Indiana and Wisconsin face off in a battle of likely Big Ten divisional runners-up, though both are looking for New York Six bids. An Indiana win is better for Ohio State’s resume, though a Wisconsin win is probably better for the Big Ten’s standing in general.
Tulsa travels to Navy to keep its ranked season alive and clinch an AAC Championship Game berth. Cincinnati does not want to see Tulsa lose this game, that’s for sure. Meanwhile, Georgia tries to keep its slim hopes alive against Vanderbilt.
At night, Clemson visits Virginia Tech as the Tigers try to essentially clinch (depending on how games are rescheduled for next week) an ACC Championship Game rematch against Notre Dame (assuming the Irish win). Alabama travels to LSU, though given how the Tigers played against Texas A&M last week, it’s hard to see this being too tight. Lastly, Oklahoma hosts Baylor as the Sooners make sure not to lose their slim Playoff hopes.
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