It was obvious when they started playing two weeks ago that there were potential pitfalls for the Big 12. With a disastrous Week 1 that saw bad losses from three teams in the conference, plus a near-loss by Texas Tech to a bad FCS team, the conference could little afford upsets during the season–especially if those upsets came from one of the Week 1 losers.
Well, two weeks later, the Big 12 got exactly what it did not need. Kansas State, with a very ugly loss to Arkansas State on its resume, knocked off AP No. 3 and conference favorite Oklahoma. On top of that, Texas barely survived a battle against Texas Tech. Had the Longhorns also fallen, we might be writing off the Big 12’s Playoff chances right now. As it is, though, the conference is in terrible shape. Good wins look nearly impossible to come by, and most losses are going to look pretty bad.
So, where does that leave the CFP? With the Pac 12 starting its season so late, it’s not yet clear how much consideration the selection committee will give the conference. The committee does have flexibility, though it has not yet said what it plans on doing. Still, conventional wisdom indicated that we were looking at getting the champions from the ACC, SEC, Big Ten, and Big 12.
Now, we may very well see that–I should be perfectly clear that I am not writing off the Big 12 yet. Someone could definitely run the table, and any one-loss champion will at least receive consideration. That being said, we’re very early in the season and the conference is already on the ropes. So, if the Big 12 should continue to struggle, where does that leave us? I won’t map out individual scenarios, but there are two main options, plus one secondary one.
The Pac 12
This is obvious. The Pac 12 also has its issues with parity and no major standout teams, but Oregon, USC, and Washington all have definite potential. If any of those teams (or anyone else, but I wouldn’t expect it from anyone else as of now) is undefeated and looks very strong heading into December, don’t be shocked if the selection committee says it will wait an extra week to determine the four Playoff teams. Now, there are reasons the CFP may not want to do this, especially if it means pushing the Rose Bowl off New Year’s Day (though without a Rose Parade this year, the game may be more flexible), but this would certainly be superior to leaving a potentially deserving team out of the Playoff.
A second team
We haven’t seen the Big Ten play, so we don’t know if anyone will impress enough to really merit consideration, though anyone with just a close loss to Ohio State could definitely get a peek. Similarly, the ACC and SEC each have plenty of good teams. We’ll have to wait to see how those seasons shake out–the SEC this week definitely showed the potential for some parity and chaos, which would hurt the league’s chances of getting multiple bids–but we could definitely see two teams from either of those conferences. If any team has only one loss, and that loss is a competitive one to Clemson or Alabama, that team will get plenty of benefit of the doubt. And, of course, there’s always the possibility that someone else goes undefeated and that Clemson, Alabama, or Ohio State is the one-loss team looking at a bid. If the Big 12 doesn’t present a team, those three would definitely have the inside track to the fourth bid.
When does the AAC enter play
The American Athletic Conference already has two teams in the Top 15. If both Cincinnati and UCF go undefeated, the winner of the matchup between those two teams will be ranked pretty high. If the Pac 12 eats itself up and the Big 12 doesn’t have a top team, this might be the year for the AAC to get some consideration. Of course, we are nowhere near the level of chaos that makes realistic scenarios about this worth discussing, but it’s something to keep in the back of our minds. If there’s no clear second-place team in the ACC, SEC, or Big Ten, and if the Big 12 collapses further, we may be looking at the a real discussion involving UCF or Cincinnati. (Keep in mind that the AAC Championship Game this year is between the top two teams in the conference, so UCF and Cincinnati may face each other twice. Houston and SMU, though, each only play UCF, so Cincinnati could have wins over three one-loss teams, and will have to face one of them again.)
The Louisiana Hail Mary
This is not really a serious scenario, but it’s always a fun one. The Group of 5 dream is to beat a Power 5 team then have that team run the table in its conference. They probably wouldn’t get the bid even if this happened, but it’s worth noting the scenario that both the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns and the Iowa State Hawkeyes win out from here.
It’s also worth mentioning that this year’s BYU team could be one of the best in school history, though the Cougars don’t really have the schedule to make a serious claim. November is open for them, though, so maybe they’ll find a way to schedule some teams and make a case for themselves. It’s unfortunate for BYU that this happened, but it’s really hard to see anyone considering the Cougars, even if they win every game by over 40 points.
Week 4 Implications
It’s not yet worth discussing precise scenarios and which games matter more than most. For now, we’re just keeping an eye on the ACC, SEC, and Big 12 games, we we’re seeing where upsets can happen and what can add further parity. Remember, if any of these conferences want to get two (or one, in the Big 12’s case) teams in the Playoff, they don’t want to see upsets. And if Oklahoma State (at Kansas), Texas (vs TCU), or Oklahoma (at Iowa State) falls this week, the conference’s rocky position gets even more precarious.
Of course, there are a ton of big and impactful games this weekend. Georgia faces Auburn and Alabama meets Texas A&M, to start. The ACC has a light week, though we’ll get another chance to look at Clemson. I can’t give the implications for any of the SEC games yet, because the season is still just taking form there. We’ll definitely be back to dissect the aftermath, that’s for sure.
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