From early in the season, when the Big 12 was clearly struggling, I’ve been mentioning the AAC somewhere in a group of teams in line for a Playoff bid. As the season has progressed, it became obvious that Cincinnati was the only AAC team in the picture. Still, with tons of teams playing and all sorts of possibilities around, it was very premature to discuss Cincinnati as a serious Playoff contender.
Well, after eight full weeks (plus an expanded “Week 0”) of play, it’s no longer premature. There are seven weeks remaining in the regular season, it’s no longer premature. For the first time in the College Football Playoff era, a team from outside the Power 5 conferences is a legitimate Playoff contender at the season’s halfway point. We’re not talking about a longshot, and we’re not talking about a team backing in. Cincinnati is a bona fide contender with a path to the Playoff. So let’s map it out.
Cincinnati’s Path to the Playoff
I have never had the opportunity to do this before this early in the season. A few years, late in the season I discussed whether UCF had a path to back into a Playoff spot if teams lost like crazy. I’ve discussed whether we could see enough chaos to give a Group of 5 team a chance. I haven’t yet discussed a way for a Group of 5 team to earn a Playoff spot. Until now.
In general, the standard assumption has been that a Group of 5 team can only jump a one-loss Power 5 team if that team is very weak–either a poor schedule or lots of close games against bad teams. This year, though, that’s not quite the story. Cincinnati has already jumped Texas A&M, and the only one-loss team currently ahead of the Bearcats is Georgia. Now, Florida will almost certainly jump the Bearcats if it wins this week, but I’m not sure Cincinnati has much to worry about from Texas A&M. A win over Florida wasn’t enough to keep the Aggies ahead of the Bearcats; what remains on the Texas A&M schedule to jump back? The season-ending game against (a likely three-loss) Auburn? Maybe?
Cincinnati, for its own part, needs to keep winning convincingly. Given what the Bearcats just did to Memphis, that seems not to be an issue. Cincinnati has three remaining games against teams that could impress the committee: Houston, UCF, and Tulsa. The Bearcats also have two impressive wins already, over Army and SMU. Don’t sleep on the December game against Tulsa. Tulsa has beaten UCF already, and lost to Oklahoma State by 11 points. If the Cowboys run the table from here and Cincinnati needs a positive comparison to them, blowing out a team that Oklahoma State only scored 17 on could be a tiebreaker.
Yes, that’s where this season is currently at. We are seriously talking about an undefeated Cincinnati getting a Playoff bid over a one-loss Big 12 champion. Right now, if both teams win out in the same fashion they’ve been playing so far, I don’t think the selection committee gives Oklahoma State the bid.
What, then, is standing in Cincinnati’s way? For starters, a one-loss Clemson, Alabama, or Ohio State that doesn’t win its respective conference will jump the Bearcats (assuming the champion has only one loss). If Florida or Georgia wins out and beats Alabama in the SEC Championship Game, the SEC will have two teams ahead of Cincinnati. The same is true if Miami wins out, if Notre Dame and Clemson split meetings, or if Ohio State loses the Big Ten Championship Game.
Next, what about the Pac 12? Will a 7-0 USC or Oregon team jump an undefeated Cincinnati team? Maybe. It’s definitely too soon to tell. What is clear is that it’s not guaranteed, especially if the wins are ugly along the way. Seven games isn’t quite enough to compare to ten, but being in the Pac 12 carries weight. A 7-0 Oregon squad is probably Cincinnati’s worst-case scenario here, but we’ll revisit this once we see a few weeks of Pac 12 play.
And, finally, what to do with BYU? BYU is getting some hype, and the computers like the Cougars a bit more than the Bearcats. Still, if we’re judging teams right now, it’s no contest. BYU is shellacking really bad teams; Cincinnati is shellacking pretty good teams. The Cougars have three games remaining on the schedule–two of those are Boise State (this weekend) and San Diego State (December 12th). Win those two as convincingly as the rest of the schedule and we’ll have to discuss BYU as well.
Of course, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: The best thing that Cincinnati and BYU can do for their own Playoff chances is to play each other on December 19th.
Week 9 Implications
We welcome back the MAC, but seeing as the whole conference is only playing conference games, I’ve already eliminated them from the Playoff race. Enjoy the mid-week MACtion, but it won’t affect the Playoff picture at all.
Friday night has three games, all of which have major Playoff implications. The Miami Hurricanes try to keep their dwindling Playoff hopes alive when they travel to N.C. State. A Miami loss would leave only Clemson and Notre Dame as the ACC teams with legitimate shots at the Playoff. San Diego State hosts San Jose State, and BYU would like the Aztecs to stay undefeated as long as possible. Speaking of BYU, the Cougars try to keep their Playoff hopes alive with a trip to Boise State–and the Broncos would like a convincing win to take BYU’s current place at the bottom of the totem pole.
The Big Ten’s path to two bids is already rough, and Michigan beating Indiana could hurt that possibility even further. If the Wolverines win, Ohio State will be the only undefeated Big Ten East team (assuming the Buckeyes beat Rutgers). USC and Oregon both have losable openers, and those two teams falling would be disastrous for the Pac 12. In theory all undefeated Pac 12 teams are equal, but with only seven games there’s not really much time for anyone else to earn the attention necessary to get into the Playoff picture.
West Virginia travels to Texas with a chance to further derail the Big 12’s Playoff chances. A win by the Mountaineers would basically lock the Big 12 into a reasonable maximum three ranked teams at the end of the year, and likely only two. Similarly, Oklahoma State travels to Kansas State, and both teams are coming off tough losses. A Kansas State win would effectively eliminate the entire Big 12 from the Playoff race.
Liberty is ranked, and the Flames travel to Virginia Tech. A win over Liberty would be good for both Virginia Tech’s and the ACC’s reputation.
Of course, we can’t miss Florida-Georgia. Florida has the slightly more difficult remaining schedule, so the SEC would probably like to see Georgia win the game. Cincinnati would like to see that too, as it lowers the quality of Texas A&M’s best win.
Lastly, in the evening, the biggest game of the week. The ACC would like to see Notre Dame win this game–not only does Clemson have the easier remaining schedule, but the committee is likely to be more forgiving of a Clemson loss without Trevor Lawrence. And if these two meet in a rematch in the ACC Championship Game in seven weeks, a Clemson win coming back would likely get the ACC two teams into the Playoff.
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