Week 1 CFP Eliminator: We don’t even know what we don’t know

Welcome to the first edition of what will be the strangest year ever for my CFP Eliminator. I would like to once again thank my friends here at All Sports Discussion for hosting it this year.

The goal is simple: We are going to count down every single FBS team that remains in contention for a College Football Playoff bid. We start with all of the FBS teams, and they get eliminated one by one until only a few remain.

If the Playoff teams are obvious, we will only have four remaining Selection Sunday morning, like last year. If, like 2018, there is a serious bubble with multiple teams with strong claims for the fourth spot, then we might have five (or, in 2014 and 2018, six) still alive on Selection Sunday.

In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams on this Twitter thread. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.

This year, to begin, we don’t know anything. We ostensibly know the date of Selection Sunday, and we’re pretty sure we know the maximum number of teams competing. The Big Ten will play a (somewhat) regular season. As of now, it appears that the Pac 12, Mountain West, and MAC will not. Every conference has rescheduled in some ways for this year, and expect postponements and games to be moved around as cases pop up.

Most years, we don’t know much about how a college football season will pan out. But at least we’re aware of what we know–what teams will play when, if the season will be completed, who the favorites are, etc. This year, while we ostensibly have a schedule, we have to realize that every single detail of the season is potentially still up in the air. Maybe the Pac 12 will play. Maybe other teams or conferences will miss too many games to really be considered. One ill-advised party by the wrong team at the wrong time could throw everything for a loop, or end seasons altogether. This year, we don’t know anything for sure. And with an ever-changing novel virus heading towards its first flu season in the United States, we don’t even know what we don’t know.

How it works

I need to start with two notes about the process.

1. The premise: My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only–if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to do it assuming a future loss.

Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are. Keep in mind that this season will be a weird one, so I may have to replace my “judging by 2007” standard, but for now I can stick with it.

Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.

2. Group of 5 teams: My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory–crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance. This year, without major nonconference games, it’s even worse in ways. I have not yet officially eliminated any teams without losses, but we are rapidly approaching a point where I will have to do so for the MAC and Mountain West, if they reverse their decisions about playing. I will also be more willing to eliminate teams before they lose as the season goes on, but we’re not there yet

Week 1: Teams Remaining

As the season goes on, I’ll add more detailed notes by each team explaining why a questionable team has not yet been eliminated. For now, though, we’ll start with just the list. We began the year with 130 teams. We’re not sure how many are playing this year, so the precise countdown won’t begin until we get that number. We have eliminated 11 teams so far, so a maximum of 119 remain in contention.

ACC:

Big 12:

Big Ten:

Pac 12:

SEC:

Independents: Army, BYU, UConn, New Mexico State, Liberty, UMass

AAC: Navy is the only AAC team eliminated so far.

Conference-USA: Marshall, North Texas, Old Dominion, UTSA, Louisiana Tech, FAU, FIU, Rice

MAC: The MAC will likely not play in time to be eligible for the CFP. Expect elimination in a week or two.

Mountain West: The MWC will likely not play in time to be eligible for the CFP. Expect elimination in a week or two.

Sun Belt: Appalachian State, Georgia State, Louisiana, Troy, Georgia Southern, Coastal Carolina, South Alabama

Teams Eliminated

Also, as the season goes on, and when I start eliminating Power 5 teams, I’ll give more detail in the reason for each elimination. For now, the reason is simple. Any Group of 5 team that loses a game is out.

Week 1:

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