Week 5 CFP Implications: Two-Bid SEC Takes a Hit, Two-Bid ACC Potential

I have already spoken about the chaos in the Big 12 just about every week so far. Things are not looking good for the conference, and Oklahoma’s victory over Texas doesn’t help. Oklahoma State is still undefeated, and there’s a decent chance that either Iowa State or Kansas State finishes with one loss. The conference isn’t out of things yet, but the outlook certainly isn’t good.

So where does that leave the rest of the country? With the Pac 12 playing a maximum of seven games, it’s not at all clear how much attention the west coast teams will get. In general, the SEC would be expected to be the conference best poised to get two bids to the CFP. However, that took a major hit this week.

After Texas A&M upset Florida this past week, the SEC is down to just two remaining undefeated teams–and Georgia and Alabama will meet in the regular season (this coming Saturday, COVID-permitting). That’s right. After just four games, the SEC will have only one unbeaten team remaining.

Now, of course there are still paths for the SEC to earn two Playoff spots. And it’s way too early to write out any team. There is also a definite chance that a two-loss SEC team would get consideration over a one-loss Pac 12 champion. But the SEC has more than just the Pac 12 to worry about. Coming into the season, we might have assumed that the SEC was the most likely to field two bids. But now the conference will have to worry about how the ACC and Big Ten seasons take shape.

The ACC’s clear path

The ACC, on the other hand, now has a very strong two-bid scenario. Clemson and North Carolina will not meet in the regular season, and both teams have pretty simple paths to an undefeated regular season. Clemson’s only real dangerous remaining opponent is Notre Dame. There are, of course, always potential pitfalls on a schedule–don’t overlook games against Pitt and Virginia Tech to close the regular season–but Clemson has to feel pretty confident about going undefeated if it wins in South Bend.

Similarly, the Tar Heels should have a manageable remaining schedule. Games do remain against Notre Dame and Miami, but North Carolina has to feel solid about its chances of going undefeated. And if two undefeated teams meet in the ACC Championship Game, the loser will certainly have a strong argument for the Playoff, assuming the game is competitive.

This isn’t even the ACC’s only path to getting two teams in the Playoff. If a one-loss Miami or Notre Dame team upsets an undefeated Clemson in the ACC Championship Game, the conference would be very likely to get two teams in, almost regardless of the rest of the country (assuming there are not three other undefeated Power 5 teams).

It’s definitely still too early to map out super-specific scenarios. And we definitely need to wait to see how the Big Ten (and to a lesser extent, the Pac 12) season develops before we really judge the country as a whole. But from where things sit now, the ACC has to like its odds of putting two teams in the CFP.

Week 6 Implications

BYU visits Houston on Friday night in a game that could really help the AAC keep itself on the fringes of the Playoff conversation. The conference’s only team with even a slim shot is Cincinnati (SMU and Houston would take several miracles), but a win by the Cougars would get them ranked as they get ready for AAC play. On Saturday, meanwhile, Cincinnati travels to Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane already took UCF out of the Playoff picture. Not only would another win basically eliminate the entire AAC, it could provide a much-needed resume boost to Oklahoma State, who beat Tulsa back in September.

Other than that, the obvious impactful games are the obvious ones. Keep an eye out for upsets. If the SEC wants two bids, the better scenario is one where Georgia upsets Alabama–especially if the Tide can parlay some sympathy from Nick Saban’s absence. Also, in the ACC, be wary of Pitt upsetting Miami. The Hurricanes play North Carolina while Pitt does not. Not only would a Pitt win directly hurt one of the conference’s paths to two bids, but it would also reduce the quality of a North Carolina win over Miami. If the Tar Heels slip up before the ACC Championship Game, they’ll need some quality wins. Looking at the schedule, there aren’t many, and taking Miami out of that equation would hurt.

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