The Big Ten hasn’t started to play yet. Looking at how the season has gone so far in each of the Power 5 conferences that have begun play already, maybe the Big Ten should be happy about that.
There is one word that can describe the football season so far for each conference.
Big 12: Chaos.
ACC: Chaos.
SEC: Chaos.
How can we even discuss a Playoff picture so far? The Big 12 has such a narrow path to the Playoff. Oklahoma State needs to run the table to have a real chance. The other two leaders of the conference right now? Both Iowa State and Kansas State have losses to Sun Belt teams. Oklahoma and Texas are basically dead in the water after just four games. Maybe Oklahoma State can survive one loss? But things don’t look pretty for the conference as a whole.
Then again, if we look at the rest of the country, it’s not much better. The ACC has Clemson, who looks like a dominant, Playoff-worthy team so far. After that, finding a potential second bid really won’t be so simple anymore. With North Carolina losing to Florida State, along with Notre Dame’s lackluster performance against Louisville, it’s hard to find a serious contender for a second bid. Perhaps Miami could fill that role, though that’s far from a good option, at least as of now.
Why are we already looking for a second bid from any conference? Well, with the Big 12 already on the ropes and the Pac 12 only playing seven games, the fourth Playoff team has to come from somewhere. If it won’t be the Big 12 or Pac 12, then it will either be a second team from a power conference or a team from outside the power conferences, somehow.
We’ve already established that the Big 12 is in trouble and that the ACC’s paths to a second team are looking more slim. Well, what about the SEC?
SEC teams have played no more than four games, and we are already down to just one undefeated team. Not only did Georgia not come particularly close to beating Alabama, but the league has seen upsets across the board over the past few weeks. There are limited opportunities for elite wins in-conference now, with Florida, Tennessee, and Auburn all having suffered upsets, on top of LSU’s disappointment so far. Florida is a potential elite team if it can win out–but the Gators wouldn’t add much to anyone else’s resume, other than Texas A&M. The Aggies are beginning to stand out, though. They will be in the conversation if Alabama is their only loss, but it’s so hard to predict anyone doing that at this point.
No. Of the teams playing so far, there are two clear early Playoff contenders: Clemson and Alabama. Everyone else is at least a step behind already.
Which, of course, sets the stage for the Big Ten to begin play. Does the Big Ten have two potential Playoff teams? Does it even have one? Conventional wisdom is that Ohio State is in the Clemson and Alabama tier, but that only goes so far once the games actually begin.
Searching for a fourth team
This has been a recurring theme all season, because it has been an obvious potential issue from the outset. (Of course, the precise nature of the question has changed, since the Big Ten and Pac 12 decided to hold seasons.) Still, we’ve been stuck looking for a fourth team to join Alabama, Clemson, and (presumably) Ohio State.
Of course, this is still a big premature. There is plenty of time for Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State to lose a game or two and fall out of consideration. Maybe we’ll see a conference championship game upset (which, at this point, might be the easiest way to get a league two bids).
Other than that, though, things get dicey. We are clearly looking at another situation where the #1 seed will be so important to generate an easier semifinal matchup. We’re not ready to talk scenarios in full detail yet, but we could be looking at Cincinnati or even BYU getting some actual consideration. We can’t know for sure until the Pac 12 begins playing in November, of course–which is all part of what makes this year so much crazier than usual.
I will mention a few things about BYU, though. The Cougars face a weak schedule, though not quite as weak as it looked when the season began. Late additions of Boise State and San Diego State will help. But BYU needs to be making the Boise State argument from the late 2000s. The Cougars need to blow all of their weaker opponents completely out of the water. Maybe they have already ruined that by only beating UTSA by a touchdown. But if BYU can keep crushing teams–especially somewhat-decent teams–the Cougars might get a second glance before all is said and done.
Week 7 Implications
The Big Ten begins play this week. With no nonconference games, in theory everyone starts out exactly the same. In reality, bad teams upsetting better teams will hurt the conference as a whole moving forward when it comes to the Playoff. Similarly, still be on the lookout for upsets around the country. A loss by Notre Dame or Virginia Tech would hurt the ACC a lot.
Speaking of the ACC, the battle between North Carolina and N.C. State suddenly became much more interesting. The Tar Heels went from a path to the Playoff to needing to upset an in-state rival just to stay alive. Ironically enough, because the Wolfpack now has an easier remaining schedule, the conference is better off with an N.C. State win.
In the Big 12, Iowa State travels to Stillwater to face Oklahoma State. An Iowa State win would be huge for the program but a disaster for the conference overall. I won’t be eliminating either of those two yet if that happens, but a Cyclones win would very likely signal the end of the Big 12’s Playoff hopes this year.
And, lastly, the AAC’s pipe dream is on the line Saturday night when Cincinnati visits SMU. Can the Bearcats keep their Top 10 ranking and slim Playoff hopes alive? If not, BYU might start to perk up a bit. Of course, again, these non-P5 teams are waiting for more chaos in the power conferences. But based on the season so far, there’s no reason that we can’t see plenty more.
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