Following Week 2 is way too early to make grand pronouncements about the College Football Playoff. It’s a long season (yet somehow always too short), and just about anything can happen. Ohio State Buckeye fans still love to mock Clay Travis for declaring the Big Ten “out of the Playoff” after Week 2 in 2014, and we all know how that turned out.
So I’m not here to make pronouncements. It’s definitely too early for that. Instead, I’m here to point out scenarios and their likelihoods. And compare to previous years, so that we can judge this season. And all of that tells us one thing–it’s hard to see a scenario where an ACC team not named Clemson makes the CFP this year.
Okay, I’ll amend that slightly. It’s very easy to see many such scenario. Those scenarios entail an ACC team (Miami not included) running the table. Any conference team at 12-1 will be an almost definite Playoff team, and any at 13-0 will be a Playoff lock. So what I should have said is this: it’s hard to see a likely scenario where an ACC team not named Clemson makes the CFP this year.
The ranking issue
The first, and biggest, problem is obvious. The ACC has no highly-ranked teams other than Clemson. Yes, Virginia also slides in at No. 25 in the AP Poll and sits at No. 26 in the Coaches’. That’s still below the lowest a Playoff team has ever been ranked. Ohio State reached No. 22 in the AP Poll in 2014 after its Week 2 loss, while the Coaches’ Poll record is held by 2015 Oklahoma, who started low and hit No. 19.
The reason we rarely see teams rise from nothing to the Playoff is because college football voters are usually very good at identifying potential top teams. Sometimes there are busts, sure, where highly-ranked preseason teams will collapse and fall out. But, almost always, a team that has elite potential is recognized by the media or coaches before the season.
In fact, Ohio State in 2014 fits that mold as well. The Buckeyes were an obviously talented team that started the season with a high ranking. Unfortunately, star quarterback Braxton Miller was out for the year with a shoulder injury, and replacement J.T. Barrett struggled in his first two games. Perhaps the fall all the way to No. 22 for the Buckeyes that week was an overreaction. As Barrett improved throughout the year and the Buckeyes became a dominant team, the ranking shot up.
The other example, 2015 Oklahoma, was underrated because no one had heard of its quarterback. Baker Mayfield was a transfer from Texas Tech who had just sat out a year. Oklahoma also hadn’t been a dominant force in a few years. It’s easy to see how the Sooners were overlooked at the start of the year, yet they were still respected enough to be ranked.
2019 applications
So, we have our two examples of teams that were ranked low at one point in the season yet managed to reach the Playoff. Do any ACC teams potentially fit that bill for this season?
In short, the answer is no. Florida State is loaded with talent and could potentially have been a sleeper, but anyone who watched the Seminoles’ first two games can be pretty sure that this won’t be their year.
Syracuse was the only other ACC team to be ranked so far this year, and the absolute beatdown that the Orange suffered against Maryland will likely preclude it from any serious Playoff consideration. Virginia and North Carolina are nice stories so far, but it’s hard to see them having the talent to run the table. Everyone else in the conference is either untested or already has a loss.
The Clemson problem
Clemson, seemingly, has no problems. The Tigers are heavily favored in each of their remaining games. It’s hard to go unbeaten in college football, but it’s also hard to see where this Clemson team loses a game. And if this Clemson team doesn’t lose a game, it will sail into the Playoff.
The problem for Clemson, though, is if it does lose a game. There are obvious parallels between Clemson this year and another 2015 team–Ohio State. The Buckeyes were coming off a convincing National Championship and were heavily expected to be the best team in the country. What happened? The Buckeyes underperformed before finally losing a game to Michigan State. With only one ranked win on the season, Ohio State didn’t have the resume–though it obviously had the talent–to earn a Playoff spot.
As of now, Clemson only has one ranked team on the schedule. Of course, North Carolina and Boston College (and maybe even South Carolina) can change that. But if Clemson starts underperforming and drops a game, it will be very interesting to see what the selection committee does with that resume. Of course, it will also depend on the national picture and the resumes of the other teams in the hunt.
Final thoughts
As I said at the outset, it’s a long season. And while it’s hard to see who in the conference has a chance at a Playoff run (other than Clemson), the beauty of college football is that hard to see things happen all the time.
One thing is very clear for the conference, though. The ACC cannot afford parity this year. It needs ranked teams, which means that one or two non-Clemson teams have to step up. Maybe Virginia already has. Maybe it will be North Carolina or Boston College. Maybe Virginia Tech can turn things around.
Virginia, Virginia Tech, Boston College, and Duke all have a big opportunity in playing Notre Dame. If all four lose their games against the Irish, it will be very hard for the conference to have more than two or three ranked teams at the end of the season. There are just too many losses going around. With a 15-5 record in nonconference play already, those losses are adding up. And if you look at the rest of the schedules–with games against Georgia, Penn State, and UCF, just to name a few–there are almost certainly more coming. Also keep in mind that North Carolina’s “nonconference” game against Wake Forest guarantees another loss for an ACC team. Losses add up fast, and they seriously impact teams’ chances of being ranked come December.
I’ll repeat once more, so no one mistakes what I’m saying here. This is college football, and anything can happen. But the ACC is running out of scenarios for a non-Clemson team to make the CFP, and that’s a very bad thing to happen so early in the season.
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