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ACC fans know how football works:
Clemson wins everything.
Florida State’s offensive line can’t pass protect.
Boston College runs out of steam.
Dave Clawson overachieves at Wake Forest.
North Carolina State exasperates its fan base.
North Carolina: almost.
Those are just some of the annual realities of the league, some with longer (or shorter) runs than others. (FSU’s O-line used to be beastly in the prime years of Jimbo Fisher’s tenure, for example.)
One of the other distinct features of ACC football is how certain matchups in the Coastal Division cut in one direction far more than the other.
Duke figures out Georgia Tech.
Georgia Tech figures out North Carolina (save for 2014-2016). The Yellow Jackets have lost just five times to UNC since Mack Brown left Chapel Hill at the end of the 1997 season.
North Carolina figures out Pittsburgh.
Virginia Tech beats Virginia (though that should end this year).
Pittsburgh beats Duke.
This brings us to Week 6’s biggest ACC game. Yes, you heard that right: Saturday’s most important ACC game is Pitt at Duke. It is certainly more important than Virginia Tech at Miami.
Weird, I know… but true.
The winner of this game has the most realistic chance of catching Virginia in the ACC Coastal and being the lead contender to the Hoos for the division title, though North Carolina would have an argument to make.
Virginia Tech, Miami and Georgia Tech all look awful. The Pitt-Duke-UNC trio represents a group of challengers to Virginia, so this Panther-Blue Devil battle represents the Coastal’s first key “sorting out” moment of the season. The next one will be Virginia at Miami on Friday, Oct. 11.
Both Pitt and Duke have enjoyed eye-opening moments of success this season. Pitt upset UCF, pulling off yet another big upset for the fourth year in a row (Clemson 2016, Miami 2017, Syracuse 2018). Duke crushed Virginia Tech on the road. The Hokies are a bad team, but Duke winning any ACC road night game by more than 30 points is noteworthy. The Blue Devils don’t get to flex their muscles that often in such situations.
Now we get to see how these teams match up against each other. Pittsburgh’s players who are returning from last season’s roster know how to beat Duke. The Blue Devils know that Pitt has been a pronounced problem for them.
Some fast facts about Pitt-Duke:
Duke has won only once in six tries since Pitt joined the ACC — and the Coastal Division — in 2013.
Duke has beaten Pitt only once since 1966.
Duke has lost twice to Pitt this decade despite scoring at least 45 points in a game.
Duke has allowed an average of 45.2 points to Pitt in these six ACC games against the Panthers.
Duke’s lone win over Pitt this decade (and since 1966) was a game in which it allowed 48 points to the Panthers.
Pitt quarterback Kenny Pickett has been banged up this season. Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi doesn’t know if Pickett will play against Duke, but given the way this series has gone, Duke should take nothing for granted. The Blue Devils have been befuddled and baffled by the Panthers on days when they were expected to win. David Cutcliffe should expect a passing attack far more polished than what Virginia Tech provided.
That is a very low bar, since one could argue Virginia Tech has no passing attack at all. That is precisely part of the point.
Duke received no challenge whatsoever from the Hokies’ passing game. Pitt — with or without Pickett — might look like the 1999 St. Louis Rams or the 1984 BYU Cougars in comparison. Duke’s back seven better be ready to cover receivers in open space and shut off big plays.
Otherwise, Pitt’s penchant for solving Duke’s defense will continue unabated… much as Pitt’s knack for the big season-changing upset has also remained intact this year.
Pitt versus Duke. It’s a big ACC game.
Really? Hey, I don’t make the news. I only try to analyze it.
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