In a week where several Playoff contenders once again missed games, the Big Ten took center stage. The undefeated teams in each division faced off, with Northwestern stopping Wisconsin and Ohio State surviving Indiana’s comeback attempt.
What does this mean for the Big Ten in terms of Playoff bids? Well, two bids doesn’t look to be on the table at the moment. Perhaps if Northwestern and Ohio State both enter the Big Ten Championship Game undefeated, a very tight Northwestern win could leave the conference with two teams in the discussion. Playing only nine games, though (and Ohio State has already had one canceled due to COVID), means that the conference teams likely won’t get serious consideration unless the other Playoff contenders collapse down the stretch.
Speaking of other Playoff contenders, we are seeing more and more miss games. Clemson, Florida, and Texas A&M all had games canceled or postponed this week due to COVID. As I’ve mentioned before in this space, usually it’s the number of losses that has been the starting point for the selection committee’s ranking. It’s not clear how true that will remain this year, especially as teams that don’t win conference championships–like Texas A&M–continue to have games canceled. It’s a lot easier for the committee to put a 9-1 Texas A&M team with a loss to Alabama into the Playoff than it would be if that same Texas A&M team is only 6-1 or 7-1.
Similarly, Clemson is likely in good shape if the Tigers win out. They would avenge their loss to Notre Dame, and the committee would likely (not definitely, but likely) value the ACC Championship Game more than the regular-season meeting. But if Clemson has a few games canceled, its trip to the ACC Championship Game could be in doubt. Then what happens? Would the committee take a 7-1 Clemson team with a loss to Notre Dame? What if Miami wins out and beats Notre Dame? Then the ACC would have three one-loss teams with a circular head-to-head. We’re getting way ahead of ourselves really thinking about it, but there would be some disadvantage to being the team that missed the most games in the process.
Yes, the trend of 2020 has been that we just don’t know what will happen. We don’t know how the committee will judge, and we don’t even know what it will be judging on. We’ll get our first major hints Tuesday night, though, when we see the committee’s first rankings and hopefully hear some explanations for them.
BYU vs Cincinnati: Pros and cons
Rumors abound about a potential showdown on December 5th between BYU and Cincinnati. After the American Athletic Conference re-worked its schedule from now until the end of the year, Cincinnati has a bye that week. BYU already has a bye that week. So, what are the pros and cons (from the teams’ perspectives, not the fans’) of playing that game.
For Cincinnati, it’s obvious. The pro is that a win gets you seriously into the College Football Playoff conversation. Not only would it knock out a potential competitor, but it would give the Bearcats a resume-defining win that most Power 5 teams don’t even have. 11-0 Cincinnati compared to 9-2 Oklahoma for the final Playoff spot? Not positive how the committee would go on that, especially given how Oklahoma has been dominating teams recently. But 9-2 Oklahoma compared to 12-0 Cincinnati with a win over BYU? Cincinnati is getting that spot, no question.
There aren’t really downsides for Cincinnati either. A loss to BYU, as long as it’s close, won’t drop the Bearcats behind Marshall or Coastal Carolina. Cincinnati would still be two wins away (assuming it beats Temple this week) from a New Years’ Six Bowl. I guess perhaps the team might worry that playing BYU would signal it’s getting ahead of itself and might lead to disappointment or complacency against Tulsa the following week, or in the ACC Championship Game. Still, that doesn’t seem like a particularly major concern.
What about BYU? Well, the pros are certainly similar to Cincinnati’s. Also, considering that Cincinnati will likely be ahead of BYU in the committee’s rankings (if not this week then by season’s end), the Cougars need someone to beat the Bearcats anyway, and who better to do that than themselves?
As far as cons for BYU, here things aren’t as simple. BYU is not eligible for the automatic at-large bid, so the Cougars need to rely on being in the top eight or nine in the committee’s final rankings to get an NY6 Bowl. If undefeated, the Cougars would likely feel safe about that spot. With a loss to Cincinnati, though, it gets a little murkier. Top 10 is probably still likely, as long as the loss is close, but there’s definitely a higher risk of falling out of the NY6 with a loss in this game. Is that worth it for the Cougars? It’s basically a small (but not tiny) chance to missing the NY6 entirely, versus a somewhat decent chance of making the Playoff. If I’m a college football coach or Athletic Director, I think that’s a risk I take every time.
Week 12 Implications
Thanksgiving week is always one of the most spread-out and best college football weekends, and this year will hopefully be no different. Only two games have been postponed or canceled so far, and while we have fewer Friday games than in a usual Thanksgiving weekend, there are still meaningful games up and down the schedule.
Friday kicks off at noon with Iowa State and Texas battling. The Cyclones are already out of the Playoff picture due to the nonconference loss to Louisiana, but this has real impact on the Big 12 conference race. Following that, Notre Dame faces one of its biggest remaining tests of the season with a trip to North Carolina. An Irish win would keep the ACC in serious position for two Playoff teams, while a Notre Dame loss all but guarantees just one.
On Saturday, Indiana hosts Maryland. The Hoosiers winning out would essentially guarantee them a New Years’ Six bid, and it would also keep Ohio State’s resume strong should the Buckeyes drop a game.
Tulsa travels to Houston. The Golden Hurricane have pulled miracles out of their hat all season long, and winning and staying ranked is important to both the AAC as a whole and to Cincinnati’s Playoff hopes. The same is true of SMU’s trip to ECU and Memphis’ trip to Navy, as the Mustings and/or the Tigers could possibly sneak back into the rankings by the end of the season if they win out.
The Iron Bowl is usually exciting, but this one won’t have much Playoff impact as Alabama can afford a loss and Auburn needs a few miracles to be back in the picture. At the same time, though, Pitt will try to derail Clemson’s Playoff hopes, while USC and Colorado battle for control of the Pac 12 South.
At night, LSU travels to Texas A&M. The Aggies want to hold on to their high ranking and Playoff hopes, while LSU is looking to reverse a season that has been trending poorly from the opening game. Also, Oklahoma tries to keep its (and the Big 12’s in general) Playoff hopes alive with a trip to West Virginia. The Sooners need to continue to win by blowout margins to truly stay in the Playoff picture.
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