I was ready to write this post on Sunday, looking at the action from the SEC and Big 12. And, of course, the return of the Big Ten. Ohio State looked like a potential Playoff contender. Wisconsin, Michigan, and maybe Northwestern looked like potential contenders. And Cincinnati and BYU both made pushes for potential for a fourth Playoff spot. Yes, there was a ton of action on the field this week.
And then, Sunday morning, the news of Graham Mertz’s positive COVID test came. So I waited. The conclusion of this saga will have more impact on the CFP race than anything that took place on the football field. Would Mertz really miss three weeks? How will the selection committee view that? Will Wisconsin miss games?
In Week 2, I discussed the idea of what happens if games are canceled. The committee can still do whatever it wants and just games however it sees. And now, finally, a major issue will force them to deal with it. I also mentioned that nothing about the season has to be set in stone. Bowl games can be delayed and things can be pushed off. It does not seem, however, that anyone is really interested in utilizing that option. Why not is a question, but that’s where things seem to stand.
So what happens with Wisconsin? The Badgers will play fewer games than just about any contender this year. Will the committee give a pass on that? Will it matter? What happens if a major game––say, Wisconsin against Michigan––also gets canceled? How will the committee judge Wisconsin in that case? How will it judge Michigan?
And, of course, what happens if Wisconsin comes back next week (this week’s game against Nebraska was already canceled) and struggles without Mertz, but goes back to looking like a potential world-beater with him? What if the Badgers lose two games without him but then go on to win the Big Ten?
The selection committee protocols has always said that the committee can take injuries into account. Now, forced sitting out because of a positive COVID test isn’t quite an injury, but it should likely be treated the same way. And, with chaos taking shape in conferences over the country, a few losses due to the COVID “suspension” of a star quarterback might be easy to overlook.
Cincinnati and BYU enter the fray
The Cincinnati Bearcats are up to No. 7 in the major polls after thrashing a ranked SMU team. BYU, meanwhile, is receiving plaudits from people like Kirk Herbstreit nationally.
Of course, it’s still far too early to discuss if a fourth spot is opening, but Big Ten insanity helps. If Wisconsin doesn’t play its next few games but otherwise runs the table in the Big Ten West, that should all but eliminate the chances of the Big Ten earning two bids––especially if Ohio State beats Penn State this week. A one-loss Michigan team (losing only to an Ohio State team, or vice versa) would be the Big Ten’s best shot at two bids, but other than that the prospects are dwindling.
The Big 12 already has no shot at two bids, and its odds of a first look slim unless Oklahoma State goes undefeated. There are still paths to two bids for the SEC and ACC, but no particular one looks promising at this moment. That just leaves the Pac 12 for Power 5 conferences. And with the Pac 12 playing a maximum of seven games, we would need to see someone run the table to even get a look.
So where does that leave Cincinnati and BYU? It leaves these two schools in better positions than they ever could have imagined in a normal year. BYU has a problem, though––but it’s a problem that could lead to huge success. The Cougars only have four more games scheduled. They have byes in Weeks 10, 12, and 13. That means that as we see COVID cancellations across the country, BYU might be able to pick up a game or two. Say, for example, that Wisconsin’s game against Michigan is canceled. If the Big Ten permits, BYU putting in a game against Michigan could be a big opportunity for both programs.
Cincinnati, meanwhile, has games upcoming against Memphis, Houston, and UCF. None of those are particularly major opponents this year, but they will earn the Bearcats some credit, especially if Cincinnati wins convincingly.
Here’s one thing to note, though: The AAC Championship Game date has not yet been determined. But if there don’t need to be too many rescheduled games, the game will be played December 12th. Selection Sunday is December 20th. There is definitely room for Cincinnati and BYU to try to play a game that weekend. And if both are coming into that weekend undefeated, it might be very hard to keep the winner of that game out of the Playoff.
Week 8 Implications
This weekend is rife with elimination games, as well as games that will eliminate teams unless we see upsets. LSU vs Auburn will knock out at least one of the two schools, though both are in big trouble already. I expect to eliminate some Big Ten teams this week (Michigan State seems particularly vulnerable), as well. Penn State probably won’t be instantly eliminated with a loss, though the Nittany Lions will as soon as Ohio State clinches the division.
Oklahoma State faces Texas in a game that could essentially eliminate the Big 12 if the Longhorns win. If the SEC wants to keep its best chance of getting two teams in the CFP, Texas A&M needs to keep winning, so all of the Aggies games from here on out matter. Lastly, Cincinnati’s best chance at the CFP depends on SMU’s continued success, so the Mustangs game against Navy matters for more than just the AAC race.
And, of course, keep an eye out for upsets and conference-shaping games all up and down the weekend. It’s still too soon to paint individual scenarios, but we’re getting closer.
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