Week 10 CFP Eliminator: Uncertainty about Canceled Games

This week has presented me with some interesting dilemmas, some that are unique even for this year. Let’s look at Maryland as a case study.

The Maryland Terrapins are 2-1 with a blowout loss to Northwestern. Their only potential path to the Playoff remaining is winning the Big Ten Championship Game, with a win over Ohio State in the process. However, due to positive cases and quarantines in the Maryland program, the game against Ohio State was canceled this week. The Big Ten left no room for making up games when it started in October, so the game has been declared a no contest and won’t be made up.

That should make things easy, right? No chance at beating Ohio State, no Playoff opportunity for Maryland.

However, with COVID-19 cases rising nationwide and more games being canceled in recent weeks than earlier in the season, we have to acknowledge the possibility that weeks will be added to the season. If too many games are canceled or missed, there is a very real chance that Selection Sunday and the Playoffs get pushed off. It is not a high chance, no. But there is a chance, and as long as there’s a chance I’m left with an Eliminator quandary.

I have one principle in doing the Eliminator: I never want to un-eliminate a team. On the other hand, the odds of weeks being added to the season are incredibly low. For now, I will defer to not eliminating those teams where a canceled game is the only reason the team is not eliminated. But I don’t know how long I can hold to that. (Also, in the case of Maryland, I guess it is possible that the Ohio State game can be rescheduled on short notice if both Ohio State’s and Maryland’s opponents have to cancel in the same week.)

The same discussion as above applies to Utah. The Utes have had their first two games of the season canceled. With only a chance at 5-0, they won’t make the Playoff. But if more games can be added, Utah could have a chance.

In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams in this Twitter thread. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.

How it works

I need to start with two notes about the process.

1. The premise: My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only–if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to do it assuming a future loss.

Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are. Keep in mind that this season is a weird one, so I may have to replace my “judging by 2007” standard, but for now I can stick with it.

Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.

2. Group of 5 teams: My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory–crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance. This year I am somewhat going against this policy, but I’m holding to it as much as I can.

Week 9: Teams Remaining

As the season goes on, I’ll add more detailed notes by each team explaining why a questionable team has not yet been eliminated. For now, though, we’ll start with just the list. We began the year with 130 teams, though not all have played this season. There are now 27 teams remaining in Playoff contention, though that number includes Marshall and Liberty, who will not receive serious consideration no matter what.

ACC:

Big 12:

Big Ten:

Pac 12:

SEC:

Independents: BYU, Liberty

AAC: Cincinnati

Conference-USA: Marshall

MAC: None

Mountain West: None

Sun Belt: None

Teams Eliminated

Week 10:

Week 9:

Week 8:

Week 7:

Week 6:

Week 5:

Week 4:

Week 3:

Week 2:

Week 1:

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