It’s weird to talk about the ACC’s Playoff contenders this year. Mostly because there is one team that is so far out ahead of the league that it’s considered a Playoff near-lock, something we have yet to see in the CFP era. Different betting markets have the line on Clemson reaching the CFP anywhere from -500 to -750. Those odds are absurd.
ESPN’s Playoff Predictor has Clemson at over 80% to make the Playoff. Of course, the Playoff Predictor is nonsense anyway, but the FPI numbers aren’t usually off by too much. FPI’s attitude on Clemson this year is bonkers. FPI projects Clemson at over 12 wins this year; the Tigers are given over an 85% chance to win each of their games, and more impressively 49% to go undefeated. That’s unheard-of for a power conference team.
It’s not just FPI. Bill Connelly hasn’t released his S&P+ game-by-game probabilities this year since moving from SBNation to ESPN, but he projects Clemson to win 11 games–and that’s just in the regular season. And the long and short of it is that Clemson’s schedule doesn’t really matter. Even ignoring that Clemson has one of the best nonconference schedules of any ACC team, it’s irrelevant. The Tigers have earned a benefit of the doubt from the selection committee. If Clemson wins the ACC while going 12-1 or better, it’s in the Playoff.
Everyone else
But what if, somehow, Clemson doesn’t win the conference? Or what if Clemson manages to lose two or three games? Does the ACC have any other contenders? The short answer, honestly, is not really. The long answer is that I don’t care about the short answer, because insanity happens in college football on a regular basis. So who has a chance, and why? Let’s look at the schedules to see.
Miami Hurricanes
Miami has three major points in its advantage. The first is a “Week 0” national spotlight game against Florida. The Gators have a ton of preseason hype, and could be a real challenge to Georgia in the SEC East. A win over Florida would be huge for Miami. On top of that, the Hurricanes have an otherwise easy nonconference schedule. The committee has tended to fall for this in the past–it gives good credit to a team that plays one big nonconference game and three cupcakes.
The final point in Miami’s favor is that it doesn’t play Clemson in the regular season. That’s one fewer likely loss on the resume. If Miami can get to the ACC Championship Game with one loss, a win over Clemson would very likely put the Hurricanes in the Playoff.
Syracuse Orange
Syracuse is considered by many to be Clemson’s biggest threat, mostly due to head-to-head results the last two years. Getting by Clemson to win the division would obviously be a huge feather in any team’s cap, but there doesn’t seem to be much more potential on a Syracuse resume. The biggest nonconference game is a trip to Maryland. The cross-divisional games are Pitt and Duke. Unless the ACC is much more impressive overall this year than last year–a definite possibility, but far from guaranteed–Syracuse would likely need to be undefeated to feel confident about getting on. 12-1 with a win over Clemson could be enough, but that will depend on the national landscape in November.
Florida State Seminoles
The Seminoles have nonconference games against Boise State and Florida. The Broncos might not be the powerhouse of a decade ago, but that’s still a solid nonconference schedule. Of course, given Florida State’s struggles recently, it would require a major turnaround to get the Seminoles anywhere near the Playoff. Florida State is a blue-blood, though, and full of top-level recruits. The talent is there, and the schedule is too. With cross-division games against Miami and Virginia, this team has one of the better schedules in the country, especially from the committee’s point of view. The challenge is beating Clemson (on the road, to boot), but do that and the Seminoles will be a serious Playoff contender–even with a loss (or possibly even two).
Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia has made impressive strides under Bronco Mendenhall. The Cavaliers throttled South Carolina in the Belk Bowl last year, and there is good reason for optimism in Charlottesville. The Coastal should be wide open, and Virginia could be in a similar position to Miami. Then again, Virginia has a weaker nonconference schedule. But get to the ACC Championship Game with just one loss and beat Clemson there? That would definitely keep Virginia in the mix.
Duke Blue Devils
Duke’s not going to be a Playoff contender. But the Blue Devils have one of the best nonconference schedules in the country. They face both Alabama and Notre Dame. The Coastal Division, as mentioned, is wide open. If Duke can somehow win the Coastal, even with two losses, then a win against Clemson will put the Blue Devils in the conversation. As long as the games are respectable (and, against Alabama, that means within 30 points), the committee would absolutely forgive losses to Alabama and Notre Dame.
That’s it. That’s the list. And, if we’re being honest, Virginia and Duke likely don’t belong here. Miami, Syracuse, and Florida State are long enough long shots on their own. Still, anything can happen in college football. Boston College, for example, plays three Power 5 teams in nonconference play. Will the committee give extra credit for that? Probably not, considering two of the three are Kansas and Rutgers. Like I’ve said, though, anything can happen in college football. Maybe we will see Boston College in the Playoff. I wouldn’t count on it, but you never know. Someday, that nonconference game against Kansas will put a team over the top. Don’t expect it in 2019, even with some Les Miles magic.
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