Week 4 CFP Eliminator: So Many Variables

As I mentioned before, this is a strange year for the Eliminator. It’s a strange year for everything, sure, but the Eliminator is no exception. Group of 5 eliminations aren’t coming at their usual more steady pace (the Mountain West hasn’t even started playing), and the Power 5 conferences are starting in such different times and manners that it’s impossible to really judge them wholesale yet.

As I mentioned in CFP Implications, the Big 12 is in trouble. How much trouble, precisely, we don’t know–because other conferences just haven’t played as many games. Big 12 teams are certainly on the precipice, but it’s impossible to know as of now just how steep the cliff is. For a few more weeks, at least, we’re mostly in wait and see mode.

In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams in this Twitter thread. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.

How it works

I need to start with two notes about the process.

1. The premise: My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only–if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to do it assuming a future loss.

Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are. Keep in mind that this season will be a weird one, so I may have to replace my “judging by 2007” standard, but for now I can stick with it.

Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.

2. Group of 5 teams: My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory–crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance. This year I am somewhat going against this policy, but I’m holding to it as much as I can.

Week 3: Teams Remaining

As the season goes on, I’ll add more detailed notes by each team explaining why a questionable team has not yet been eliminated.

ACC:

Big 12:

Big Ten:

Pac 12:

SEC:

Independents: BYU, Liberty

AAC: Houston, Cincinnati, SMU, Temple

Conference-USA: Marshall

MAC: None

Mountain West: The MWC will start play in late October. Decisions on elimination will come then.

Sun Belt: Louisiana, Coastal Carolina

Teams Eliminated

Also, as the season goes on, and when I start eliminating Power 5 teams, I’ll give more detail in the reason for each elimination. For now, the reason is simple. Any Group of 5 team that loses a game is out.

Week 4:

Week 3:

Week 2:

Week 1:

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