Week 11 CFP Eliminator: Few Eliminations, but Several Teams not Really in Contention

One of the hallmarks of my Eliminator series is that I never want to un-eliminate a team. Some years, that leads to waiting a few extra weeks to eliminate questionable teams. This year, though, it’s causing a serious problem.

I have 24 teams still alive, and barring some surprising upsets, there’s no real path to a quick elimination for them. Because we have no idea what the committee will actually do or how it will judge teams that play fewer or more games than others, I can’t eliminate teams yet. Perhaps when we see the committee’s first rankings and hear what they think, we can start to eliminate some of these teams, though I’ll probably wait a few weeks on several of them anyway.

The front end of the Playoff picture is clear. We’re looking at a bid for the ACC champion, the SEC champion, and the Big Ten champion, assuming they’re undefeated or have one loss. The potential fourth team can get crazy, though, and if we see some chaos in those three conferences down the stretch, who knows what the committee could be left with?

So that leaves the Eliminator where it is now. Three teams knocked out this week, and a few more that aren’t honestly in the picture but haven’t been eliminated yet (like Marshall, Georgia, Texas, Oklahoma State).

In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams in this Twitter thread. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.

How it works

I need to start with two notes about the process.

1. The premise: My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only–if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to do it assuming a future loss.

Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are. Keep in mind that this season is a weird one, so I may have to replace my “judging by 2007” standard, but for now I can stick with it.

Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.

2. Group of 5 teams: My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory–crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance. This year I am somewhat going against this policy, but I’m holding to it as much as I can.

Week 11: Teams Remaining

As the season goes on, I’ll add more detailed notes by each team explaining why a questionable team has not yet been eliminated. For now, though, we’ll start with just the list. We began the year with 130 teams, though not all have played this season. With three eliminations this week, there are now 24 teams remaining in Playoff contention.

ACC:

Big 12:

Big Ten:

Pac 12:

SEC:

Independents: BYU

AAC: Cincinnati

Conference-USA: Marshall

MAC: None

Mountain West: None

Sun Belt: None

Teams Eliminated

Week 11:

Week 10:

Week 9:

Week 8:

Week 7:

Week 6:

Week 5:

Week 4:

Week 3:

Week 2:

Week 1:

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