(Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images)
Since early in the year, it’s been obvious that there would likely be one of the four College Football Playoff bids up for grabs. The SEC is almost certainly getting a bid. The ACC is almost certainly getting a bid–we had assumed that one would be Clemson, but now Notre Dame has the inside track. The Big Ten looks very strong to get a bid, almost certainly Ohio State. But that’s only three. The Big 12 has been dropping games and eating itself up since Week 1. The Pac 12 is starting its season off now, and it’s not clear how much those teams will be considered. So, who gets the fourth bid?
As the year has gone on, we’ve been back and forth on who has the inside track. For a while, it was no one, to wait as the season developed. Texas A&M has looked strong as the year has gone on, and the Aggies could have potential at 9-1. As could Oklahoma State if it wins out, or any undefeated Pac 12 team.
Now, though, through the perfect storm, the ACC is in prime position to earn two bids to the CFP.
Notre Dame defeated Clemson in a classic battle in double-overtime, and the whole country saw. The committee will have to decide just how much to weight the win over a Clemson team without Trevor Lawrence, and missing several defensive starters. We’ll find out how that works. There is a very strong claim that Clemson shouldn’t get a pass on that–after all, the Tigers didn’t struggle on offense at all. Still, the talking point is strong and it will be made.
More importantly, though, it gives Clemson the chance to avenge this loss. If both the Fighting Irish and Tigers win out, then the pair will meet again in the ACC Championship Game. If Clemson wins that rematch–with or without Trevor Lawrence, honestly–then it will be all but impossible to keep either team out of the Playoff.
There’s still plenty of time left in the season, and nothing is guaranteed. With COVID cases rising nationwide and games being canceled all over the country, we could definitely end up seeing part of the season delayed or changes made. As has been true all season long, everything is a bit up in the air. A delay in the bowls or the season shouldn’t shock us.
There are definitely games left on the schedule for either Clemson or Notre Dame (or both) to lose. And if that happens, we’ll have to take another look at who is on track for the fourth CFP bid. Right now, though, there is a clear inside lane, and it belongs to the ACC.
Texas A&M moving up
If not for Notre Dame’s upset of Clemson, the biggest Playoff-related story would have been Florida’s upset of Georgia. Until later Saturday evening, that win gave Texas A&M, with its own over Florida, the best win in the country so far, resume-wise.
Two weeks ago, Cincinnati jumped over Texas A&M in the national polls. The Bearcats look strong and they are blowing out solid teams. Well, after Florida beat Georgia and Texas A&M blew out South Carolina, the Aggies (and the Gators) jumped back over the Bearcats. Florida has a clear path to the Playoff–if the Gators win out, they’re in. And that, complete with a SEC Championship Game win over Alabama, would push Florida into the Top 4, superseding Texas A&M’s head-to-head win.
If, however, Florida falls to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game, the Gators will be out of the picture. That leaves a one-loss Texas A&M with a very strong resume. The Aggies looked in strong position, until Notre Dame took the inside track from them a few hours later. Still, if Notre Dame and/or Clemson slip up, a 9-1 Texas A&M team potentially has a strong case.
Where does that leave Cincinnati and maybe BYU? These two hopefuls are still very much in the picture. They always needed a bit of help. Now they just need more, but it’s still not a ton.
What about the Pac 12? I’ll discuss that conference in this week’s Eliminator piece, and we’ll focus on the Big 12 again next week.
Week 10 Implications
There’s plenty of football Wednesday and Thursday, though not much will impact the CFP race (I guess that BYU will be rooting for Boise State to keep winning).
Miami tries to stay in the CFP race on Saturday at noon, and if the Hurricanes keep winning it gives Clemson a potentially much-needed win. Wake Forest and North Carolina play an elimination game, though both teams are basically out of it. At the same time, Army travels to Tulane. Army lost to Cincinnati early in the year (and might play BYU; their game was postponed), so Army continuing to win and be ranked is good for the Bearcats.
Contenders travel on the road all throughout the day. Georgia’s trip to Missouri is important to keeping Florida’s (and Alabama’s) win over the Bulldogs high-quality. Alabama, Texas A&M, and Notre Dame travel to LSU, Tennessee, and Boston College, respectively. (The Alabama-LSU game is not yet canceled, though there is a chance it will be with a COVID outbreak in the LSU team.) On the other hand, Wisconsin at Michigan is back on, and the Badgers need every win they can get after missing two games.
Northwestern and Purdue face off in a battle of undefeated teams. Purdue’s game against Wisconsin has already been canceled, so the Boilermakers are going to be short on quality wins. On the other hand, they get to face Indiana at the end of the season, so Purdue potentially has the chance for a quality win late in the year.
SMU travels to Tulsa, and Cincinnati should be very interested (but conflicted) about the game. A Tulsa win gives the Bearcats a shot at having two ranked conference wins to end the year, but an SMU win makes Cincinnati’s best win look that much stronger. And, of course, don’t forget the Pac 12 making its way through its season.
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